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transcript
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The Economy During Crisis
April 7, 2020
Presented by:Curtis Dubay, Lead Economist, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Moderated by: Joe Trauger, Vice President of Government Relations, National Club Association
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Henry Wallmeyer
President and CEONational Club Association
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Joe Trauger
Vice President of Government RelationsNational Club Association
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What's Ahead
• Congress returns April 20, 2020• Guidance from Treasury and SBA• Phase IV Relief Bill
• Contact your Member of Congress and Senators• 501(c)7 organizations not eligible for SBA relief• Share challenges of small businesses• Reductions in staff• No certainty of when they can reopen• People shouldn't be left behind in relief efforts• Clubs doing their part to slow spread
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Curtis Dubay
Lead Economist U.S. Chamber of Commerce
695,000
211,000 282,000
3,307,000
6,648,000
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
October 1982 Week ending March7
Week ending March14
Week ending March21
Week ending March28
Historically High Unemployment Insurance Claims Last Week
-9.5%
-11.7% -11.9% -12.0% -12.0%-12.9%
-14.7%
-19.2% -20.0%
-25.0%
-26.5%
-28.0%
-30.0% -30.1%
-34.0%
-40.0%-40.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
UBSBerenberg
CapitalOxford
Economics CitigroupCredit Suisse
Deutsche Bank Wells Fargo Average
First Investors
Trust JPMorgan IHS Markit CBOBank of America
Morgan Stanley
Goldman Sachs Cap Econ
Second Quarter Contraction Will Be Steep
2.1%
-4.2%
-19.2%
4.3% 5.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%2019 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
U.S. Economic Growth will Contract Sharply in Q1 and Q2 Before Rebounding Later in the Year
Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Various
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Curtis Dubay
Lead Economist U.S. Chamber of Commerce