THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR ARABLE CROPS AND BIOFUELS

Session 7

Barthelemy LanosUnit Analysis and Outlook,DG Agriculture and Rural Development, European Commission

ARABLE CROPS

OUTLOOK 2019-2030

STAKE-HOLDERS

TradeProcessing

Retail

FARMERLand

Production

CONSUMERHEALTH

ENVIRONMENT

ETHICS

PRICEORIGIN

CONVENIENCE

EU AGRICULTURAL LAND KEEPSON REDUCING… LAND

TRADEPROCESS

PROD

CONS-CITIZEN

Land consolidationSpecialisationRotation systemsFeed demand

Main drivers

AfforestationUrbanisation

INPUTS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2019 2030

EU agricultural land (million ha)

Permanent pasture-

178

*Others: Roots & Tubers, Fruits & Vegetables, Rice, Fallow

Fodder

Cereals & protein crops

OilseedsSugar beet

-+

175

+

Others*

…WITH A MODERATEYIELD GROWTH

CONS-CITIZEN

Moderate yield increase

LAND

TRADEPROCESS

PROD

CONS-CITIZEN

INPUTSHealth

Research

Environment

Climatechange

Farming4.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0Yield (tonnes/ha)

Maize (EU-15) Soft wheatMaize (EU-N13) Sugar beet (right axis)

TIME FOR A SLIDO BREAK

Go to Slido.comEvent code #AgriOutlook

Which region in the world uses the most soya beans, in kg per capita ?

1. Latin America2. The EU3. Africa4. North America5. Asia6. The Black Sea

…WHO USES SOYA BEANS ? LAND

TRADEPROCESS

PROD

CONS-CITIZEN

INPUTS

0

50

100

150

200

250

Africa Asia Black Sea EU-28 North America Latin America

Consumption per capita (kg/capita/year)

2010 2020 2030

EU TRADE STRENGTHENSIN THE FUTURE

NET IMPORTER

NET EXPORTER

SUGAR+0.5 mt

BARLEY+0.7 mt

WHEAT+4.8 mt

SOYA BEANS-2.3 mt

MAIZE-1.4 mt

LAND

TRADEPROCESS

PROD

CONS-CITIZEN

INPUTS

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40EU net trade (million tonnes)

Soft wheat Sugar Maize Soya beans BarleyFigures represent the change compared to the average 2017-2019

…WHILE DOMESTIC MARKETIS THRIVING

FOOD• Evolution of diet• Health concerns

FEED• Dynamic demand• Locally-produced

INDUSTRIAL• Dynamic bio-economy• More advanced

biofuels

FOOD

GRAIN-BASED

PRODUCTS

PROTEINS

SUGAR

FEED

CEREALS

OILSEED MEALS

PROTEIN CROPS

INDUSTRIAL

BIOFUELS

BIOGAS

BIO ECONOMY

LAND

TRADE PROCESS

PROD

CONS-CITIZEN

INPUTS

STAKE-HOLDERS

TradeProcessing

Retail

FARMERLand

ProductionHEALTH

ENVIRONMENT

ETHICS

PRICEORIGIN

CONVENIENCE

HEALTHCONSUMER

THANK YOU !#AgriOutlook

© European Union, 2019 │ © fotoVoyager, #165807391-170054274-453281653-508212549-537698055, iStockPhoto.com

THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR ARABLE CROPS AND BIOFUELS

Session 7