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Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 1
EU Regional competitiveness
The European Commission measures The European Commission measures the level of regional competitivenessthe level of regional competitiveness
Paola AnnoniUnit of Econometrics and Applied StatisticsEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre – Ispra
http://easu.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 2
EU Regional competitiveness
Joint project between DG JRC (Ispra) and DG Regional Policy (Brussels)
Measures the ‘level of competitiveness’ of EU regions at the NUT2 geographical level
RCI 2010 released in September 2010 and will be updated every 2 years
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 3
EU Regional competitiveness
The concept is still controversial among the experts
Stands between micro (firm) and macro (country) competitiveness…. many analogies BUT with key differences:
unsuccessful firms can be expunged from business, underperforming countries cannot
competitions among firms is a zero-sum game (mors tua vita mea), the success of one country is generally positive for surrounding ones (spillover effects)
Territorial competitiveness, what are you?
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 4
EU Regional competitiveness
Meyer-Stamer*, 2008, pg.7:
“We can define (systemic) competitiveness of a territory as the ability of a locality or region to generate high and rising incomes and improve livelihoods of the people living there”
Territorial competitiveness, what are you?
Social and human aspects play a key role
* Meyer-Stamer, Jörg, late German Political Scientist
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 5
EU Regional competitiveness
1. Institutions2. Macroeconomicstability3. Infrastructure4. Health5. Qualityof Primaryand
SecondaryEducation
6. HigherEducation/ Training and LifelongLearning7. LaborMarket Efficiency8. Market Size
9. TechnologicalReadiness10. Business Sophistication11. Innovation
Basic pillars
Efficiencypillars
InnovationpillarsThe RCI framework
Three macro dimensions
Basic Efficiency
Innovation
11 pillars69 indicators(out of 81 candidates)
Data sources: Eurostat OECD-PISA - OECD-Regional Patent Database European Cluster ObservatoryWorld Bank Governance Indicators Ease of Doing BusinessFlash Eurobarometer
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 6
EU Regional competitiveness
Five Basic Pillars
Institutions(country level)
Macro-economic stability(country level)
Infra-structure
HealthPrimary and Secondary Education(country level)
CorruptionFraudGovernance IndicatorsEase of doing business
GovernmentdeficitSaving rateInflationLong term bond yields
RoadRailAir
Road fatalitiesHealthy life expectancyInfant MortalityCancer and heart disease death rateSuicide death rates
OECD PISA forReadingMathsScience
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 7
EU Regional competitiveness
Basic Pillars
• Nordic countries score high
• Macro economic stability low in the south
• Governance and corruption problematic both east and south
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 8
EU Regional competitiveness
Three Efficiency Pillars
Higher education and training Labour Market Efficiency Market Size
GraduatesLifelong learning Early school leaversAccessibility to universities Higher education expenditure
Labour productivityEmployment rate in industry and servicesUnemployment rateLong-term unemploymentGender balance employmentGender balance unemployment
Potential market size expressed in GDPPotential market size expressed in populationGDP Compensation of employeesDisposable income
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 9
EU Regional competitiveness
Efficiency Pillars
• Capital regions consistently score higher than surrounding regions
• Northwest scores best• Southeast scores low
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 10
EU Regional competitiveness
Three Innovation Pillars
Technological readiness Business sophistication Innovation
Household access to broadband or internetIndividuals who ordered online for private useHousehold with access to internetEnterprises use of computers, access to internet, website, intranet, internal networksPersons employed by enterprises with an extranet or internet access
Employment and GVA in Financial and business services (NACE J_K)FDI intensityAggregate indicator for strength of regional clusters (European Cluster Observatory)
Patents Core Creative ClassKnowledge workersScientific publicationsR&D Human Resources in Science Technology (HRST) Hight tech and Knowledge-intensive employmentHigh-tech, ICT, Biotechnology inventors
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 11
EU Regional competitiveness
Innovation Pillars
• Scores are high in the Nordic countries, Benelux, Germany and France
• Portugal and Southeastern EU score low
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 12
EU Regional competitiveness
Steps of the analysis:
Assessment of data quality, consistency and adequacy to the final goal (statistical analysis)
Data transformation and normalization
Data aggregation with different weights to different groups of pillars
Robustness analysis
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 13
EU Regional competitiveness
Weights adjusted according to the level of development of the region(built on WEF-GCI) Three classes:
MEDIUM : <75% of EU GDP 2007 (PPP per head)INTERMEDIATE: between 75% and 100%HIGH: >100% It’s the threshold defined by
EU Commission for eligibility for the ‘Convergence’ objective
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 14
EU Regional competitivenessRCI 2010
Warsaw
Prague
Bratislava
Vienna
Budapest
Bucharest
Athens
Lisboa
Madrid
Paris
Rhône-Alpes
Sofia
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EU Regional competitiveness
Has the blue banana lost a part?
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EU Regional competitiveness
A focus on the Italian situation
Source: 21.09.2010REGIONI D'EUROPA: CHI É PIÙ COMPETITIVO?Paola Annoni , Kornelia Kozovska e Andrea SaltelliLavoce.info – www.lavoce.info
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EU Regional competitiveness
BASILICATA ITF5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Institutions
Macroeconomic stability
InfrastructureHealth
Primary&Secondaryeducation
LOMBARDY ITC4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Institutions
Macroeconomic stability
InfrastructureHealth
Primary&Secondaryeducation
A focus on the Italian situation – basic pillarsVALLE D'AOSTA ITC2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Institutions
Macroeconomic stability
InfrastructureHealth
Primary&Secondaryeducation
LAZIO ITE4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Institutions
Macroeconomic stability
InfrastructureHealth
Primary&Secondaryeducation
RCI 65.3 RCI 35.8
RCI 27.7C RCI 58.5
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 18
EU Regional competitiveness
A focus on the Italian situation – efficiency pillarsLOMBARDY ITC4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Higher education and training
Labor market efficiency Market size
BASILICATA ITF5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Higher education and training
Labor market efficiency Market size
VALLE D'AOSTA ITC2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Higher education and training
Labor market efficiency Market size
LAZIO ITE4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Higher education and training
Labor market efficiency Market size
RCI 65.3 RCI 35.8
RCI 27.7C RCI 58.5
Decima conferenza di statistica – ISTAT Roma 15-16 dicembre 2010 19
EU Regional competitiveness
LOMBARDY ITC4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Technological readiness
Business sophisticationInnovation
A focus on the Italian situation – innovation pillars
BASILICATA ITF5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Technological readiness
Business sophisticationInnovation
VALLE D'AOSTA ITC2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Technological readiness
Business sophisticationInnovation
LAZIO ITE4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0Technological readiness
Business sophisticationInnovation
RCI 65.3 RCI 35.8
RCI 27.7C RCI 58.5
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EU Regional competitiveness
Further analysis (about to be published): Table 1: Correlation coefficients between RCI scores and exogenous indicators. Values in red are statistically significant at the level = 0.05.
RCI_total RCI_eff RCI_inn
population change 01-07 0.11 0.05 0.17
natural population change 01-07 0.11 0.01 0.25
net migration 01-07 0.07 0.06 0.06
share of population in LUZ 0.41 0.44 0.42
GDP growth average 00-07 -0.31 -0.17 -0.36
RCI_total RCI_eff RCI_inn
population change 01-07 0.24 0.29 0.16
natural population change 01-07 0.52 0.50 0.40
net migration 01-07 -0.04 0.04 -0.07
share of population in LUZ 0.21 0.22 0.29
GDP growth average 00-07 -0.21 -0.15 -0.30
RCI_total RCI_eff RCI_inn
population change 01-07 0.33 0.23 0.39
natural population change 01-07 0.27 0.13 0.26
net migration 01-07 0.26 0.22 0.34
share of population in LUZ 0.76 0.79 0.73
GDP growth average 00-07 0.25 0.46 0.36
all countries sample size N =268 critical value for N> 100 at level 0.05 = 0.195
group B sample size N = 65 critical value for N = 60 at level 0.05 = 0.25
group A sample size N =128 critical value for N> 100 at level 0.05 = 0.195
Spatial autocorrelation analysis
Relation with exogenous variables