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IanDunlop&DavidSpratt2017
Facing RealityThe Evidence-Based Case for Urgent Climate Action
Trajectory, Impact, Risk, Solutions
Ian T. DunlopDirector Australia 21
Member, Club of RomeFellow, Centre for Policy Development
Deputy Convenor, Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil
Symposium on Climate Change & World Development3rd-5th May 2017 Rome
IanDunlop&DavidSpratt2017
TRAJECTORYClimate change
• Arctic&WestAntarcticawarming2-3timesfasterthanrest
Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951-1980.Source: update of Hansen et al., NASA GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.
• Happeningfarfaster&moreextensivelythananticipated• Primarilydrivenbyhumancarbonemissionsfromfossilfuel
combustion,agriculture&landclearing
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• Hottestmonthonrecord1.55oC(March)
• GreatBarrierReef:recordwarmoceantemperatures
• TasmaniaWorldHeritagefires
• ScorchingMiddleEastheatwave 54°C
• Recordlowpolarseaiceextent
• AMOCslowdown• RecordfloodsUSA
TRAJECTORY2016: Record year & El Nino
2007-16 0.89oC2014 1.01oC2015 1.12oC2016 1.24oC
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1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
1.5°C
Warmingfrom1880-1900base
Warming“inthesystem”(inertia)
“Verydangerous”boundary
“Incompatiblewithanorganisedglobalcommunity”
Paris aims to “to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”
Parisaim
Parisactions
2.7°C-3.5°C “...Outrightsocialchaos”?
TRAJECTORYParis climate emissions path
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TRAJECTORYPotential climate tipping points
“ControlledImplosionofFossilFuelIndustries”,Schellnhuber,Rahmstorf,Winkelmann,PotsdamInstitute,June2016
IPCCScenarios
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TRAJECTORYArctic methane emissions
• Arisingfrompermafrostmeltandmethaneclathrate transformationfromsolidtogaseousstate.
• Twiceasmuchcarboninpermafrostasatmosphere.Oncemelttakeshold,probablyirreversible.
Belyisland– SiberiaMarch20177000PotentialOutburstSites
Identifiedrecently
Yamal Crater– SiberiaJuly2014MethaneOutburst
30metre diametercrater
MethaneconcentrationovertheArcticfrom2009-13overtheperiodJanuary21st-31steachyear
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Parisaccordhasnoemissionsreductionsbefore2030,whereastheyshouldbedroppingrapidly
TRAJECTORYParis commitments (INDCs) 2015
Source: David Spratt
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IMPACTSDrought
Observedchangeincoldseasonprecipitationfortheperiod1971–2010minus1902–70.Anomalies(mm)arerelativetothe1902–2010period.Hoerlingetal,J.Climate25:2146-61
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IMPACTSSocial consequences
TheSyrian&NorthAfricanrefugeecrisesarefundamentallyclimatechangedriven
Syria
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IMPACTSSea-level risesIPCC
● USDeptofDefence“higher”scenariois2metresby2100● NOAA2017“extreme”scenariois2.5metres● “Pastsealevelvariedby10-20metresforeach1°Cchangeintheglobalaveragetemperature.”Prof.DavidArcher
Whatscientistssay2007:upto0.59metreby21002014:upto0.55/0.82mby2100but“levelsabovethelikelyrangecannotbereliablyevaluated.”
climateandsecurity.org/militaryexpertpanel;NOAATechnicalReportNOSCO-OPS083;www.pik-potsdam.de/~victor/archer.subm.clim.change.pdf
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China’sspecialeconomiczone• 120millionpeopleby2050• 40%China’sexportincome• Mostofarealessthan2
metresabovesealevel• 2ndgreatest(afterKolkata)
no.ofpeopleestimatedtobeatriskofflooding
• “Hard”defencesnotfeasible
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
China: Pearl River Delta
http://www.climatecodered.org/2016/08/how-climate-change-will-sink-chinas.html
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• OverhalfMekongRiverDelta<2metres abovesealevel,largepartsbelow.
• Provides40%Vietnam’sagriculturalproduction,>50%nationalrice,>50%agricultureexports,65%offruitproduction,60%ofcombinedfisheries/aquacultureoutput.
• 60%ofVietnam’surbanareasare1.5metres orlessabovesealevel
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
Vietnam: Mekong River Delta
http://www.climatecodered.org/2016/08/how-climate-change-will-sink-chinas.html
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ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
Egypt: Nile River Delta
http://www.climatecodered.org/2016/08/how-climate-change-will-sink-chinas.html16
Egypt
Cairo
Alexandria
Port Said
Area under Cropland
0 50 100 km
100%
0%
no d
ata
1 meter 2 meters
Low Elevation Coast Zone Urban Extents
0 1 – 4 5 – 24 25 – 249 250 – 999 1,000 +
Population Density, 2000 (persons per km²)
Major Cities
• ThegranaryoftheMiddleEast
• A1-metresea-levelrisewouldfloodone-fourthoftheNileDelta
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• World’s3rd-greatestvolumefreshwater• FeedslargestriverbasinsinAsia,home
to1.3billionpeople• GlacialmeltintoIndus,Gangesand
Brahmaputracontributeupto45percentofriverflow
• Manyglacialsystemsgoneby2050• 4/5th China’sgrainharvestonirrigated
land• FallingwatertablesinIndiaandChina
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau
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“Bangladeshisthegroundzeroofclimatechange”1metresealevelrisewillinundate20%oflandanddisplace30millionpeople
IndiahassurroundedBangladeshwithadoublesecurityfencepatrolledby80,000troops
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS Bangladesh
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RISK1°C warming already dangerous
• Coralreefbleaching
• Arcticsea-icetippingpoint
• Desertification,droughtandconflictinSyria,acrossSahel
• Typhoons/inundation
• WestAntarcticatippingpoint
• Multi-metresealevelriseinthesystem
Ricke,Moerno-Cruzetal(2015,NatureGeoscience9:5–6
IMPACTS BEFORE 2°C
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RISK
To stay below the Paris limits
Source:“TheSky’sLimit”,OilChangeInternational,September2016
• with50%chanceofsuccessfor1.5°C,or66%for2°C• nonewfossilfuelprojectscanbebuilt
• manageddeclineofexistingfossilfuelindustry
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RISK
50% or 60% not good odds for humanity
Source:D.Spratt,M.Raupach,I.Dunlop basedonIPCCAR5,2014
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Probability of success [keeping below 2C°]0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Emissions so far
33% chance of success
50%66%
90% chance of success
Nobudgetleft!
5-95%confidencerange=1- 3.1oC
2oCcarbonbudgetandprobabilityofsuccess
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Ariskposinglargenegativeconsequencestohumanitywhichcanneverbeundone.
Onewhereanadverseoutcomewouldeitherannihilatelifeorpermanentlyanddrasticallycurtailitspotential
RISK
Climate change is an existential risk
www.existential-risk.org/concept.html
Global
Local
Personal
EndurableTerminalINTENSITY
Carisstolen
Recession
Ozonethinning
Death
Genocide
Existential
SCOPE
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RISK AND CLIMATE POLICYWhat are the chances?Warming Impacts Probability
(Parispath)
4°C “Incompatiblewithanorganizedglobalcommunity… likelytobebeyond‘adaptation’…highprobabilityofnotbeingstable.”(Anderson)“Wemighthavesomethinglikeaglobalcivilwar”withlessthan1b.surviving.(Schellnhuber)
3°C “Challengeregionalandevennationalidentities…nuclearwarispossible…socialconsequencesrangefromincreasedreligiousfervortooutrightchaos.”Acarbonbudgetfor2°C (50% probability)hasa“fattail”riskofexceeding3°C
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full;IrishTimes13March2009;TheAgeofConsequences2007;30+%probabilitybasedonMITscenarios:Parispledgesmet andretainedinthepost-2030period,nofurthercommitments
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RISKFailure of imagination
QueenElizabeth5November2008
“Whydidnooneforeseethetiming,extentandseverityoftheGlobalFinancialCrisis?”(toLSEeconomists)
“Apsychologyofdenialgrippedthefinancialandcorporateworld.…Thefailureofthecollectiveimaginationofmanybrightpeople…tounderstandtheriskstothesystemasawhole.”ReplyfromtheBritishAcademyJuly2009
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RISKFailure of imagination
Source:“ForecastingFailure”,OilChangeInternational&GreenpeaceMarch2017,IPCCScenariosDatabaseRogelj etal,Shell,Exxon,BP
“OilCompanieshavenotyetreconciledthemselvestothemeaningoftheParisAgreement”FinancialTimes,London,27thMay2016
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RISK
Failure of imagination
Excusing“blackelephant”eventsas“blackswan”eventsisafailureofimagination.
“Black elephants” “Blackswans”
• Knowableandimaginable• Unpalatable“knownunknowns”
• Random/highlyimprobable“Unknownunknowns”
• Globalfinancialcrisis• Iraqwarconsequences• Titanic,Chernobyl, Fukushima• Globalwarmingthreatto
humancivilisation
• Asteroidstrike• “New”diseasese.g.AIDS• StartofWW1(Franz
Ferdinandassassination)• Einstein’sdiscoveries
www.thinkunthinkable.org
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SOLUTIONS
The way forward• Recognise climatechangeasanexistential
risktoglobalfinancialandsocietalstability.• Brutallyhonestarticulationofrisks,
opportunitiesandresponsetimeframe.• Newexistentialriskmanagement
techniques outsideconventionalpolitics.• Globalleadershipandintegratedpolicy.• Anemergencyresponse- notalarmismbut
rational“duecareanddiligence”ofanexistentialrisk,honestlyassessed.
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SOLUTIONS
Global response & transformation• Apollomoonshot• Solar/battery/Tesla• MarshallPlan• Chineseeconomy• Digital revolution
After Pearl Harbour, US economy transformed to
world’s largest producer of military goods in a year
Wehavethematerialcapacity.Dowehavetheimaginationandtheleadership?
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“Whoatthehighestlevelsofleadershipincorporatesandpublicservicewilltaketheboldrisks(thatarerequired),notgraduallyorincrementally,butdecisivelyinlinewiththenewscaleandspeedthat‘unthinkables’emerge.”NikGowingandChrisLangdon,ThinkingtheUnthinkable,CIMA,2015
Thebigquestion
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HONESTY ● IMAGINATION ● LEADERSHIP