Post on 05-Dec-2014
description
transcript
the future of publishing
NOBODY CAN PREDICT THE
FUTURE
THE END
NOT REALLY…
BUT PREDICTING THE
FUTURE IS TRICKY…
“With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve
out a big slice of the U.S. market.” - Business Week, 1958
“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of
communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”
- Western Union, internal memo, 1876
“Theoretically, television may be feasible, but I consider it an impossibility – a development which
we should waste little time dreaming about.” - Lee de Forest, inventor of the cathode ray tube, 1926
there are 710,000 results to choose from
…here’s 10
1. people will pay for what they value - but not for things they
are forced to pay for
2. winning publishers will
be flexible and agile,
embracing emerging
platforms
…and methodology of distribution will be more vital
than presentation of destination
3. open, de-centralised publishers will win
…closed, silo’d publishers will lose
4. the definition of 'print' will change
…just as the process of
watching TV, listening to
radio and reading news
is changing has changed
5. citizen journalism will fundamentally affect the publishing industry
6. harnessing the wisdom of the crowds will be proven as a
competitive advantage
7. multiple business models will exist, with no
single ‘solution’ winning
…crossing over industry types to aggregate revenue streams
8. consumption will be
markedly different between
alternative machines and
screens
…people won't be forced into unsuitable experiences
9. differentiation of publisher offering will be from lateral innovation rather than solely
improving content
10. the ease of discovering, sharing and
purchasing will determine success as
much as the content itself
jonathan macdonald
me@jonathanmacdonald.com
jonathanmacdonald.com
linkedin.com/in/jonathanmacdonald
@jmacdonald
thank you