Post on 26-Dec-2015
transcript
The future of refrigerantsThe future of refrigerants
Jim Wolf
Global Policy Associates
May 2015
Current and future environmental policy
Refrigerant comparisons
Future refrigerants
Overview
Objective “To control and eventually eliminate …
OZONE-DEPLETING substances .”
Among 6 major chemicals, CFC and HCFC refrigerants
were classified as an Ozone Depleting substances, and subject to phase outs.
Adopted in Montreal on September 16, 1987
Montreal Protocol
December 1997, Kyoto Japan, Conference of Parties
Kyoto Protocol focus is on Global Warming.
Among 6 major chemicals, HFC refrigerants
were classified as Global Warming, or Greenhouse Gases,
and subject to restrictions.
Kyoto Protocol
Efficiency Drives Environmental Impact
Important Environmental Policy
Montreal Protocol (UNEP)
Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC)
Country Policies and Regulations
Montreal Protocol: HCFC Phase out Dates
Note: Most recent Montreal Protocol meeting took place in Montreal, September 2007
In the EU new HCFC products can no longer be deliveredExport of HCFC products allowed till December 2009Jan.2010: Ban on refilling existing products with virgin HCFC Jan.2015: Ban on refilling existing products with recycled HCFC
Developed Countries, except EU 27
Developing Countries
European Union
2016 Freeze quantities at 2015 levels
No interim step down
2040 Total phase out
Copenhagen - 1992 Montreal - September 2007
1996 Freeze quantities 2004 35% reduction 2010 75% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for
I service only 2030 Total phase out
2013 Freeze quantitiesBaseline set at average of 2009/2010 production levels
2015 10% reduction2020 35% reduction2025 67.5% reduction2030 97.5% reduction 2030 Remaining 2.5% is for
I service only2040 Total phase out
1996 Freeze quantities2004 35% reduction 2010 65% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for
I service only 2030 Total phase out
Note: Most recent Montreal Protocol meeting took place in Montreal, September 2007
In the EU new HCFC products can no longer be deliveredExport of HCFC products allowed till December 2009Jan.2010: Ban on refilling existing products with virgin HCFC Jan.2015: Ban on refilling existing products with recycled HCFC
Developed Countries, except EU 27
Developing Countries
European Union
2016 Freeze quantities at 2015 levels
No interim step down
2040 Total phase out
Copenhagen - 1992 Montreal - September 2007
1996 Freeze quantities 2004 35% reduction 2010 75% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for
I service only 2030 Total phase out
2013 Freeze quantitiesBaseline set at average of 2009/2010 production levels
2015 10% reduction2020 35% reduction2025 67.5% reduction2030 97.5% reduction 2030 Remaining 2.5% is for
I service only2040 Total phase out
1996 Freeze quantities2004 35% reduction 2010 65% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for
I service only 2030 Total phase out
In the EU new HCFC products can no longer be deliveredExport of HCFC products allowed till December 2009Jan.2010: Ban on refilling existing products with virgin HCFC Jan.2015: Ban on refilling existing products with recycled HCFC
Developed Countries, except EU 27
Developing Countries
European Union
2016 Freeze quantities at 2015 levels
No interim step down
2040 Total phase out
Copenhagen - 1992 Montreal - September 2007
1996 Freeze quantities 2004 35% reduction 2010 75% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for
I service only 2030 Total phase out
2013 Freeze quantitiesBaseline set at average of 2009/2010 production levels
2015 10% reduction2020 35% reduction2025 67.5% reduction2030 97.5% reduction 2030 Remaining 2.5% is for
I service only2040 Total phase out
1996 Freeze quantities2004 35% reduction 2010 65% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for
I service only 2030 Total phase out
2016 Freeze quantities at 2015 levels
No interim step down
2040 Total phase out
Copenhagen - 1992 Montreal - September 2007
1996 Freeze quantities 2004 35% reduction 2010 75% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for
I service only 2030 Total phase out
2013 Freeze quantitiesBaseline set at average of 2009/2010 production levels
2015 10% reduction2020 35% reduction2025 67.5% reduction2030 97.5% reduction 2030 Remaining 2.5% is for
I service only2040 Total phase out
1996 Freeze quantities2004 35% reduction 2010 65% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for
I service only 2030 Total phase out
US EPA Accelerated Phase-out Rule (Unchanged)
CFCs
1996 All CFCs 0 % (Production)
HCFCs
1996 Cap at 2.8% (3.1%) of 1989
Consumption of CFCs plus HCFCs
2003 HCFC-141b 0 % (Production)
2010 HCFC-142b (No New Product Use)
HCFC-22 (No New Product Use)
2020 HCFC-22 0 % (Production)
HCFC-142b 0 % (Production)
HCFC-123 (No New Product Use)
HCFC-124 (No New Product Use)
2030 All HCFCs 0 % (Production)
ODP Weighted U.S. HCFC Use and HCFC CapM
illion
Kilog
ram
s C
FC
-11
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
Million
Kilog
ram
s C
FC
-11
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
HCFC Production CapActual HCFC usage
Actual R-123 usage
19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030
65% - 200465% - 2004
25% 25%
10% - 201510% - 2015
0.5% - 20200.5% - 2020
35% - 201035% - 2010Sep07 MP
Change
15
10
5
0
Expected new HCFC demand1
1http://epa.gov/ozone/title6/phaseout/ServicingNeedsRevisedDraftReport_September.2006.pdf
Will There Be Enough R123
2020-2030- 0.5% of 1989 level of “equivalent” R-11Assumptions: Chillers in US with R-123 (50,000 chillers)
Average chiller size: 500 tonsRefrigerant charge: 2 lbs/ton (1.7)Average charge/chiller: 1000 lbs0.5% leakage rate/yr
(50,000 chillers) x (1000 lbs/chiller) x (0.5% leakage rate/year) = 250,000 lbs/yr
0.5% cap from 1989 levels equates to 12,100,000 lbs/year of R-123
Almost 50 times the needed volume can be produced!
HCFC Consumption Caps
*0.5 percent of CAP from 2020 - 2030 only forservice of existing refrigeration and air conditioningequipment
This shows reduction of total HCFC consumption based upon the Kg/ODP cap andshould not be interpreted to represent 100 percent reduction of R-123 Kg/ODP nor ofall HCFCs
Eliminated R-141b on 1/1/2003
Eliminate R-22, new equipment on 1/1/2010
Eliminate R-22 forservice; R-123 in newequipment on 1/1/2020
No addition HCFC elimination 1/1/2015
100 percent HCFCreduction on 1/1/2030
CAP = 1989 CFC consumption x 2.8% plus 100% of 1989 HCFCconsumption (ODP weighted basis)
6
R-123 is used as a feedstock to produce R-125
R-125 is 50% of the blend that makes R-410A ( replacement for R-22)
R-125 is 25% of the blend that makes R-407C
Will R-123 continue to be manufactured ?
Climate change policy Kyoto Protocol created in 1997
European Union CO2 cap & trade program, and HFC regulation enacted in 2005
Activity in 2015
Climate Change negotiations for 2015 agreement
Cap & trade programs/legislation
Montreal Protocol proposals on HFC phase down
EU regulation on HFCs
U.S. HFC regulation
Canadian regulation consultation
U.S. Senate Climate Change Legislation
S. 2191 – Lieberman – Warner bill (Cap and Trade Program) Caps greenhouse gas emissions
Reduces greenhouse gas emissions
Greenhouse gas coverage Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Sulfur hexafluoride
Perfluorocarbons
Hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs (Separate basket)
- Cap set in 2012
-70% reduction by 2037
HFC Allowed CapGWP weighted CO2 Eq
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ion
To
nn
es
CO
2 E
q Low-GWP solutions needed
HFC Cap vs Business as Usual Demand
H.R. – 2454, Waxman – Markey legislation - Establishes baseline of average of 2004, 2005, and 2006
consumption of HFCs
- Phase down of production of HFCs:
. 12.5% reduction in 2013
. 22.5% reduction by 2017
. 33% reduction by 2020
. 54% reduction by 2025
. 70% reduction by 2029
. 85% reduction by 2033
- Passed House (6/26/09) and sent to Senate
Kerry - Lieberman legislation (American Power Act)
- Establishes baseline of average of 2004, 2005, and 2006 consumption of HFCs
- Phase down of production of HFCs:
. 12.5% reduction in 2013
. 22.5% reduction by 2017
. 33% reduction by 2020
. 54% reduction by 2025
. 70% reduction by 2029
. 85% reduction by 2033
- Introduced May 11, 2010
HFC PHASE DOWN PROPOSAL Submitted in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015
Proposal by Canada, U.S., and Mexico to transfer HFC controls to Montreal Protocol
Baseline of average of 2011 – 2013 consumption and production of HFCs + 50% of HCFCs
Phase down of production/consumption of HFCs in Developed Countries:
- 10% by 2019 ; 35% by 2024; 70% by 2030; 85% by 2036
Proposals submitted by Micronesia from 2010 –2015
New proposals submitted by India and EU in 2015
. Amendment proposals to be considered 12/2015
Amendment Proposals to Montreal Protocol
U.S., Canada, & Mexico:
Phasedown: 2019 – 90%, 2024 – 65%, 2030 – 30%; 2036 – 15%
. EU:
Phasedown: 2019 – 85%, 2023 – 60%, 2028 – 30%; 2034 – 15%
. India:
Phasedown: 2018 – 90%, 2023 - 65%, 2029 – 30%; 2035 – 15%
. Micronesia:
Phasedown: 2017 – 85%, 2021 – 65%, 2025 – 45%, 2029 – 25%; 2033 – 10%
HFC PHASEOUT LAWS Switzerland
Air conditioners HFC ban - 2005
Denmark
GENERAL HFC ban - 2006
Cooling plants, heat pumps & air conditioning Plant HFC ban - 2007
Austria
Air conditioning and Mobile refrigeration HFC ban 2008
European Union - HFC Regulations
Stationary air conditioning & refrigeration - (2005)
- Containment and recovery of HFCs
- Training and Certification of technicians
Automobile HFC-134a Ban – (2005)
- No new vehicles with HFCs - GWP greater than 150 in 2011
- No servicing in 2019
EU Regulation on HFCs
EU Regulation on HFCs – Adopted April 2014 Phase down schedule for HFCs from baseline of
the average from 2008 to 2011:
Years Quantity Allowed
2015 100%
2016-17 93
2018-20 63
2021- 23 45
2024-26 31
2027-29 24
2030 21
1st. Petition to remove HFC-134a from SNAP List
NRDC, IGSD, and EIA
Petition filed with EPA Administrator - May 7, 2010
Primary request for removal of HFC-134a for auto
Secondary request for removal of HFC-134a for aerosols, fire suppression, foam blowing agents, refrigeration, and air conditioning sector
Regulation proposed to de-list HFC-134a use in autos (2022) and insulation (2017)
2nd. Petition to remove HFC-134a from SNAP List
IEA petitioned EPA on April 26, 2012
- Remove HFC-134a and blends for any ODS in non-essential uses
- Remove HFC-134a and blends for every end-use where more benign alternatives are available
NRDC petitioned EPA on April 27, 2012
- Remove HFC-134a for household and retail food refrigerators & freezers
3rd. Petition expected to remove HFC-134a from chillers
CAFE Standard for cars and light trucks
National Highway Traffic Safety – DOT
Final rule published May 7, 2010
Requires average 34.1 mpg by 2016
Provides 6 mpg credit for use of non-HFC (134a) air conditioning system
Federal Acquisition Regulation – Proposed Rule – 5/11/15
Affects DOD, GSA, and NASA purchases
Adds restriction on procurement of products containing high GWPs
Requires agencies to procure, when feasible, alternatives to high GWP HFCs (R-134a, R-410a, R-407C) and to non-ODP refrigerants used in air conditioners.
Limits purchase of equipment containing HFCs and/or HCFCs
Environment Canada – Consultation Meetings
Consultation meetings – March 2015
Residential air conditioning: no manufacture or import of equipment with HFCs or HFC blends with GWP above 750.
Commercial and Industrial air conditioning: no manufacture or import of equipment with HFCs or HFC blends with GWP above 750.
Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development
Conference concluded on June 22, 2012
Agreement document – “The Future We Want”
HFC provision:
“We support a gradual phase-down in the consumption and production of HFCs.”
Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC-410A
HFC-407C
HFC-245fa
OD
P (R
-11=
1.0)
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC-410A
HFC-407C
HFC-245fa
GW
P (C
O2=
1.0
)
Efficiency for Chillers (COP)
5.4
5.6
5.8
6
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC-410A
HFC-407C
HFC-245fa
CO
P
Atmospheric Life (Years)
0
20
40
60
80
100
CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC-410A
HFC-407C
HFC-245fa
Yea
rs
CFC-1112
113114
HCFC-22123
141b142b
HFC-32125
134a143a152a
227ea236fa245fa
ODP (relative to R-11) GWP (relative to CO2)
0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
404A407C410A
J. M. Calm and G. C. Hourahan, “Refrigerant Data Summary,” Engineered Systems, 18(11):74-88, November 2001 (based on 1998 WMO and 2001 IPCC assessments). © JMC 2001
Ozone Depletion Potential & Global Warming - Balancing ODP vs GWP
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF TRANE
Natural Refrigerant Considerations
CO2CO2 Low Temp/Refrigeration/AutomotiveLow Temp/Refrigeration/AutomotiveVery low efficiency in HVAC applicationsVery low efficiency in HVAC applications
CO2 has half the efficiency of R-22 and R410ACO2 has half the efficiency of R-22 and R410A
HydrocarbonsHydrocarbons Stationary Air ConditioningStationary Air Conditioning Safety issues on application, service, recoverySafety issues on application, service, recovery
AmmoniaAmmonia Low Temp/Process Chiller ApplicationsLow Temp/Process Chiller ApplicationsLimited opportunities for safe applicationsLimited opportunities for safe applications Safety and environmental issues, service, recoverySafety and environmental issues, service, recovery
Water Stationary Air ConditioningWater Stationary Air Conditioning Low efficiency in normal HVAC applicationsLow efficiency in normal HVAC applications
© 2008 Trane, a business of Ingersoll Rand.
Options For HVAC Refrigerants
Fluorocarbons “Natural” Refrigerants
Class 1High ODP CFC’s
Non- Ozone Depleters(Kyoto Protocol)
Ozone Depleters(Montreal Protocol)
Class 2Low ODP HCFC’s
Higher GWP Lower GWP
R-11R-12R113R-500
R-22R-123
R-134aR-410AR-407C
R-32R-152a
PropaneButaneCO2
AmmoniaWater
-Toxicity Concerns-Efficiency Concerns-Cost Concerns
-ODP Concerns-GWP Concerns- Flammable
GWP
ODP
ODP
ODP
ODP
ODP
ODP
ODP
GWP
GWP
GWP
GWP
GWPGWP
GWP
GWP
How is the industry responding? Refrigerant producers are developing new refrigerants:
Near zero ODP, very low GWP, energy efficient & safe
Commercial availability began in 2015
Equipment manufacturers are analyzing new refrigerants:
Energy efficient, safe & low emissions
Equipment availability by 2015 - 2022
© 2008 Trane, a business of Ingersoll Rand.
High Pressure (R-22/R-410a)
R-32 (GWP=685/716)
• 2L flammable
R-32 blends (GWP= 400/600)
. 2L flammable
Medium Pressure (R-134a)
R-1234yf (GWP<10) - Automobile
• Expensive, significant efficiency loss
• 2L flammable
R-1234ze (GWP<10) - Chillers
• Moderate price
• 2L flammable
Blends (GWP= 500/650) – non flammable
Low Pressure (R-123)
, R-1233 zd(E) (GWP<10) - Chillers
. Moderate price
. Non-flammable
Blends (GWP= 170/200) – non flammable
Projected ReplacementsCONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF TRANE
Refrigerant Safety Classifications ASHRAE 34 & Proposed ISO 817
2L class key to use of low GWP HFOs
• Flammability– Class 1, non-flammable most refrigerants used today, like R-22, R-134a, R123, 410a, 407C– Class 2L, new class slightly flammable refrigerants <10 cm/sec burning velocity, most new HFO’s, R32– Class 2, more flammable, R152– Class 3, explosive, like propane
OLD 1st. Generation 2nd. Generation
CFC-11 HCFC-123 R-1233zd(E)
Blends
CFC-12 HFC-134a R-1234yf (auto)
R- 1234ze (chiller)
Blends (chiller)
HCFC-22 HFC- 410a HFC - 32 or Blends
HFC – 407C HFC – 32 or Blends
The Future of HCFCs and HFCs:
R-22, R-123, R-134a, R-410a, and 407C will be available for servicing existing equipment
Cost of current refrigerants will increase
Carbon tax factor: R-22 (1800) vs. R-410a (2000); R-123 (77) vs. R-134a (1430)
New refrigerants will cost 4 to 10 times more than HFCs
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