Post on 15-Aug-2020
transcript
The Future of Video Competition and Regulation
Joel Waldfogel October 9, 2015
“Digitization and media industries…”
• Usually a tale of woe. Or impending woe.
In video: obstacles to more revenue
piracy
Trade restric-ons
Reality in video is less depressing
Not only no decline. Substantial growth in revenue
1015
2025
reve
nue
(bil)
2000 2005 2010 2015year
US-Origin Box Office Revenue
And this doesn’t count the revenue we can’t easily see: home video, television
But wait. There’s more.
• Costs have fallen, leading to huge growth in production
Movies with IMDb pages as of August 2013
No growth in wide-release movies 0
200
400
600
800
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010year/vintage
MPAA movies 500+ screenstheatrical releases reviewed at Metacritic
Theatrical Release
Sources: MPAA, Box Office Mojo, Metacri-c
But produc-on outstrips theatrical distribu-on capacity
Big growth in limited-release movies
How many 2010 vintage movies distributed by channel • Theaters: 550 • Google Play: 620 • Vudu: 811 • Amazon Instant: 1648
From Instantwatcher.com, October 8, 2015
Growing importance of digital distribution
Curated plaPorm: 4,236 movies in US
Open plaPorm: ≈32,000 movie -tles
16,566
590
A range of models
Exclusivity
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Movies and Exclusivity
duplicated exclusive
Challenges going forward
• Will China open up? • Interesting effects on product mix & US investment
• Will a distribution platform emerge as a bottleneck? • Data availability for analysis and policy making is a real issue
• box office is observable, but increasingly important sources are not • what we can see – production - is great news • should pleadings require disclosure?
We are living in interesting times