Post on 31-Mar-2015
transcript
The Linkages between Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development
Wolfgang Lutz
UNDP/UNFPA/UNOPS Joint Executive Board Special Event, 7 Sept 2011, NY
2
World Population from the year 1000 to 2100
Source of historical data: UN 2001
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
YEAR
WO
RL
D P
OP
UL
AT
ION
(IN
MIL
LIO
NS
)
3
Mortality under age 5 by mothers’ education (Source: DHS)
6Source: IIASA
low edu high edu
poor 50.3 30.4
rich 35.6 18.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
IMRIndia
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-2000
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 46,429,319
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in thousands
Ag
e (y
ea
rs)
Republic of Korea-1960
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 24,766,151
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in thousands
Ag
e (y
ea
rs)
Republic of Korea-1965
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 28,653,294
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-1970
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 31,439,846
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-1975
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 34,721,379
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-1980
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 37,459,355
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-1985
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 40,504,730
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-1990
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 42,982,851
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-1995
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 44,651,208
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-2000
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 46,429,319
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-2010
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 48,492,348
FEMALESMALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Population in Thousands
Ag
e G
rou
p
Republic of Korea-2020
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Total Population: 49,486,000
FEMALESMALES
0
10000
20000
30000
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50000
60000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Po
pu
lati
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in T
ho
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Years
Kenya - Proportion Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Global Education Trend (GET) Scenario
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
World Population ProgramIIASA 2011
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Kenya - Proportion Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Constant Enrollment Number (CEN) Scenario
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary
World Population ProgramIIASA 2011
India
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400000
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1200000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Popu
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Years
India - Population Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Global Education Trend (GET) Scenario
No Education Primary Secondary TertiaryWorld Population ProogramIIASA 2009
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400000
600000
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1000000
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1400000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Popu
latio
n in
Tho
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Years
India - Population Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Constant Enrollment Number (CEN) Scenario
No Education Primary Secondary TertiaryWorld Population ProogramIIASA 2009
Female Education is Key to reducing World Population Growth (Lutz and KC, Science 2011)
Different education scenarios assuming identical education-specific fertility rates
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1
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102000
2010
2020
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Po
pu
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CEN
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GET
0246810
2000
2010
2020
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GET
pop014 No_Educ Primary Secondary Tertiary
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600000
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1200000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Po
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Years
China - Population Aged 15-64 by Level of Educational Attainment in 1970-2050 - Global Education Trend (GET) Scenario
No Education Primary Secondary TertiaryWorld Population ProogramIIASA 2009
A policy focus on female education and basic health (including reproductive health) is a multiple-win strategy for the simultaneous reduction of
(a) mortality and disability (b) unintended pregnancies and desired family size and hence population growth, (c) poverty(d) corruption and bad institutions and enhance democracy(e) environmental impact at given level of income (f) vulnerability to environmental change
2001 IIASA / IUSSP / UNUGlobal Science Panel on Population & Evironment
Patronage: Maurice F. Strong and Nafis Sadik
Consensus Statement:
Population should be on the Johannesburg Agenda
“If we do not put the human population at the core of the sustainable development agenda, our efforts to improve human well-being and preserve the quality of the environment will fail. The Johannesburg Summit must heed the first principle of the 1992 Rio Declaration—that “human beings are at the centre of concern for sustainable development”—by taking full account of how population and society interact with the natural environment.“
In Cairo 1994 .. “The key recognition was that focusing on people—their rights, capabilities, and opportunities—would have multiple benefits for individuals, for society, and for their sustainable relationship with the environment.
Hence in Johannesburg, consideration of sustainable development policies must include population growth and distribution, mobility, differential vulnerability, and the empowerment of the people, especially women.“