The Long View

Set America Free 101Set America Free 101

[One systems approach][One systems approach]

Institute for the Analysis of Global Security

http://www.iags.org

We all agree that it’s time to Set America Free

Fuel diversification

Real world solutions

Existing infrastructure

Environmentally sensible choices

Domestic resource utilization

Optimal energy use

Maintenance of the American way of life

The ABCs of Setting America FreeThe ABCs of Setting America Free

Energy Security through fuel choiceEnergy Security through fuel choice

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)

Think of them as electric vehicles with an auxiliary fuel tank, or “souped-up hybrids.”

All electric range for a portion of the daily driving cycle.Night time charging means significantly lower fuel cost.When the charge is used up, the car automatically.

keeps running on the fuel in the fuel tank.Performance equal to that of current vehicles.

PHEV + FFV fueled with 80% alcohol and 20% gasoline = 400-500 miles per gallon of gasoline!

If by 2025, all cars on the road are hybrids and half are plug-in hybrid vehicles, U.S. oil imports would drop by 8 million barrels per day (mbd). Today, the U.S imports 10 mbd and it is projected to import almost 20 mbd by 2025. If all of these cars were also FFV, U.S. oil imports would drop by as much as 12 mbd.

• [ASPO-USA caveat: is 2025 at risk?]

Bottom line: Bottom line: SystemSystem of Systems of Systems

PEAK OIL ERA CLOSING PEAK OIL ERA CLOSING DOWNDOWN

WORLD SOON TO ENTER WORLD SOON TO ENTER FRESH CHAPTER FRESH CHAPTER

OF OF “TRANSITION ONE” “TRANSITION ONE”

Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam BakhtiariBakhtiari

<www.samsambakhtiari.co<www.samsambakhtiari.co

m>m>

Five R’s Proposal for Five R’s Proposal for “Transition One”“Transition One”

• R1. RE-PROGRAM

• R2. REDUCE

• R3. REUSE

• R4. RECYCLE

• R5. REWARD

• <www.samsambakhtiari.com>

Comments from Sadad al Husseini Comments from Sadad al Husseini to Denver World Oil Conference to Denver World Oil Conference

• Oil capacity today is not production limited but rather processing limited (tight refining)

• Gradual production increases over the next ten years to be limited by slow refining capacity expansions

Dr. al Husseini, con’tDr. al Husseini, con’t• Given the current outlook in terms of

global exploration and development, the rate of investments in the oil value chain, energy prices, and the prevailing legal and political investment climate, I believe oil production will level off at around the 90 - 95 mmbd by 2015.

Dr. Sadad al Husseini, con’tDr. Sadad al Husseini, con’t

• A rapid global refinery expansion program that eventually matches an increasing oil demand rate of 1.5 - 2.0% per year cannot be achieved before 2015 at the earliest and is highly improbable in any case.

Dr. Sadad al Husseini, con’tDr. Sadad al Husseini, con’t

• Therefore my answer is: under the current circumstances and outlook, oil is likely to peak at a 95 mmbd plateau by 2015 and can then be sustained well beyond 2020 at increasing real oil prices.