Post on 18-Sep-2020
transcript
The MarketPulseMay 2020
Volume 9, Issue 5
May 2020
Data as of March 2020 (unless otherwise stated)
News Media Contact
Lucy De Oliveira newsmedia@corelogic.com
416-873-2727 (office)
2
The MarketPulse
Table of ContentsFull Impact from Employment Losses not yet Evident in Single-Family Rents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Interest Rates Fuel Refinance-Driven Market in 2019 . . . . . . .4
Pending Sales Reveal Annual Price Growth Slowed by 0 .3 Percentage Points in April . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
U .S . Case-Shiller Index Found Annual Price Growth Picked up Pace in February . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
In The News . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Charts & Graphs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12
10 Largest CBSA – Loan Performance Insights Report February 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Overview of Loan Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including Distressed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Home Price Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
March 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
March 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Housing Statistics March 2020
HPI® YOY Chg 4 .5%
HPI YOY Chg XD 4 .2%
NegEq Share (Q4 2019) 3 .5%
3
� Rents for lower-priced homes increased faster than those of higher-priced homes in March compared with a year earlier.
� Phoenix had the highest increase in rent in March from a year earlier.
1 Metro areas used in this report are Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Metropolitan Divisions where available . The SFRI is computed for 75 metros .
U.S. single-family rents increased 3% year over year in March 2020, the same rate of increase as March 2019, according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI). The index measures rent changes among single-family rental homes, including condominiums, using a repeat-rent analysis to measure the same rental properties over time. Single-family rents were on the rise in early 2020 prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, having increased by an average of 3.1% year over year for the first three months of the year. Impacts from state and local shutdowns on the rental market will be apparent in the coming months.
Using the rent index to analyze specific price tiers reveals important differences in rent growth. Figure 1 shows that the index’s overall growth in March 2020 was propped up by low-end rentals, defined as properties with rents 75% or less of the median rent of the metro area11. Rents on low-tier rental homes increased 3.9% year over year and rents for high-tier homes, defined as properties with rents more than 125% of the metro-area median rent, increased 2.7% year over year. Rents for low-tier homes
Full Impact from Employment Losses not yet Evident in Single-Family RentsU .S . Single-Family Rents Up 3% Year Over Year in March
Molly BoeselPrincipal, Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
Molly Boesel holds the title principal, economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analyzing and forecasting housing and mortgage market trends.
Continued on page 11
Figure 1. National Single-Family Rent IndexYear-Over-Year Percent Change by Price Tier
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
SFRI Low Tier High Tier
1
1 Boesel fig 1 Subhead copy goes here
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
01JA
N20
05
01JA
N20
06
01JA
N20
07
Source: CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index, March 2020
Figure 2. Single-Family Rent Index Year-Over-Year Percent Change in 20 Markets
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Phoe
nix,
AZ
Seat
tle, W
A
Tucs
on, A
Z
Las
Vega
s, N
V
Bost
on, M
A
Aust
in, T
X
Char
lott
e, N
C
Los
Ange
les,
CA
San
Die
go, C
A
Was
hing
ton,
DC
Orla
ndo,
FL
Dal
las,
TX
Hou
ston
, TX
Mia
mi,
FL
Chic
ago,
IL
Atla
nta,
GA
St. L
ouis
, MO
Det
roit,
MI
Phila
delp
hia,
PA
Hon
olul
u, H
I
1-Mar-19 1-Mar-20
2
1 Boesel fig 2 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index, March 2020
4
CoreLogic TrueStandings servicing data shows the average interest rate for a home loan slid from 4.96% in December 2018 to 3.75% in December 2019.1 Effects of falling interest rates include more homeowners refinancing an existing home loan, purchasing a new home or taking out additional debt with a second lien.
In the first quarter of 2019, mortgage rates were at an eight-year high when they began to fall.2 The continued downward trend led to a quarterly year-over-year drop in first-lien mortgage originations, from 1.43 million loans to 1.28 million.3 However, by the middle of the second quarter, homeowners were borrowing at 4.24%, marking the lowest rate since February 2018, resulting in an uptick in originations. Mortgage rates continued to decline throughout the remainder of 2019, and
refinance volume, which is particularly sensitive to interest rate levels, was impacted most.
CoreLogic public record data shows the total yearly count of refinance, purchase and home equity loans increased by 18% in 2019 to roughly 9.51 million, up from 8.06 million in 2018.4 Refinance loan volume grew by 59%, while purchase originations remained relatively flat with only 4% growth.
Refinance Insights According to public records data, first-lien refinance volume grew from roughly 2.36 million loans in 2018 to 3.74 million loans in 2019. CoreLogic TrueStandings data
Continued on page 5
Interest Rates Fuel Refinance-Driven Market in 2019Refinance loan originations jumped 59% in 2019
Arthur JobeSenior Professional, Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
Arthur Jobe holds the title of senior professional economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist. He is responsible for analyzing mortgage and real estate trends. He began his tenure at CoreLogic with the Advisory Services team, working directly with clients and utilizing various CoreLogic data assets to design and deliver customized solutions. He also supported the CoreLogic Lien & Equity Analytics Radar (CLEAR) product as a developer.
Figure 1. Home Loan Origination Counts5
(in thousands)
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1
2 jobe fig 1 Subhead copy goes here
1.81
3.90
2.36
2018 Home Loans
Home Equity Purchase Refi
1.72
4.04
3.74
2019 Home Loans
Home Equity Purchase Refi
Source: CoreLogic
5
shows the growth in rate-and-term refinances far exceeded cash outs starting in the second quarter of 2019. The cash-out share of refinances peaked during the end of 2018 at 68% but fell to just 39% by the end of 2019. The decline in cash-out share was due to a surge in rate-and-term refinance originations, which was the result of decreasing interest rates. Over time, we see the cash-out refinance share of total refinances generally follows changes in home-loan interest rates [Figure 2].
Purchase MortgagesCoreLogic public record data shows a 4% year-over-year increase in first lien purchase mortgages, from 3.9 million loans in 2018 to 4.04 million in 2019. Compared to refinances, this growth was modest because mortgage rates are often not the sole reason behind home purchase decisions. However, reduced mortgage rates can have a positive impact on origination activity by improving affordability. The CoreLogic Typical Mortgage Payment Analysis demonstrates how changes in interest rates can have a greater impact on affordability than that of changes in home prices. The Typical Mortgage Payment blog for December 20196 shows how, despite a 4% year-over-year increase in the median sale price, the
typical mortgage payment fell by 6.8% because of a 20% decline in mortgage rates.
Second Lien OriginationsPublic record data shows home equity loan originations decreased year over year by 5% in 2019 to 1.72 million. Although still down from 2018, favorable interest rates attracted more homeowners, and originations increased by 27% from the first to the second quarter of 2019. However, slower home appreciation and high demand for refinances limited the year-over-year growth for second liens.
As more homeowners refinanced to take advantage of decreasing interest rates, the share of home equity and other junior standalone mortgages declined throughout 2019 after the first quarter (see Figure 3).
Looking forwardWhen refinanced mortgages drive origination growth, we expect it to slow as rates level out. For instance, refinance volume abruptly declined 15% month over month in November 2019 and another 2% in December
Continued on page 6
Interest Rates continued from page 4
Figure 2. Rate-or Term Share of Refis Increase with Decreasing RatesShare of Refi Orig Interest Rate
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
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5.0
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20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Dec
-12
Dec
-13
Dec
-14
Dec
-15
Dec
-16
Dec
-17
Dec
-18
Dec
-19
Cash-Out Rate and Term Int Rate (Wgt Avg)
2
2 jobe fig 2 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic
6
despite steady historic low home loan rates7. However, a decrease in home loan rates in January 20208 sparked a jump in refinance loan applications, most of which will appear as refinance originations in February. The Federal Reserve also slashed interest rates in March 2020, and we will see the effects of that decision over the next few months.
1 Average interest rate calculated from total purchase and refinance loan originations found in CoreLogic TrueStandings servicing data, weighted by dollar amount .
2 December 2018 had a weighted average interest rate of 4.96%, the highest since May of 2010, which was 4.97%.
3 Mortgage prigination counts sourced from CoreLogic public records data .4 Senior purchase and refinance liens and home equity loans only.
Excludes piggybacks and other junior liens.5 Mortgage origination counts sourced from CoreLogic public records
data. Purchase and refinance mortgages exclude piggyback loans.6 https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2020/3/typical-mortgage-
payment-u.s.-homebuyers-committed-to-in-2019-dropped-from-prior-year.aspx
7 Refinance volume sourced for public decord data. Home-loan rates found in CoreLogic TrueStandings servicing data, weighted by dollar amount .
8 Average FreddieMac Conventional Conforming 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage decreased from 3.72% in December 2019 to 3.62% in January 2020 .
Figure 3. Home Equity Loan Originations Decreased While Refinance Surged in 2019Originations (Ths) Interest Rate
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2.80
3.05
3.30
3.55
3.80
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4.30
4.55
4.80
5.05
5.30
0
50
100
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250
300
350
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Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
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Apr-
19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-19
Refinance Home Equity Interest Rate
3
2 jobe fig 3 Subhead copy goes here
Source: CoreLogic
Interest Rates continued from page 5
7
Home price indexes (HPI), such as the CoreLogic HPI™ and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, are vital tools for understanding valuation and risk trends in real-estate markets. The main ingredients in the CoreLogic indexes are prices on settled transactions, as subsequently recorded by local jurisdictions in publicly available records. Since it takes time to record transactions, collect data, and produce indexes, there is always a lag between the availability of the data and the calculation of the HPI.
1 Stephen Malpezzi, Hedonic Pricing Models: A selective and Applied Review, Housing Economics and Public Policy Chapter 5, 2008.2 The 20 urban areas are Atlanta, Cambridge (MA), Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis,
Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Nassau County-Suffolk County (NY), Tampa, and Washington DC. The composite index is the weighted average of indexes in these cities where the weight is the entire housing stock in units .
Thus, the effect of the COVID-19 disruptions on home sales may not appear in HPIs for another month or two.
On the other hand, the home buyer and seller agree to a price in their sales contract, which is generally signed about 30 to 45 days before a sale is settled. This information can be a leading indicator of what to expect over the next couple of months.
CoreLogic has developed a Pending Price Index using MLS data. The index is built on the price recorded on the contract date rather than the price on the closing date, and hence by design is a leading indicator of HPIs that utilize final recorded home price to generate the index. The Pending Price Index is built using a hedonic approach, which differs from repeat sales methods used for most other HPIs.1
To understand the time series relationship between the contracted price and the settlement price data, we estimated correlation coefficients for a 20-city composite Pending Price Index to its corresponding 20-city composite CoreLogic HPI. The 20-city composite index is the aggregated index for 20 major metropolitan areas.2
Figure 1 shows the correlation between the month-over-month percent change of the 20-city composite CoreLogic HPI and the month-over-month percent change of
Continued on page 8
Pending Sales Reveal Annual Price Growth Slowed by 0 .3 Percentage Points in AprilCOVID-19 effects on housing market include slowing of home-price growth
Bin HePrincipal, Economist
Bin He is a principal economist with the CoreLogic Decision Analytics & Research Team (DART). Bin leads research and development of the CoreLogic Home Price Index and the CoreLogic Real Estate Analytics Suite. Bin is also responsible for the modeling that powers the CoreLogic RiskModel. Before Bin joined CoreLogic, he was director of Credit Analytics for Radian Guaranty, where he was responsible for the development and implementation of mortgage prepayment and default models.
Dr. Frank NothaftExecutive, Chief Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
Frank Nothaft holds the title executive, chief economist for CoreLogic. He leads the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analysis, commentary and forecasting trends in global real estate, insurance and mortgage markets.
Figure 1 Correlation of Monthly Percent Change of CoreLogic HPI with Pending HPI and its LagsHighest correlation is with Pending HPI lagged 1 and 2 months
Correlation Coefficient
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1
3 he fig 1 Subhead copy goes here
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Conc
urre
nt
1-m
onth
2-m
onth
3-m
onth
4-m
onth
5-m
onth
6-m
onth
Pending HPI: Number of Months Lagged
Highest Correlation
Source: CoreLogic, correlation over January 2006 to February 2020 period .
8
different lags of the 20-city composite pending index, estimated over the January 2006 to February 2020 period.
As Figure 1 shows, the CoreLogic HPI has the highest correlation with the one-month and two-month lag of the Pending Price Index, which suggests the Pending HPI leads the CoreLogic HPI by one to two months. Hence, by leveraging March MLS data, it is possible for us to take a peek at home price trends in April. The CoreLogic HPI report released on May 5 provides indexes through March and has no April values.
Figure 2 shows the actual and projected3 year-over-year changes for the 20-city composite HPI. The Pending Price Index projects changes in the actual CoreLogic HPI very well. Home price appreciation started to slow down
3 The projection is one-period ahead projection. For instance, the April 2020 HPI is projected by using the March 2020 and February 2020 pending indexes, and the March 2020 HPI is projected by using the February 2020 and January 2020 pending index.
during April 2020, which reflects the impact of COVID-19 on the home sales as the April price would partially be driven by sales that were pending in March. Annual price growth had been accelerating in the 20-city CoreLogic HPI composite for the five months prior to April 2020. The Pending Price Index projects the annual price growth to slow by 0.3 percentage points between March and April.
The Pending Price Index uses additional information from MLS data about what is happening now in the housing market that will be reflected in the CoreLogic HPI in the future. By leveraging the information in the Pending Price Index, housing market participants can stay one step ahead and be alerted to what may happen in this rapidly changing market.
Pending Sales continued from page 7
Figure 2. 20-City Composite HPI Annual Change: Actual vs ProjectionPending HPI projects annual price growth slows 0.3% in April
12-Month Percent Change
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-18.0%
-13.5%
-9.0%
-4.5%
0.0%
4.5%
9.0%
13.5%
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20
Month-Year
2
3 he fig 2 Subhead copy goes here
Low Price Low-to-Middle Price
Middle-to-Moderate Price
High Price
Actual (CoreLogic HPI)
Projection
Source: CoreLogic
9
Home prices continued rising at an accelerated pace in February, with the largest year-over-year increase since January 2019, and month-to-month increase at its fastest pace since last June. Annual increases have been strengthening for six consecutive months.
Strong home price growth remained a function of low mortgage rates, income growth and shortage of homes for sale that persisted in the housing market prior to the economic shutdown due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Since home sales captured in this and next month’s release account for transactions closed prior to the implementation of shelter-in-place policies, next month is also likely to show continued strength in home price growth.
Among the 20 urban areas included in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, Phoenix continued to take the lead for the ninth consecutive month in February, with a 7.5% year-over-year increase in home prices. Seattle followed in second place at 6%, with the pace of price growth accelerating compared to last February. Conversely, New York (1.5%) and Chicago (0.7%) reported the smallest 12-month gain of the 20 metros. Las Vegas’ price growth (3.5%) slowed sharply from last February, when it topped almost 10%.
Looking forward, COVID-19 is likely to have varying impacts in housing markets across the country. In metros where
U .S . Case-Shiller Index Found Annual Price Growth Picked up Pace in FebruaryIn February 2020, before COVID-19 pandemic, annual home price growth was 4 .2%
Selma HeppExecutive, Research & Insights and Deputy Chief Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
Selma Hepp holds the title executive, research & insights and deputy chief economist for CoreLogic. She is responsible for analyzing, interpreting and forecasting economic trends in real estate, mortgage and insurance.
Figure 1. Home Prices Increased at Fastest Pace in Over a YearCoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index, Year-Over-Year Change
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Febr
uary
201
5
April
201
5
June
201
5
Augu
st 2
015
Oct
ober
201
5
Dec
embe
r 20
15
Febr
uary
201
6
April
201
6
June
201
6
Augu
st 2
016
Oct
ober
201
6
Dec
embe
r 20
16
Febr
uary
201
7
April
201
7
June
201
7
Augu
st 2
017
Oct
ober
201
7
Dec
embe
r 20
17
Febr
uary
201
8
April
201
8
June
201
8
Augu
st 2
018
Oct
ober
201
8
Dec
embe
r 20
18
Febr
uary
201
9
April
201
9
June
201
9
Augu
st 2
019
Oct
ober
201
9
Dec
embe
r 20
19
Febr
uary
202
0
1
4 hepp fig 1 Subhead copy goes here
Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes™, not seasonally adjusted (April 28, 2020 release)
Continued on page 10
10
Figure 3. Home Price Growth Slowed Sharply in Las VegasFebruary 2020 20-City Year-Over-Year Home Price Growth
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Phoe
nix
Seat
tle
Tam
pa
Char
lott
e
Min
neap
olis
Port
land
Bost
on
Atla
nta
San
Die
go
Clev
elan
d US
Los
Ange
les
Det
roit
Was
hing
ton
Las
Vega
s
San
Fran
cisc
o
Den
ver
Mia
mi
Dal
las
New
Yor
k
Chic
ago
Feb-20 Feb-19
3
4 hepp fig 3 Subhead copy goes here
Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, not seasonally adjusted (April 28, 2020 release)
Continued on page 11
Figure 2. Home Price Growth Slowed Sharply in Las VegasFebruary 2020 20-City Year-Over-Year Home Price Growth
©2019 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Febr
uary
201
5
April
201
5
June
201
5
Augu
st 2
015
Oct
ober
201
5
Dec
embe
r 20
15
Febr
uary
201
6
April
201
6
June
201
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Augu
st 2
016
Oct
ober
201
6
Dec
embe
r 20
16
Febr
uary
201
7
April
201
7
June
201
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Augu
st 2
017
Oct
ober
201
7
Dec
embe
r 20
17
Febr
uary
201
8
April
201
8
June
201
8
Augu
st 2
018
Oct
ober
201
8
Dec
embe
r 20
18
Febr
uary
201
9
April
201
9
June
201
9
Augu
st 2
019
Oct
ober
201
9
Dec
embe
r 20
19
Febr
uary
202
0
10-City 20-City
2
4 hepp fig 2 Subhead copy goes here
Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, not seasonally adjusted (April 28, 2020 release)
U.S. Case-Shiller Index continued from page 9
11
In The News
Bankrate – April 25 mortgage and real estate trends for the second quarter of 2020“’While the majority of workers who are being hit hard by the abrupt shutdown of economic activities are generally hourly workers who would not necessarily be in the market to buy a home, the impact has been spreading to salaried workers as well,’ says Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic.”
Barron’s – April 25Home Buyers Are Looking for Price Cuts. Realtors Say Sellers Aren’t Budging.“While data released over the coming months will provide a clearer picture of coronavirus’s impact on home prices, economists say buyers shouldn’t expect widespread dramatic price drops similar to those seen in the Great Recession. ‘Buyers have been, a lot of times, referring back to 2008,’ says Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. ‘It’s part of the expectations because of the prior cycle.’”
Realtor.com – April 14Mortgage Forbearance Is Not All It’s Cracked Up To Be—Here’s the Ugly Truth“In January, just 0.4% of mortgages were in some stage of foreclosure, according to the most recent data released by real estate data company CoreLogic. Meanwhile, only 3.5% of mortgages were delinquent, which means they were at least 30 days late.”
Mortgage News Daily – April 21February Rent Increases were Largest in Four Years“Single-family homes now provide half of all rental units in the U.S. CoreLogic’s Single Family Rental Index (SFRI) recorded an annual gain of 3.3 percent in rents for those homes, the largest annual increase in nearly four years.”
U.S. Case-Shiller Index continued from page 10
Full Impact continued from page 3
have been outpacing than those of high-tier homes since April 2014, and while the diff erence in these growth rates has narrowed over time, it widened again in March 2020.
Rent growth varies signifi cantly across metro areas. Figure 2 shows the year-over-year change in the rental index for 20 large metropolitan areas in March 2020. Phoenix had the highest year-over-year rent growth this March as it has since late 2018, with an increase of 6.8%, followed by Seattle (+6.2%) and Tucson (+5.3%). While none of the 20 metro areas showed decreases in rent, both Philadelphia and Honolulu recorded sub-1% growth in March. Philadelphia also had the largest deceleration in rent growth in March, showing annual rent growth of 3 percentage points lower than in March 2019. Seattle had the largest acceleration in rent growth in March, with rents increasing 5 percentage points faster than in March 2019. Employment gains turned negative in four of the 20 metros tracked in the report in March, a trend that will soon reach the remaining metros, likely impacting single-family rental prices.
job losses are higher than average, housing markets may see a larger impact from the economic shutdown, particularly if home price growth was already slowing coming into the pandemic. For example, states with the largest number of unemployment claims and slowing home-price trends include some markets in Nevada, Florida and Illinois.
Homes sold in the lower one-third of the price distribution continued to see relatively stronger appreciation than higher-priced homes, due to low for-sale inventories and competing demand from both traditional buyers and investors. Increased activity among millennial buyers is also helping drive stronger prices. On a 12-month basis, strongest growth in the lowest price tier was in Seattle (up 10%), with Atlanta, Boston and Tampa, Florida, all up 9%.
With continued shelter-in-place polices and uncertainty around post-COVID-19 economic outcomes, spring home-buying season is likely to disappoint, which may have an impact on home prices in the next several months. However, many promising signs remain, including active millennials who are benefi ting from some of the lowest mortgage rates in history.
12
Charts & Graphs
“If the streak of delinquency declines at the beginning of the year was a bright spot in predicting loan performance in 2020, by April, the highest unemployment rate in decades cast doubt over that optimism. Unemployment insurance claims jumped 1,900% in the last two weeks of March alone. …”Frank Martell President and CEO of CoreLogic
10 Largest CBSA – Loan Performance Insights Report February 2020
CBSA
30 Days or More
Delinquency Rate February
2020 (%)
Serious Delinquency
Rate February 2020 (%)
Foreclosure Rate February
2020 (%)
30 Days or More
Delinquency Rate February
2019 (%)
Serious Delinquency
Rate February 2019 (%)
Foreclosure Rate February
2019 (%)
Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH 2.8 0.9 0.3 3.2 1.0 0.3
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI 4.0 1.5 0.6 4.4 1.7 0.6
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO 1.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 0.4 0.1
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX 4.7 1.4 0.4 5.1 1.7 0.3
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV 3.1 1.2 0.5 3.6 1.5 0.6
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA 2.2 0.6 0.2 2.6 0.7 0.2
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL 5.1 1.8 0.8 5.6 2.3 0.9
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA 4.7 2.2 1.1 5.3 2.6 1.2
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA 1.2 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.3 0.1
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV 3.1 1.0 0.3 3.7 1.2 0.3
Source: CoreLogic February 2020
Overview of Loan PerformanceNational Delinquency News
©2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
3.6
1.8
0.6
0.3
0.8 0.9
0.4
4.0
2.0
0.6
0.3
1.0 1.1
0.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Perc
enta
ge R
ate
2.78x5.93; no legend, no horizontal axis labels; 7ptloan performance feb 2020: national overview
90-119 DaysPast Due
120+ DaysPast Due
60-89 DaysPast Due
30 Days or MorePast Due
30-59 DaysPast Due
90+ Days(not in fcl)
InForeclosure
February 2019February 2020
Source: CoreLogic February 2020
13
State
Month- Over-Month
Percent Change Year-Over-Year
Forecasted Month- Over-Month
Percent Change
Forecasted Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Alabama 0.2% 4.1% 0.6% 1.3%
Alaska 0.9% 1.5% 0.8% 3.2%
Arizona 1.1% 8.2% 1.0% 0.0%
Arkansas 0.5% 3.2% 0.2% 1.3%
California 0.9% 3.9% 1.2% 5.7%
Colorado 0.9% 4.3% 0.6% −0.3%
Connecticut 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 2.5%
Delaware 0.7% 3.8% 0.7% −0.8%
District of Columbia 0.6% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Florida 0.4% 4.2% 0.9% −1.9%
Georgia 0.7% 4.8% 0.7% −0.6%
Hawaii 0.9% 3.9% 0.8% 3.8%
Idaho 0.8% 11.7% 0.4% 0.5%
Illinois 1.0% 1.8% 0.5% 1.4%
Indiana 1.3% 5.8% 0.4% 0.4%
Iowa −0.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.4%
Kansas 1.9% 5.2% 0.5% −0.3%
Kentucky 0.4% 3.8% 0.5% −0.2%
Louisiana 1.1% 2.4% 0.2% −2.1%
Maine 0.9% 4.6% 0.9% 2.8%
Maryland 0.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1%
Massachusetts 1.1% 4.0% 0.8% 0.7%
Michigan 0.0% 3.8% 0.5% 0.8%
Minnesota 0.8% 4.3% 0.3% −1.7%
Mississippi 0.3% 3.7% 0.4% −0.9%
Missouri 0.7% 6.1% 0.3% −0.2%
Montana 1.2% 5.1% 0.6% 3.1%
Nebraska 0.4% 4.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Nevada 0.8% 4.8% 0.9% −0.3%
New Hampshire 0.7% 4.6% 0.6% 1.2%
New Jersey 1.3% 4.5% 0.8% 1.1%
New Mexico 0.9% 7.6% 0.5% 0.6%
New York 1.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.9%
North Carolina 0.6% 5.0% 0.6% −1.3%
North Dakota 1.4% 2.1% 0.3% −0.3%
Ohio 1.0% 5.5% 0.4% −0.3%
Oklahoma 0.7% 3.4% 0.2% −0.4%
Oregon 0.6% 4.6% 0.7% 2.4%
Pennsylvania 1.4% 4.9% 0.8% −0.3%
Rhode Island 1.7% 6.5% 0.9% −0.6%
South Carolina 0.6% 4.2% 0.7% 0.3%
South Dakota 0.4% 7.1% 0.2% −1.8%
Tennessee 0.3% 5.6% 0.6% −0.3%
Texas 0.1% 3.0% 0.0% −2.0%
Utah 0.9% 5.7% 0.5% 0.3%
Vermont −0.4% 3.9% 0.3% 1.7%
Virginia 0.4% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Washington 1.4% 6.4% 0.9% 1.7%
West Virginia 1.4% 7.3% 0.5% −0.8%
Wisconsin 0.0% 4.5% 0.2% 0.3%
Wyoming 0.9% 7.5% 0.6% 1.3%
Source: CoreLogic March 2020
Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including DistressedMarch 2020
14
Charts & Graphs (continued)
“Home prices for March reflect transactions negotiated primarily in the previous two months, prior to the implementation of the shelter-in-place policies. Rapid decline of purchase activity starting in the middle of March can be seen in other CoreLogic data and is consistent with our HPI forecast of slowing price growth in April. The first quarter GDP results showed that the country entered a recession in March.
Unemployment claims have reached record highs and this economic environment will further impact the housing market into the foreseeable future.”Dr . Frank Nothaft Chief Economist for CoreLogic
Home Price IndexPercentage Change Year Over Year
©2020 CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Including Distressed
3.04x5.67; 7pt typehpi as of mar 2020
Source: CoreLogic March 2020
15
CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition OverviewMarch 2020
Source: CoreLogic CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through March 2020 . CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting April 2020 .
Legend
■ Normal
■ Overvalued
■ Undervalued
Forecast: CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition OverviewMarch 2025
Source: CoreLogic CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through March 2020 . CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting April 2020 .
Legend
■ Normal
■ Overvalued
■ Undervalued
16
Variable Definition
Total Sales The total number of all home-sale transactions during the month.
Total Sales 12-Month sum The total number of all home-sale transactions for the last 12 months.
Total Sales YoY Change 0.3%
12-Month sum Percentage increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales
New Home Sales The total number of newly constructed residentail housing units sold during the month.
New Home Sales 0.9%
Median Price The median price for newly constructed residential housing units during the month.
Existing Home Sales The number of previously constucted homes that were sold to an unaffiliated third party. DOES NOT INCLUDE REO AND SHORT SALES.
REO Sales Number of bank owned properties that were sold to an unaffiliated third party.
REO Sales Share The number of REO Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
REO Price Discount The average price of a REO divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
REO Pct The count of loans in REO as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the reporting period.
Short Sales The number of short sales. A short sale is a sale of real estate in which the sale proceeds fall short of the balance owed on the property's loan.
Short Sales Share The number of Short Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
Short Sale Price Discount The average price of a Short Sale divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
Short Sale Pct The count of loans in Short Sale as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the month.
Distressed Sales Share The percentage of the total sales that were a distressed sale (REO or short sale).
Distressed Sales Share 0.4%
(sales 12-Month sum) The sum of the REO Sales 12-month sum and the Short Sales 12-month sum divided by the total sales 12-month sum.
HPI MoM Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a year ago.
HPI MoM Excluding Distressed Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Excluding Distressed Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a year ago.
HPI Percent Change 0.2%
from Peak Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series from the respective peak value in the index.
90 Days + DQ Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that are 90 or more days delinquent as of the reporting period. This percentage includes loans that are in foreclosure or REO.
Stock of 90+ Delinquencies YoY Chg Percent change year-over-year of the number of 90+ day delinquencies in the current month.
Foreclosure Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that is currently in foreclosure as of the reporting period.
Percent Change Stock of Foreclosures from Peak
Percent increase or decrease in the number of foreclosures from the respective peak number of foreclosures.
Pre-foreclosure Filings The number of mortgages where the lender has initiated foreclosure proceedings and it has been made known through public notice (NOD).
Completed Foreclosures A completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in either the purchase of the home at auction or the property is taken by the lender as part of their Real Estate Owned (REO) inventory.
Negative Equity Share The percentage of mortgages in negative equity. The denominator for the negative equity percent is based on the number of mortgages from the public record.
Negative Equity The number of mortgages in negative equity. Negative equity is calculated as the difference between the current value of the property and the origination value of the mortgage. If the mortgage debt is greater than the current value, the property is considered to be in a negative equity position. We estimate current UPB value, not origination value.
Months' Supply of Distressed Homes 0.4%
(total sales 12-Month avg) The months it would take to sell off all homes currently in distress of 90 days delinquency or greater based on the current sales pace.
Price/Income Ratio CoreLogic HPI™ divided by Nominal Personal Income provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and indexed to January 1976.
Conforming Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are within the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
Jumbo Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are larger than the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
17
Variable Definition
Total Sales The total number of all home-sale transactions during the month.
Total Sales 12-Month sum The total number of all home-sale transactions for the last 12 months.
Total Sales YoY Change 0.3%
12-Month sum Percentage increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales
New Home Sales The total number of newly constructed residentail housing units sold during the month.
New Home Sales 0.9%
Median Price The median price for newly constructed residential housing units during the month.
Existing Home Sales The number of previously constucted homes that were sold to an unaffiliated third party. DOES NOT INCLUDE REO AND SHORT SALES.
REO Sales Number of bank owned properties that were sold to an unaffiliated third party.
REO Sales Share The number of REO Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
REO Price Discount The average price of a REO divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
REO Pct The count of loans in REO as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the reporting period.
Short Sales The number of short sales. A short sale is a sale of real estate in which the sale proceeds fall short of the balance owed on the property's loan.
Short Sales Share The number of Short Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
Short Sale Price Discount The average price of a Short Sale divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
Short Sale Pct The count of loans in Short Sale as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the month.
Distressed Sales Share The percentage of the total sales that were a distressed sale (REO or short sale).
Distressed Sales Share 0.4%
(sales 12-Month sum) The sum of the REO Sales 12-month sum and the Short Sales 12-month sum divided by the total sales 12-month sum.
HPI MoM Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a year ago.
HPI MoM Excluding Distressed Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Excluding Distressed Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a year ago.
HPI Percent Change 0.2%
from Peak Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series from the respective peak value in the index.
90 Days + DQ Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that are 90 or more days delinquent as of the reporting period. This percentage includes loans that are in foreclosure or REO.
Stock of 90+ Delinquencies YoY Chg Percent change year-over-year of the number of 90+ day delinquencies in the current month.
Foreclosure Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that is currently in foreclosure as of the reporting period.
Percent Change Stock of Foreclosures from Peak
Percent increase or decrease in the number of foreclosures from the respective peak number of foreclosures.
Pre-foreclosure Filings The number of mortgages where the lender has initiated foreclosure proceedings and it has been made known through public notice (NOD).
Completed Foreclosures A completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in either the purchase of the home at auction or the property is taken by the lender as part of their Real Estate Owned (REO) inventory.
Negative Equity Share The percentage of mortgages in negative equity. The denominator for the negative equity percent is based on the number of mortgages from the public record.
Negative Equity The number of mortgages in negative equity. Negative equity is calculated as the difference between the current value of the property and the origination value of the mortgage. If the mortgage debt is greater than the current value, the property is considered to be in a negative equity position. We estimate current UPB value, not origination value.
Months' Supply of Distressed Homes 0.4%
(total sales 12-Month avg) The months it would take to sell off all homes currently in distress of 90 days delinquency or greater based on the current sales pace.
Price/Income Ratio CoreLogic HPI™ divided by Nominal Personal Income provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and indexed to January 1976.
Conforming Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are within the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
Jumbo Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are larger than the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
Source: CoreLogicThe data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast . This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic . Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company . For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data . If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website . For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact CoreLogic at newsmedia@corelogic .com . Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner . This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources .
For more information please call 866.774.3282The MarketPulse is a newsletter published by CoreLogic, Inc . ("CoreLogic") . This information is made available for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide specific commercial, financial or investment advice. CoreLogic disclaims all express or implied representations, warranties and guaranties, including implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, or non-infringement. Neither CoreLogic nor its licensors make any representations, warranties or guaranties as to the quality, reliability, suitability, truth, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information contained in this newsletter . CoreLogic shall not be held responsible for any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or losses resulting directly or indirectly from your reliance on the information contained in this newsletter .
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