The Math that Matters in the Realtime Web SXSW 2012 | #MathMatters

Gilad Lotan | @gilgul

Illustra(on:  Ma.  Taylor  

Flickr:  mangpages  

Attention is the Bottleneck

Information Flows through People

Alex  Dragulescu  

Flickr:  sharynmorrow  

$ = f(Channel, Demographics, Time, …)

$ = f(Topic, Network, Timing, Influence, Trust, “engagement” …)

Daily Routines

Data Reflects Us

Language / Time Zone 49ers:  36,    Saints:  32  

Game  starts  

Game  ends!  

49ers  

Typical Sports Event

GOP debates

#gayrights,  #lgbt,  #jesus,    #flipflop,  #jobs,  #economy  

#pales(ne,  #OWS,  #immigra(on,  #abor(on  

#republican,  #dems,    #economics,  #amnesty  

•  Know your data •  Identify deviations from the norm (important

events) •  Identify types of events (shape of the curve) •  Understand context (language)

•  Co-occurrence (relationship between terms)

Invisible Audiences

Flickr:  leN-­‐hand  

Seeing Millions of Conversations

Al-Jazeera Fox News

Difference between Audiences

What Audiences are Clicking on?

Shape of an Audience

Pi.sburgh  

Oklahoma  City  

Noblesville,  IN  

Engelwood,  Dayton,  OH  

Birmingham,  AL  

1.4m   4.6m   3.9m   1.7m   620k   879k  

•  28.7%  of  those  who  follow  The  Economist  also  follow  the  New  York  Times.  This  is  the  highest  intersec(on  in  terms  of  percentage.  

•  19%  of  those  who  follow  Al-­‐Jazeera  English  also  follow  the  New  York  Times.  

•  Of  the  people  who  follow  either  CNN  or  New  York  Times,  9.5%  follow  both.  

•  663  users  follow  all  six  news  accounts.  

Clicks per Tweet

Clicks per Tweet (norm) RT per Tweet (norm)

•  Know your audience – What they talk about (audience TTs) – Who else they follow –  Their shape (clusters)

•  More followers != More engagement

•  Driving traffic vs. Building a Network (reach)

Information Flows

Influencer: An individual who disproportionately affects the spread of information

“Influence” as an Exposed Metric is Problematic

•  Simple quantifiable measure •  People aren’t always rational – may trust

someone despite past transgressions •  Dynamic – changes constantly •  Exogenous – may come from outside the

observed network •  Based on Context

Gaining Your Network’s Trust

Urban Outfitters vs. NYC Crafters

Going Viral is Usually Unexpected

“I’m  not  a  Twi.er  celebrity  by  any  means.  I  barely  had  over  1000  followers  when  the  day  began...  What  I  do  have  is  a  tribe.  A  #ght  knit  group  of  independent  ar#sts  and  cra4ers  that  follow  me.  My  cause  resounded  with  them.  They  spread  it,  and  their  friends  spread  it,  and  a  few  big  influencers  on  Twi.er  spread  it,  and  then  it  was  gone”  

Network Type + Resonance > Network Size

Not necessarily about being first

•  Trust •  Context Setting •  Having the right network in place (“tribe”) •  Bridges

Instead of “Influence”, think about:

-  Know your audience What type of people follow you, how they’re connected Alignment between content and audience

-  No to vanity metrics

more followers doesn’t necessarily mean more engagement

-  Bridges vs. Influencers

just because we’re connected doesn’t mean information will flow

-  Clicks vs. Retweets what are you optimizing for?

-  Building up the Right Network

trust, resonance

-  Not about being first

Thank You

Gilad Lotan | @gilgul gilad@socialflow.com