Crawford School of Economics and Government, CAP

Wednesday 10 November 2010

2.00pm – 3.30pm

The Midterm Referendum on Obama

Professor Morris Fiorina and Professor James Fallows

The 2010 Elections

Morris Fiorina

November 10, 2010

The Political Scientist’s Mantra:

A year (or two) in politics is an eternity

Karl Rove, 2003

The real prize is creating a Republican majority that would be as solid as, say, the Democratic coalition that Franklin Roosevelt created--a majority that would last for a generation …

(Nicholas Lemann interview, New Yorker, May 12, 2003.

James Carville, 2009

40 More Years: How the Democrats will

Rule the Next Generation

(New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009)

Little Change in Voter Ideology

Source: GSS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Liberal Moderate Conservative

Per

cen

t (%

)

2010 Democratic Losses

House 63-65 seats

Senate 6 seats

Governors 7 states

State Legislatures 17 (?) chambers

State Legislators 680+

Peace and Prosperity Voting in US Presidential

Elections: 1952-2008

1980

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1952

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

40

45

50

55

60

65

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Incu

mb

en

t Sh

are

of

Two

-Par

ty V

ote

(%

)

Real Income Growth and Militiary Fatalities Combined

2008

Democratic Casualty List

49 Dem incumbents, 14 Dem open seats

Class of 2006: 11/21 defeated

Class of 2008: 21/24 defeated

48 Dems in McCain districts: 36 lost

40 DIncs in McCain districts: 28 lost

McCain District Inc (28) Casualties

Voted no on HC and C&T: 8 / 15

Voted yes on one: 13 / 16

Voted yes on both: 7 / 7

Electoral Over-Interpretation

• Jimmy Carter 1976

• Bill Clinton 1992

• Newt Gingrich 1994

• George Bush 2004

• Barack Obama 2008

“… generations from now, we will be able to

look back and tell our children … that this

was the moment when we began to provide

care for the sick and good jobs for the

jobless; this was the moment when the rise

of the oceans began to slow and our planet

began to heal.”

Barack Obama, June 4, 2008

Approval Rating of George W. Bush

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb-0

1

May

-01

Aug-0

1

Nov

-01

Feb-0

2

May

-02

Aug-0

2

Nov

-02

Feb-0

3

May

-03

Aug-0

3

Nov

-03

Feb-0

4

May

-04

Aug-0

4

Nov

-04

Feb-0

5

May

-05

Aug-0

5

Nov

-05

Feb-0

6

May

-06

Aug-0

6

Nov

-06

Feb-0

7

May

-07

Aug-0

7

Nov

-07

Feb-0

8

May

-08

Aug-0

8

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Ap

pro

vin

g o

f G

eo

rge

W B

us

h's

Jo

b A

s P

res

ide

nt

Source: The Gallup Organization

State of the Country

Perceptions of Barack Obama’s Policies

Do you think the policies that Barack Obama has pursued as President

have been mostly liberal, mostly moderate or mostly conservative?

Source: The Gallup Organization

Note: November 2008 data based on question asking “Just your best guess, do you think the policies that Barack Obama will pursue as President will be mostly liberal, mostly moderate, or mostly conservative?”

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09

Perc

en

t

% Mostly Liberal % Mostly Moderate % Mostly Conservative

Health Care

Obama Job Approval

.

Confidence in Congress

Opinion of Speaker of House, Nancy

Pelosi

Does the US Representative in Your

Congressional District Deserve Re-Election?

Obama Approval Among Independents

The Tea Party ?

Some Tea Party Facts

How Big?

They are Republicans

Focus on Deficits / Debt / Size of Gov’t

Support Entitlements

Sarah Palin not Qualified to be President

Tea Party Candidates

House (129)

14 in Republican districts

33 in Toss-up districts

Senate (9)

4 in Republican states

1 in Democratic state

4 in toss-up states

“Anti-Incumbent Wave Rolls On”

(not)

House Primaries

Incumbents Running 393

Incumbents Winning 389

Senate Primaries

Incumbents Running 25

Incumbents Winning 22

Tea Party Impact in Senate

None or Minimal

Alaska, Florida, Pennsylvania, Utah

Positive

Wisconsin

Negative

Colorado, Delaware, Nevada

The 2010 Delaware Senate Primary

Registered voters 682,000

Registered Republicans 182,800 (29% of registered)

Republican Primary Vote 57,580 (31% of Republicans)

O’Donnell Vote 30,560 (< 5% of registered)

If Republicans Win Control of the

House …

Should _______ compromise or stick with principles?

Obama 69 %

Republicans 78

Democrats 76

CBS/NYT October 21-26

If Republicans Win Control of the

House …

Will _______ try to work with _______ in order to

get things done?

Obama will 72 %

Republicans will 46

Thank you

Era of Indecision:

Presidential Election Results

Year Democrat Republican

1876 50.97% 47.95%*

1880 48.25% 48.27%*

1884 48.50%* 48.25%

1888 48.62% 47.82%*

1892 46.05%* 42.96%

Note: * Electoral College Winner

Era of Indecision:

Control of Congress

Year House Senate

1874 D R

1876 D R

1878 D D

1880 R Tie (R)

1882 D R

1884 D R

1886 D R

1888 R R

1890 D R

1892 D D

1984 R R

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Services/Spending

Insurance

Aid to Minorities

Jobs/SOL

Military Spending

ANES Policy Views: 1984

Pe

rce

nt

Ideological Position

Little Change on Policy Issues*

Source: 2008 ANES

* “Haven’t thought much about it” responses recoded as moderates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Services/Spending

Insurance

Aid to Minorities

Jobs/SOL

Military Spending

ANES Policy Views: 2008

Pe

rce

nt

Ideological Position

Small Swings to the GOP

2006 to 2010 Midterm Elections

• Liberals (-6)

• African-Americans (-2)

• Mothers (+1)

• "Other" religion (+2)

• Age 18-29 (+5)

• No high school (+7)

• Union households (+8)

• Big city voters (+8)

Big Swings to the GOP 2006 to 2010 Midterm Elections

• Independents (+36)

• Rural voters (+25)

• Northeast voters (+20)

• Age 65 and older (+21)

• Catholics (+21)

• Whites (+19)

• High school grads (+19)

• Income over $200,000 (+13)

• Income under $50,000 (+13)

Most Important Problem Facing Country

Source: The Gallup Organization

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

Economy Jobs/Unemployment Health Care

% S

tati

ng

Issu

e is

"M

ost

Imp

ort

ant"

Congressional Job Approval

Generic Ballot

Opinion of Speaker of House, Nancy

Pelosi

Final Thought

2008: Should Republicans really want to win

the Presidency ?

2010: Should Republicans really want to win

the Congress ?

1994 as Template for 2010?

Normal Mid-Term Loss √

Issues √

Redistricting X

Scandal X

Obama Ratings in Perspective:

Presidential Midterm Approval Ratings

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Tr

um

an

Tru

man

Eise

nh

ow

er

Eise

nh

ow

er

Ken

ned

y

Joh

nso

n

Nix

on

Ford

Car

ter

Rea

gan

Rea

gan

GH

W B

ush

Clin

ton

Clin

ton

GW

Bu

sh

GW

Bu

sh

Ob

ama

1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

% A

pp

rova

l

Source: The Gallup Organization

Hibbs’ Bread and Peace Model: Real Income Growth and the

Two-Party Vote Share of the Incumbent Party’s Presidential

Candidate, 1952 -1996

Optimism About Government

Source: ABC News Question Text: As far as the future is concerned, thinking about our system of government and how well it works – is this something you feel generally optimistic about, generally pessimistic about, or uncertain about?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

% O

pti

mis

tic

Youth Support for House of Representative

Candidates, 1992 to 2010

55

48

54

48

49 49

55 58

60

56

45

49

44

48

48 46 44

38

33

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Democrats Republicans

Per

cen

t %

Source: NEP Polls Youth refers to 18-29 year old voters.