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This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Bryan Taylor
Research Director
Enterprise Mobility
The Mobile Scenario: Understanding Mobile Trends & Directions Through 2017
Mobility Matures
1
Mobile strategy
Enterprise standards
Solution focus
2015
2010
CIO
CDO CMO
Multichannel strategy Enterprise &
ecosystem focus
Integration with other products and services
Innovation focus - new products, services,
relationships
Consumerisation, BYO
Notebooks, smartphones,
tablets
Notebooks, smartphones, tablets, hybrids, consumer electronics, smart devices,
peripherals.....
CIO
CMO
Strategy: 2013 Global CIO Top 10 Technologies
CIO Technologies
Ranking 2012 2011 2010 2009
Ranking of technologies CIOs selected as one of their top five priorities in 2013.
* Not an option in that year
2013
Analytics and business intelligence 1 1 5 5 1
Mobile technologies 2 2 3 6 12
Cloud computing (SaaS, IaaS, PaaS) 3 3 1 2 16
Collaboration technologies (workflow) 4 4 8 11 5
Legacy modernization 5 6 7 15 4
IT management 6 7 4 10 *
CRM 7 8 18 * *
Virtualization 8 5 2 1 3
Security 9 10 12 9 8
ERP applications 10 9 13 14 2
2
Key Issues
1. What will be the key mobile and wireless technology, and market trends through 2017?
2. How will corporations choose and use mobile technology, services and tools to support customers and employees?
The Changing Device Mix
4
Installed Base in NA and WE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2013 2016
Smartphones
PCs
Tablets
38%
24%
38%
1B 1.4B 1.7B
Small form factor with apps and browser
55% mobile: notebook and ultra-mobile
Mid to Large screen touch device
Tablets Bust Out
5
Tablet Installed Base – North America and Western Europe
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2013 2016
iOS
Android
Windows
63%
27%
9%
Mill
ions Insta
lled
Over 80% of iPads in the workplace are BYO
$100 Consumer Tablets in 2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2013 2016
Symbian
Other
BlackBerry
Windows
iOS/MacOS
Android
Smartphone Installed Base
6
Pre
dic
ted insta
lled b
ase in N
A a
nd W
E (
M)
Smartphones will be 52% total global handset shipments
Smartphones will be 78% total global handset shipments
Android
Windows
iOS
US: 2/3 of 18-24 year olds and 2/3 of households earning $75K have a smartphone in 2012
$50 Smartphones in 2014
New categories: Tablets and Ultramobiles
7
0 m
100 m
200 m
300 m
400 m
500 m
600 m
700 m
2013 2014 2015 2016
Low end tablets
Predicted mobile PC and tablet shipments 2013 to 2016, worldwide Ultramobiles
Notebooks
Premium tablets
Mobile Technology Trends 2013 and 2014
8
• More form factors: 27" tablets, 4K tablets, "phablets"
• Windows 8 and touch ultrabooks blur tablets & PCs
• "Smartphone" and "feature phone" distinctions blur
• 8 Core asymmetric processors
• "Haswell" gives Intel a more competitive chipset
• Curved screens & flexible OLED screens emerge slowly
• OS evolution continues at a high rate on all platforms
• Android will have the widest price and performance
range, $40 - $50 smartphones in 2014
• User interfaces get more sophisticated
• NFC grows, but m-payment struggles
Apple
Mobile HTML5 A Work In Progress
Immature and fragmented collection of different standards HTML, CSS, JavaScript...
Multiple standards bodies W3C, ECMA, IETF, "Living standard" with W3C/WHATWG separation....
Multiple inconsistent implementations e.g., offline storage
Security challenges New vulnerabilities, risks
not yet well understood
Hardware variations 10:1 performance range
in mobile devices
HTML5
Strong vendor support Apple, Google, Microsoft, Opera....
Valuable new features Geolocation, graphics,
better user experience, hybrid apps, media,
offline operation.
Commercial opportunities Avoids app store "taxes"
Incomplete solution e.g., no alerts
Vendor attitudes "native is best" versus aggressive HTML evolution
Key Wireless Network Technologies
10Gbps
1Gbps
100Mbps
10Mbps
1Mbps
100Kbps
Adjacent Room Campus National International
BGAN
LTE-A
LTE
802.11ac
802.11ad
802.11n
Bluetooth 2.1
ZigBee
DASH-7
NFC
802.15.6 (UWB)
Bluetooth LE
HSPA+
This diagram shows approximate theoretical peak speeds that will not be achieved under real-world conditions
Future
Current
Log
Scale
802.15.6 (HBC)
802.15.6
WAUN (Japan) 802.11ah
Mobile Battlegrounds: Payment, Media, Social, LBS, Context, Advertising ...
Footfall (traffic) for advertising
Generate revenue
Drive new technology
Context and behavioral info
Innovate apps/services
Community stickiness
..........
Apple
Mobile Apps Will Become More Sophisticated and More Complex
Increasing sophistication
Context, gamification, indoor location, augmented reality....
Improvements in quality
Customers will become less tolerant of bugs and poor support
Cloud & partners
For context, payment, marketing, navigation, location, social....
Better user experiences
Cosmetic design, psychology and motivation, usability
Multichannel integration
Mobile becomes part of a broad multichannel strategy
External integration
Peripherals, ensemble interactions, links to consumer electronics
Better user experiences
Multichannel integration
External integration
Increasing sophistication
Improving quality
Cloud partners
A Mobile App for Every Thing
13
• Increasing integration with a
wide range of smart,
networked consumer
electronics via mobile apps
• Synergy between mobility
and the internet of things
• Crowd funding and
development driving
product innovation, e,g.
Kickstarter
• Key innovation areas
include automotive,
consumer electronics, toys,
healthcare
• Key architecture: Smart
device + mobile + cloud
• The handset becomes the
hub of the personal / body
area network
A Radical Shift is Occuring
14
Source: Hunting and Harvesting in a Digital World: The 2013 CIO Agenda, Jan 1 2013
n=2053 CIOs, worldwide
8%
46%
63%
Today 20202016
Many Are Shifting to Mobile and Laptop Only
“When will your organization move
to mobile and laptop only?”
Desktops + Mobile
Mobile Only
Mobility Impacts Every Aspect of Your Business
15
Run
Grow
Transform
Consumer facing Employee facing
E.g. new mobile technologies, devices and interactions, mobile + internet of things, M2M, ...
E.g. multichannel integration, mobile commerce, mobile marketing, ...
Hygiene apps, e.g. m-banking, SMS notifications, ...
E.g. role specific solutions such as SFA, FFA, logistics,
mobile social networking
E.g. wireless office, cellular connectivity, mobile email,
cloud document sharing
E.g. process re-engineering using innovative apps, new ownership models such as
BYOD, BYOA
Tactics are the New Strategy
Demand What must we deliver?
Supply Tools, techniques,
sourcing, skills
Risk Management Suppliers, apps, ...
Governance
• Application architectures and tools
• Multiplatform applications
• Multiple mobile strategies, B2C, B2E
• New AD tools portfolio
• New methods and processes
• Skills
• New sourcing relationships
• Agility is essential
• New sourcing partners
• New app principles, e.g. context
• Management and security
• Build innovation into the strategy
• New approaches to security
Mo
bile
Imp
act
on
IT S
trate
gy
2 Year Tactical Plan
3 Year Strategic Plan
BYOD
A(nother) Radical Shift is Occuring
18
Source: Hunting and Harvesting in a Digital World: The 2013 CIO Agenda, Jan 1 2013
* Gartner analyst estimates
“When will your organization
cease to provide personal devices?”
6%
38%
Today 20202016
And Many Organizations Will Not Provide Devices
45%
15%NO BYOD*
ALL BYOD
MIXED
40%
n=2053 worldwide
BYO: The Trend Is Clear
• Over 60% of employees report using a personal
device for work
• US and APAC lead, EU lags
19
• 2/3 of consumers report that work influences what they buy
for personal devices
• PC BYOD Lags Smartphones and Tablets (<8% of companies), but will accelerate in 2014+
One Common Situation Where BYO Saves Money: Blackberry Replacement
• Messaging and calendar only
• Partial reimbursement / stipend
• Domestic US users
• Limited international travel
Before After
$1M
$1.08M over 2 Years
$300K savings in 2 years
$90/mo/user
$50/mo/user service fee
(may decrease w/time)
$15/mo/user software and related costs
(likely to increase w/ time)
$780K
Your situation may be different!
$65/mo/user
But There Is More Here Than Cost Savings.
• Increasing employee satisfaction via opt-in programs. Attracting and retaining staff.
• Expanding the number of mobile users – and the mobile app opportunity
• Offloading the management of non-strategic devices from IT
• Adopting technology at the speed of consumer markets
21
The Gotchas
• Hosted Virtual Desktop costs
• Licensing costs
• International usage fees
• The surprise $10,000 bill
• Taxes in some countries
• E-discovery issues
• Employee privacy implications
• After-hours labor implications
• Difficulty of FORCING users into the program
• How do you drive future upgrades?
22
Key Components of a BYO Program
Scope and eligibility
Access to corporate apps/resources
Security and privacy
Ownership, re-imbursement
Tools and technologies
Support
Policy and enforcement
Platform selection
BYO isn't guaranteed to save money
Stipends need an exception mechanism
You can't address BYOD without addressing BYOA
You can't force users to upgrade when it suits you
Endpoint independence
Software licensing
Mobile Security: Many Threats, Many Solutions, Many Compromises
24
MDM - Manage the device
Containerisation - Manage the app
App wrapping
Managed zones
Virtualisation
Thin - Trust nothing
Trusted devices - few options
..........
Selected Technology Approaches What does the user want?
• Mix trusted and untrusted apps on
the same device
• Minimise disruption to personal apps,
behaviour, and use cases
• Support a wide range of devices
• Don't compromise usability of device
or applications
• Corporate management won't destroy
personal information
Plan for many forms of "Mobile Work"
25
Formal
Informal
Corporate-supplied and supported
device & process for specific job role e.g. Sales force automation iPad
Formal BYO program for senior execs
and knowledge workers to replace
company-supplied devices e.g. BYO laptops and tablets
Employee-owned device as laptop
adjunct but with corporate sanction for
selected tasks, e.g. email, documents e.g. knowledge worker's personal iPad
"Under the radar" employee-owned
device without corporate support or
awareness e.g. employee's personal tablet or
smartphone
Segment employees into multiple categories and mobile
management regimes
Supporting BYO & Consumer Devices
• Design apps for supportability
• Adopt supportable architectures
• Choose devices / platforms that are easy to support
• Provide community resources
• Educate users
• Suggest or fund external resources
• Address legal, HR, insurance issues
• Define a contingency plan
• Address issues such as backup in policy agreements
• Manage liability, e.g. with timeboxing
Make apps and devices more supportable
Enable self-support
Manage risk
Policy Goals: Common Sense Enforcement • Who qualifies?
• What devices are allowed?
• Who buys/owns the device?
• What service expenses will be covered, and how?
• What is supported, at what level?
• What does the employee have to do?
• Enterprise security, data usage and privacy restrictions
• Employee privacy issues
• Labor implications of after-hours support
• Liability issues (E-discovery)
• Limitations on reimbursement
• Penalties for noncompliance
• Data and phone number transition at termination
Support policies and
liability issues must be
reviewed by the corporate
legal department, the
executive board, HR and
business unit managers.
Use Gartner’s BYOD Mobile Device Policy Template (G00233049)
Devices: Set Appropriate Policies
All Devices
• Minimum device level: iPhone 3GS+, iOS 5.0x, Android 3.x
• Company-administered MDM
• Pass code length, retry, timeout policy
• No jailbreak/no rooting policy
• Certificates for any and all access: email, apps, networks
• Application encryption and cleanup for sensitive data
Personal Devices
• Limit device enrollments at company discretion
• Filter sensitive data at company discretion
• Accept company lock/wipe decisions
• Require end-user acceptable-use policy agreement
Update every 6 months
Key Mobile Delivery/Security Technologies
• MobileIron
• AirWatch
• Fiberlink
• Citrix XenMobile
• Boxtone
• SAP
• IBM
• Antenna Software
• SAP
• IBM
Application
Delivery
Application
Development
Device
Management
and Security
Application
Management
and Security Mobile Device Management*
Native Development
Web Development
Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms*
Mobile Consumer Application Platforms* • Kony
Sample Vendors
*Gartner Magic Quadrants are available
Enterprise File Synchronization and
Sharing* Collaboration
• Citrix XenApp/XenDesktop
• VMWare Horizon View Virtual Desktop
Accellion, Box, Citrix Sharefile
Containerization, DLP, App Encryption Data
Protections
Good, Mocana, Citrix Mobile
Solutions, Excitor, Symantec,
AirWatch, AppSense
• Sencha
• Appcelerator
• Verivo
• Adobe
• Good Technology
• Symantec
Conclusions: Tactics to Gain Control • Segment users, define multiple management regimes
One size of management won't fit everyone
• Regularly publish minimum specifications
What does an employee need this year?
• Consumerisation must be a win-win bargain
Everyone gives something, everyone gets something
• Work with the users - define SLAs, policies, expectations
Some employees may be happy with the status quo
• Explore new technological solutions
E.g. HVD, sandboxed email, DRM, multiplatform MDM-Lite.......
• Revisit application architectures & tools
Thinner = lower cost and more device neutral
• Stay tactical & flexible
New devices, apps, opportunities and challenges will emerge
regularly. Continually monitor technology and user behaviour.
• Look on this as an opportunity, not a problem
Rewards include increased innovation, happier employees, maybe
cost savings & you'll be a more attractive employer
Building a Mobile Capability Demands Mixed Sourcing and New Partners
Strategy & Design
Implementation & Architecture
Deployment & Operations
UX design and psychology
Artistic design
Process re-engineering
Design & programming
B2E mobile strategy
Mobile testing including tools and services
Consumer services (e.g., mapping, context, marketing, m-payment ...)
Hosting-applications, Web adaptation, cloud services
Application stores
Analytics and metrics
Telecom services
Messaging & notification
Specialist implementation services (e.g., UX review)
Typically internal
Typically external
Typically mixed internal/external API management
B2C mobile strategy
Marketing & advertising partners
What Will a Mobile Strategy Cost?
$10K to $100K $100K to $1 million $1 million upward
B2E/B2C simple native app, single platform, skunkworks project, $10K
B2E SaaS tools, $50 per user / month, unlimited applications and platforms
High end B2E tool e.g., mobilizing multiple SAP modules, 3,500 users, $3M to $5M p.a.
High end media-rich B2C application, five platforms, $300K set up, $25K per month hosting for 100K users
High-end B2C mobile Web adapter, $200K set up, $7K per month hosting
B2C, sophisticated applications, multiple platforms, high-end tool plus outsourced services, substantial ongoing enhancement >$1 million p.a.
B2E, 300 users, enterprise tool, $430K p.a. license fees plus application development cost
Five Steps to Building a Road Map
Assemble Mobile Application Strategy Team
Assemble Mobile Application Strategy Team
Your Action Plan
Monday Morning:
- Identify new ways to provide, manage, and secure mobile devices and applications to deal with the challenges of BYOD and BYOA.
- Define comprehensive mobile strategies covering B2C, B2B and B2E domains, and refresh them regularly.
Next 90 Days:
- Select a small but sufficient portfolio of mobile development tools to address current platform and application needs.
- Define a broad sourcing strategy to exploit new services and partners who can create the best mobile applications
Next 12 Months:
- Find innovation opportunities exploiting both employee and customer facing mobility.
Recommended Gartner Research: Strategy
CIOs' Next-Generation Mobile Strategy Checklist (G00233616)
Fit Mobility Into a Multichannel and Multiplatform Strategy (G00239468)
Essential Steps to Take When Implementing a Mobile Application Strategy (G00237527)
Toolkit: Writing a Mobile Strategy Document (G00206288)
Recommended Gartner Research: Technology
Magic Quadrant for Mobile Application Development Platforms (G00230529)
Technology Overview of Mobile Application Containers for Enterprise Data Management and Security (G00247134)
MarketScope for Enterprise File Synchronization and Sharing (G00226376)
Magic Quadrant for Mobile Device Management Software (G00230508)
This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other authorized recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2012 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
David Willis
The Mobile Scenario: Understanding Mobile Trends Through 2017