Post on 23-Jun-2020
transcript
Roger S. PulwartyChief, Climate and Societal Interactions Division
NOAA
The National Integrated Drought Information System
Climate‐A continuumand an adaptation deficit
30DAYS
1SEASON
Heat WavesStorm Track VariationsMadden-Julian Oscillation
El Niño-Southern Oscillation
3YEARS
10YEARS
Decadal VariabilitySolar VariabilityDeep Ocean CirculationGreenhouse Gases
30YEARS
100YEARS
SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-CENTURY
How do we “usually” adapt?
Infrastructure/assets
Technological process optimization
Institutional and behavioral changes or reinforcement
Crisis, learning and redesign
Adaptation: Crisis, learning and redesign
What has led to “action”?
1. Focusing events-extremes, legal decisions etc.
2. Leadership at different levels and the public are engaged
3. Support for a collaborative framework between research and management-integrated, scenarios, scenarios/gaming, communication, embedding information into practice, evaluation
4. Existing social basis or even pressure for collaboration
Three tasks under the NIDIS Act Public Law 109-430, 2006
(I) Provide an effective drought early warning system: (a) collect and integrate key indicators of drought severity and impacts; and (b) produce timely information that reflect local, regional, and State differences;
(II) Coordinate and integrate as practicable, Federal research in support of a drought early warning system;
(III) Build upon existing forecasting and assessment programs and partnerships
ApplicationsResearch
PredictionMonitoring
ImpactMitigation
ProactivePlanning
ImprovedAdaptation
Integrating Tools e.g.Drought Monitor/Portal
Coordinate existing federal, state, and local drought‐related data and decision support activities (e.g., within watersheds and states)
Identifying and transferring indicators, decision support tools and innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness
NIDIS REGIONAL INFORMATION MANAGEMENT MODEL
Public AwarenessAnd Education
Engaging PreparednessCommunities
IntegratedMonitoring and
Forecasting
InterdisciplinaryNeeds Assessment,
Research,Applications
U.S.Drought Portal
NIDIS Implementation
Team
NRCS, USGSRiver Forecast Center
Climate Prediction CenterCLIVAR, USDA
Regional Integrated Sciences and AssessmentsRegional Climate Centers
NCAR, USDA
NCDCNDMC-NOAA,USGS, USDA,
USBoR
State ClimatologistsWGA, NWS CSD
USDA
NDMCState Offices
US BoR, USACE
Public AwarenessAnd Education
Engaging PreparednessCommunities
IntegratedMonitoring and
Forecasting
InterdisciplinaryResearch andApplications
U.S.Drought Portal
Regional Drought Early
Warning Information Systems
NIDIS Implementation
Team: Over 50 Federal, state, tribal and private sector
representatives
Key Clearinghouse Functions:Credible, Accessible, Timely Information onCredible, Accessible, Timely Information on
Where are drought conditions now?Does this event look like other events?
How is the drought affecting me?Will the drought continue?Where can I go for help?
Recovery
(Basic Indicators)
Colorado River Water Supply & Use
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Water Use10 ‐Year Averages from 1923 to 2006
10 ‐Year Running Average Basin Water Supply
10 ‐Year Running Average Basin Water Use
Water Use
Water Supply
Short-termScheduling
Long-termPlanning
Mid-termOperations
Real-timeControl
Spatial Resolution/Time Horizon Operational Activity Decisions
Basin-wide over decades
Basin-wide over 1-2 years
Sub-basin over 4-6 weeks
Single project over 1-7 days
Operating Criteria and Guidelines
Annual Operating Plan
Water and PowerSchedules
Unit CommitmentEconomic Dispatch
Automatic Generationand Control
NIDIS Products and Services in the Colorado Basin to date
•New watershed-based drought indicators and triggers used in the Upper Basin•Improved linkages between climate and streamflowmodeling during drought•Spatial analysis of water demand during drought •Low flow impacts database for 164 NWS forecast points•Reconciling projections of climate change on water •UCRB Community Colorado Basin-specific Drought Portal•Weekly Drought and Water Outlook webinars/early warning discussions with resource managers in the UCRB•Engaging underserved communities
Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) Developed in 1981 for Colorado
(adopted by other Western States)
Integrates Snowpack, Reservoir Storage, Streamflow, & Precipitation at High Elevation
Standardized Units
Plotted by River Basin
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/wsf/swsi.html
Water accounting components
Surface Storage
Recharge
ET
Baseflow
Runoff
Precipitation
USGS
•Recharge•GW yields•Changes in storage.•Saltwater Intrusion•Trends in GW Indices•Artificial Recharge•GW/SW Interactions
Assess Groundwater’s role in Water Availability
Groundwater depletion
trends(groundwater 30% of available
freshwater on the planet)1000 = one cubic kilometer of
depletion per year
The future (2041-2060): where do the models agree?
Many potential futures ???????
“ALSO, THE BRIDGE IS OUT AHEAD”
Focus on the critical problems: not just asking but answering the right question
Demand‐Counties with peak demand in June
Direct‐flow water rights of each primary decreed use as a percentage
of total
Wilhelmi,2011 NCAR, NOAA
Irrigated Agriculture: average (1980‐2008) irrigation diversions for June
by climate zone
Correlation with Drought Indices
Upper Colorado Basin Drought Outlooks
Revision of the Plans to meet drought requirements of the State Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan, as well as FEMA
NIDIS role
•Development of indices that incorporate current surface water conditions and a forecast component
•Assessment of trigger points and responses
•Weekly Early Warning Webinars•(coordinated with River Forecast Center briefings)
Native Nations in SW
6 million acres/ 242kha of land held in trust by the US for American
Indian tribes and Alaska Natives Reservations and tribal lands are
>25% of land in AZ Confronting same climate trends,
need same info, but context is different
• cultural ties to landscape• federal trust relationship• widely variable capacity
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Landscape changes-Drought Early Warning on Tribal Lands in the Four-Corners Region
(Nature, 2009)
Dryness of climate
Mea
n ve
geta
ti on
biom
ass
Co‐produced Scenarios: Navajo Lands
Drought SeverityDuration and Frequency
change little
Extreme Droughts
become far more common
Patterns change little
Patterns shift – more winter precipitation relative to
summer
Precipitation Patterns
Shrubland Novel Ecosystem
Mixed-grass Prairie Shortgrass Prairie
Through conversations before and during workshops, the team identified the most important and most uncertain climate drivers that will affect conditions over the next 40 years. These were combined in the following matrix. (Also note that temperature increase was a ‘given’ so it applies in all scenarios
Ecosystem becomes more susceptible to annual grass invaders. Fate of pines and other trees uncertain. Soil erosion increases. Faunal composition changes.
Increased evaporation decreases plant productivity somewhat; ecosystem change occurs, but more slowly and/or to lesser degree than in other scenarios.
Climate changes quickly to something like southern SW U.S. and species migration limited. Water table drops; streams go from perennial to intermittent or
gone. Soil erosion increases. Many fauna may not be sustainable.
Forest is more restricted by moisture than currently. Megafauna capacity decreases because
forage production is lower. Water table drops; spring and stream flow decreases or ceases,
depending on location.
Flash floods entering caves more often
Native grassland replaced by shrubland and exotic annuals
Ponderosa pine communities more susceptible to catastrophic fires due to decreasing summer precipitation
Period of frequent, intense fire followed by decrease in fire because of lack of fuel
Tough decisions regarding above-ground mission
Extreme heat events – camp fire bans
Decreased water availability
Park culls half of the bison herd – limits on carrying capacity
Changes seen as part of normal variability
Other management issues dominate
Streams more intermittent, trees dry out
The 2010-2011 South Central
U.S. Drought:Driest 2010-2011 TX, OK, NM, LA,
on record
Drought is No Stranger to Texas.
Courtesy of David Hillis, University of TexasSep 2000 May 2010
Climate Model Simulations of Historic La NinasCreating Perfect SST Analogs….24 simulations for each La Niña Since 1950
The Period Oct’10 - June’11 is the Driest 9 Months On Record for NM, TX, OK Area-Average
Did This Particular La Niña Cause This Record Drought? The Severity of the 2011 Drought Has Not Been Caused by La Nina Alone Weak and Strong Las Niñas Have Comparable Efficacy in Causing Drought
Prototyping Regional Early Warning Information Systems systems‐the NIDIS model
Allows for Existing barriers to cross‐agency collaboration to be addressed
Innovations and new information to be introduced and tested as baselines change
The benefits of participation in design, implementation and maintenance to be clarified
Mature prototypes becomes the implemented regional system and its lessons become more likely to be successfully transferred within or to other regions
”Closing” water systems, drought and scarcity As yet‐Little comprehensive understanding of the long‐term and
widespread consequences of past adaptations
Complications of changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, soil moisture, runoff, frequency and magnitudes of drought are gradually being included in response planning
Systems design, operational inflexibility, and legal and institutional constraints still reduce the adaptability of resource systems to prepare for and respond to drought
Compounded by lack of agreement on event definitions, such as what constitutes an “extraordinary” (i.e., severe and persistent) drought in different place Equitable and reasonable use of water involves definitions of broad
concepts such as “no harm,” and “optimal utilization”
Ecosystem Services: Flows Needs
• Provide tools and data to systematically assess the ecological affects of hydrologic alteration
• Assist users to develop flow or water level alteration –ecological response relationships by type of water body
Drought and Water Resources:Federal Partnerships
Monitoring & ForecastingDrought and Flood Impacts
Assessments and Scenarios
Communication and Outreach Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation
NIDIS-Early Warning Information in support of Adaptation
Risk information governance
2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk ReductionRevealing Risk, Redefining Development
NIDIS Governance: Executive Council
NIDIS Program Office NIDIS Implementation Team:
NIDIS Technical Working Groups
Regional Drought Early Warning Systems Information clearinghouse,prototypes, and Implementation
REGIONAL
NATIONAL
Public AwarenessAnd Education
Engaging PreparednessCommunities
IntegratedMonitoring and
Forecasting
InterdisciplinaryResearch andApplications
U.S.Drought Portal
WATERSHED/URBAN/LOCAL
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(i) Understanding the nature of local knowledge, (ii) the transformation processes surrounding local knowledge, (iii) the key dimensions of local knowledge on disaster preparedness, and (iv) the links between local knowledge, disaster preparedness, and livelihoods and poverty reduction.
This does not mean that all local knowledge and practices are appropriate or sustainable
More data and new technology do not always help to decrease the level of drought impacts? Is knowledge lacking?Is knowledge not used? Is knowledge used ineffectively?
Local knowledge
Transitions from applications to adaptation: Social-structural and spatial-temporal, resource management
Limits of co-production
Social-ecological
Path dependence
Organizational boundaries
Joint monitoring and joint fact-finding
IMPACTS VULNERABILITY DEVELOPMENT RESILIENCE
Translation……Transitions……Transformation
THANK YOU!