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The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program:
Oregon’s Perspective
The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program:
Oregon’s Perspective
Progress, Future Goals and Proposed Work for Fiscal Year 2008
National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Annual Meeting – Honolulu, Hawaii
November 1, 2007
Robert C. WitterOregon Regional Coastal Geologist
Jay WilsonEarthquake, Tsunami & Volcano Programs Coordinator
Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach
Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach
Continuing work on Post- Disaster Recovery Planning (w/CREW)
Continuing work towards Oregon’s unified tsunami warning standard
Developed and released the Tsunami Emergency Guidebook for Oregon Mass Media
Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach
Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach
Working closely with WFO Portland on providing guidance to Lincoln City’s new TsunamiReady Program coordinator, Althea Turner
Progress made on Seaside tsunami risk mitigation: CERT training initiated School tsunami ed program updated Acquiring Tone/Voice sire system Tsunami outreach coordinator Reverse 911
Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach
Mitigation and Preparedness Outreach
Working with WC/ATWC, reviewed and revised the tsunami warning and advisory criteria after the Kuril Islands event
Impacts in Crescent City, CA
1964 Tsunami Video1964 Tsunami VideoCompiling interviews and observations of
the 1964 Alaska tsunami in Oregon
Tom Horning discusses multiple sites inSeaside, during 1964 tsunami
1964 Tsunami Video1964 Tsunami VideoCompiling interviews and observations of
the 1964 Alaska tsunami in Oregon
1964-Seaside, Sea foam inundation, From Necanicum River
2007-Seaside,Current location,
Near Convention Center
1964 Tsunami Video1964 Tsunami VideoCompiling interviews and observations of
the 1964 Alaska tsunami in Oregon1964-Seaside, late Tsunami surge on the following day
2007-Seaside, Tsunami vulnerable Dock, especially considering new Tsunami Advisory
Observations of Tsunami Impacts
Observations of Tsunami Impacts
Mapped extent of 3 prehistoric tsunami deposits in Cannon Beach, Oregon
Used geologic data to reconstruct prehistoric landscape
Compiled historical reports on 1964 tsunami impacts
Using tsunami observations to verify computer simulations
Peat Debris layer Sand Peat
Impact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami
Impact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami
Bridge alignment
Bridge deck carried~300 m upstream
Cannon BeachElementary School
Foundation
House carried~400 m upstream
Published in the Hillsboro Argus, March 30, 1964
Bell Harbor Motel
Impact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami
Impact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami
“Bell Harbor Motel, fronting on Elk Creek at the north end of Cannon Beach, found itself in the direct path of the incoming tidal wave that swept up the little stream. The motel was inundated, and debris strewed its yard. This building roof, carried hundreds of yards, wound up in the front yard.”
Daily Astorian, March 30, 1964
Bell Harbor Motel
Comparisons of Models vs Sand SheetComparisons of Models vs Sand Sheet
Average 9
Small 1 no dune
Small 1 dune
N
meters
feet
20000
5000
Elementaryschool
Elementaryschool
ProposedSchool
ProposedSchool
City HallCity Hall
Fire StationFire Station
Cannon Beach Tsunami Hazard Assessment
Cannon Beach Tsunami Hazard Assessment
Developed new Cascadia earthquake source characterization
Finalizing 25 Cascadia tsunami scenarios
Simulated 1964 and worst-case Alaska tsunamis
Probabilistic map explores the variability and uncertainty in the earthquake source process
Expanding tsunami hazard assessment into southern Oregon
Cannon Beach, Oregon
Vertical seafloor deformation
CannonBeach
Conceptual Tsunami Hazard MapConceptual Tsunami Hazard Map
Cannon Beach, Oregon
Elementaryschool
Elementaryschool
ProposedSchool
ProposedSchool
City HallCity Hall
Fire StationFire Station
Worst-case Cascadia
“Most likely” Cascadia
Worst-case distant
Oregon’s Long-Term Goal:
Oregon’s Long-Term Goal:
Complete Cannon Beach Tsunami Hazard Assessment (winter 2008)
Develop prototype online interactive tsunami hazard and evacuation map for Cannon Beach (summer ‘08)
Use selected tsunami scenarios to map inundation hazard to entire northern Oregon coast (2009)
Complete online interactive tsunami hazard and evacuation maps for northern Oregon coast (2010)
Accelerate and complete tsunami hazard mapping
along entire Oregon coast in the next 5 years
…A Five-Year Plan…A Five-Year Plan Bandon Tsunami Hazard Assessment (fall 2007)
Develop Cascadia earthquake source characteriza-tion for southern Oregon (fall ’07-winter ’08)
Investigate prehistoric tsunami inundation and runup at Bandon, Oregon (winter-summer 2008)
Run multiple tsunami simulations for Bandon (2009)
Use selected tsunami scenarios to map inundation hazard to southern Oregon coast communities (2010)
Complete mapping of southern Oregon coast (2011)
Education and outreach (ongoing)
FY 2008 Oregon ProposalTask 1 – Mitigation and Preparedness
Develop effective public outreach programs and media tools Presentations to Lodging Assoc., CERTs, Oregon State Parks Tsunami Emergency Guidebook for Oregon Mass Media PSAs and press packets
Develop the next generation tsunami evacuation maps for Cannon Beach as digital online interactive maps (ARC IMS) Consistent information and style Zoomable to business or home location
Explore feasibility of an Oregon Tsunami Advisory workgroup
Support NOAA-NWS TsunamiReady activities
Contribute to NTHMP and international mitigation effortsTask 1 CostsLaborNon-labor
$57,242$7,235
$64,477
FY 2008 Oregon ProposalTask 2 – Inundation Modeling and Mapping
Task 2 CostsLaborNon-labor
$108,241$66,108
$174,349
Complete compilation of eyewitness observations for video documentary of past tsunami impacts on the Oregon coast
Develop new earthquake source models for southern Cascadia
Complete probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments for southern Cascadia at Bandon, Oregon
Develop the next generation tsunami hazard maps using an online interactive map display (ARC IMS)
FY 2008 Oregon ProposalTask 3 – Tsunami Notification Infrastructure
Support efforts of coastal communities to mitigate tsunami risk
Ensure that communities have access to multiple communication pathways for tsunami warnings
Participate in end-to-end tests of the tsunami alert system
Task 3 CostsLaborNon-labor
$0$36,174
$36,174Total NTHMP CostsLaborNon-labor
$160,483$109,517
$275,000