Post on 21-Mar-2017
transcript
The New Age of Politics and Media
Lee Rainie - @lrainieDirector - Internet, Science and Technology ResearchFebruary 16, 2017Flagler College
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First revolution – Internet (90% use it) Broadband
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016
1%
73%Skews youngerMore upscale by income and educationTilts urban/suburban
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Second revolution – Mobile
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
29%
81%95% have cell phones51% have tablet computers
SmartphonesSkews youngerA bit smaller differences by socio-economic classTilts urban/suburban
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Facebook Pinterest Instagram LinkedIn Twitter0
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20
30
40
50
60
70
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100
67
15 13 20 16
79
31 32 29 24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016%
% of internet users
Personal networks are:More important – trustDifferently composed –
segmented, layeredAssuming new roles
Pew Research danah boydpervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visibleportable replicablepersonal scalableparticipatory searchable linked and unlinkedspreadable
COLLAPSED CONTEXTS OF COMMUNICATION
More nichesMore topics of
discussion (and different “news” agendas”)
More alliances More argumentsMore DIY workMore disclosureMore surveillance
sousveillance coveillance
More people in decision-making spaces crowdsourcing / funding
More filtering by algorithms More evidence (but not causation) of everything humans do:
Love Altruism Brilliance
HateSelfishnessStupidity
People are more personally empowered
Easier to find like-minded allies, even in tiny niches
Easier to raise money and mobilize
Easier to leap barriers of all kindsEasier to mobilize (maybe
even new people) Additive – use old methods PLUS new
ones
The political landscape of 2016 Long-term demographic divides in partisanship Many – race, gender, age – long pre-dated this election Some – particularly education (sometimes seen as a proxy for
class) – emerged as a more potent force this cycle Partisan polarization guaranteed Trump a solid
floor Deepening ideological divides by party in recent decades Partisan polarization not confined to policy differences,
increasingly tied to media use and it’s emotional (“affective polarization”)
Mood of the country in recent years increasingly inhospitable to “continuity” candidates, more open to a change agent
The gender gap in partisan identification% of registered voters who identify as…
Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituencyPresidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity
Source: National Election Pool exit polls
Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obama’s electionsPresidential vote preference, by age
Source: National Election Pool exit polls
… even more pronounced among whites% of registered voters who identify as…
Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
25www.pewresearch.org
A historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferencesPresidential vote preference, by educational attainment
Source: National Election Pool exit polls
More Democrats take liberal positions, More Republicans take conservative positions
Source: 2014 Political Polarization in the American Public, 2015 Views of Government
Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than in the past
Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values
Affective polarization also much stronger now
Source: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.
Consistent liberals & conservatives often live in different media worlds
Source: 2014 Media Polarization
The internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill
Fourth revolution – Internet of Things, Metaverse, Virtual Reality, Artificial Reality, Self-propelling stuff