TheParisAgreement

TheJourneyThusFar…

• FirstWorldClimateChangeConference(1979)• IPCC(1988)andAR1(1990)• UNFCCC(Rio1992)• KyotoProtocol(1997)• TheCopenhagenSummit(2009)• TheRoadtoParis

COP21:Paris2015(Nov.30– Dec.12)

• 196partiestoUNFCCCpresentinParis

• 19,385nationaldelegates

• 8,338observers• 8,825media• 2,500workinggroups

TheParisAgreement

http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php

Article2(AgreementAims)• Holdingtheincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandtopursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels.

• Increasingtheabilitytoadapttotheadverseimpactsofclimatechangeandfosterclimateresilienceandlowgreenhousegasemissionsdevelopment,inamannerthatdoesnotthreatenfoodproduction.

• Makingfinanceflowsconsistentwithapathwaytowardslowgreenhousegasemissionsandclimate-resilientdevelopment.

ParisAgreementFeatures

• RequiresPartiestosubmitnationallydeterminedcontributions,detailinghowtheywillreducegreenhousegasemissionsdomesticallyandtoassistdevelopedcountriesinmitigationandadaptation.

ParisAgreementFeatures

• Partiesaimtoreachglobalpeakingofgreenhousegasemissionsassoonaspossible,recognizingthatpeakingwilltakelongerfordevelopingcountryParties,andtoundertakerapidreductionsthereafterinaccordancewithbestavailablescience…onthebasisofequity,andinthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty.

ParisAgreementFeatures

• Commitmentsmadebypartiesarerenewedatleastevery5yearsandmustbeprogressivelymoreambitious.

• Requiresdevelopedcountriestoprovidefinancingtoassistdevelopedcountrieswithmitigationandadaptation.

AFundamentallyDifferentApproach?

• AllIn– Previousnegotiationsandtreaties(UNFCCCandKyotoProtocol)centeredonafirmdivisionbetweendeveloped(AnnexI)anddeveloping(AnnexII)countries.OnlyAnnexIcountrieswereobligatedtoreduceGHGemissions.

– IntheParisAgreement,allcountries,notjustdevelopedones,aresupposedtocurbemissions.

AFundamentallyDifferentApproach?

• PotLuck– PreviousnegotiationsdividedupresponsibilityamongdevelopedcountriesforGHGemissionsreductionstargets.ThoseweretobeimplementedbyAnnexIcountriesandenforcedthroughinternationallaw.

– IntheParisAgreement,eachcountrydevelopeditsownIntendedNationallyDeterminedContributionsbasedonnationalcircumstancesandbroughtthemtotheParisconference.

AFundamentallyDifferentApproach?

• NotBinding– TheUNFCCCandtheKyotoprotocol(andeffortstoreplacethem)werelegallybindinginternationaltreaties.

– TheParisAgreementisnot.RatherthanenforcingGHGemissionstargetsthroughalegallybindingtreaty,theParisAgreementaimstomobilizepoliticalpressure(bothinternationalanddomestic)toencouragecompliance.Theagreementcreatesasetoftransparencymeasuresandaprocessforregularlyandpubliclyreviewingeachcountry’sprogress.

AFundamentallyDifferentApproach?

• FutureCommitments– Everyfiveyears,beginningin2020,eachcountrywillbeexpectedtocontributeanewnationalplanforreducingemissions.

Positives

• Moreconsistentwitheconomicandpoliticalrealities

Positives

• Moreconsistentwitheconomicandpoliticalrealities

• Movesenforcementfromtheinternationaltothedomesticrealm

Positives

• Moreconsistentwitheconomicandpoliticalrealities

• Movesenforcementfromtheinternationaltothedomesticrealm

• Moreflexibleinthefaceofrapidchange

Negatives

• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.

INDCs

• http://cait.wri.org/indc/

Negatives

• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.• Notimetableforapeakyear.

Negatives

• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.• Notimetableforapeakyear.• Lackofspecificsonincreasingfundingforpoorercountriesbeyond$100billionby2020andonlossanddamageprinciples.

Negatives

• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.• Notimetableforapeakyear.• Lackofspecificsonincreasingfundingforpoorercountriesbeyond$100billionby2020andonlossanddamageprinciples.

• Thedeveloped/developingcountrydivideremains.

Negatives

• Emissionsreductionspledgesfallshort.• Notimetableforapeakyear.• Lackofspecificsonincreasingfundingforpoorercountriesbeyond$100billionby2020andonlossanddamageprinciples.

• Thedeveloped/developingcountrydivideremains.

• Complianceandenforcementwillbeweak.

AprèsParis

• 2016MoroccoSummit• The2020test• TheUnitedStates

TheParisAgreement