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Eilif Trondsen, Ph.D.Program Director
28 October1999
The Rise of eCommerce & eLearning:
Opportunities & Challenges
The Rise of eCommerce & eLearning:
Opportunities & Challenges
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© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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Agenda Agenda
The large Context
Selected eC & eL Developments*
What’s Ahead?
New Business Opportunities
Emerging Challenges
* eC=eCommerce, eL= eLearning;
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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The Large Context
Historical Perspective on eC
The Large Context
Historical Perspective on eC“eCommerce is to the Information Revolution what the
Railroad was to the Industrial Revolution—a totally new,
totally unexpected development. And like the railroad
170 years ago, eCommerce is creating a new and distinct
boom, rapidly changing the economy, society, and politics.”
Peter Drucker, “Beyond the
Information Revolution,” The
Atlantic Monthly, October 1999
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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The Large Context
Historical Perspective on eC
The Large Context
Historical Perspective on eC“In the new mental geography created by the railroad, humanity
mastered distance. In the mental geography of eCommerce,
distance has been eliminated. There is only one economy and
only one market. One consequence of this is that every business
must become globally competitive, even if it manufactures or
sells only within a local or regional market.”
Peter Drucker, “Beyond the
Information Revolution,” The
Atlantic Monthly, October 1999
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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The Large Context
Drucker on eCommerce
The Large Context
Drucker on eCommerce“eCommerce is profoundly changing economies, markets, and
industry structures; products and their flow; consumer
segmentation, consumer values, and consumer behavior; jobs
and labor markets. But the impact may be even greater on
societies and politics and, above all, on the way we see the
world and ourselves in it.”
Peter Drucker, “Beyond the
Information Revolution,” The
Atlantic Monthly, October 1999
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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The Large Context
Drucker on learningThe Large Context
Drucker on learning“Productivity in knowledge work and service work demands
that we build continuous learning into the organization.
Knowledge demands continuous learning because it is
constantly changing. To obtain the improvement in productivity
which the post-capitalist society now needs, the organization
has to become both a learning and teaching organization.”
Peter Drucker, Post-Capitalist Society (1993)
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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The Large Context
Towards eLearning: Drivers
The Large Context
Towards eLearning: Drivers
New learning infrastructures: intranet & Internet
“Time to knowledge”
Distributed workforce
Cost and competitive pressures
Need to integrate learning into work processes
Arrival of “Nintendo Generation” into workforce
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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Selected eC & eL Developments
“Internuts Mania”Selected eC & eL Developments
“Internuts Mania”New rules for new economy
Virtuous circle of “.com”market evaluations
Building the new Internet infrastructure
Shift from products to services—HP introducing E-Speak: “universal language for eServices”
Proliferation of alliances
Internet bringing flood of innovations (in both products and business models) and start-ups
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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Selected eC & eL Developments
New times..new alliances..
Selected eC & eL Developments
New times..new alliances..
“The alliance between the two giants [Ford and Microsoft; to receive auto orders online] in their respective industries underscores how eCommerce is challenging traditional ways of doing business, and pushing the high-technology and manufacturing industries closer together.”
Wall Street Journal
September 20, 1999
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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Selected eC & eL Developments
Mayfield Fund investment
Selected eC & eL Developments
Mayfield Fund investment
Wirelesscompanies
Satellitecompanies
Telecommunictionscompanies eCommerce
Infrastructurecompanies
••
•
•
High-speed data & TV wide area networks
Fiber-optic companies
•
eCommercservices Enterprise
applications& Tools
Web and Digital TV
applications
Digital media chips Communications chips
Internet Infrastructuresoftware
Internet Infrastructurecompanies
•
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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Selected eC & eL Developments
Top eCommerce sites
Selected eC & eL Developments
Top eCommerce sites
Company Product Revenue*
Amazon.com Books, CDs, videos 307
E*Trade Stock trading 215
Onsale Computer equipment, auctions 149
Ameritrade Stock trading 139
Peapod Groceries 69
CDnow Music 33
Cyberian Outpost Computer gear 30
N2K** Music 25
Beyond.com Software 24
* Million dollars; June 1987-June 1998
** Merged with CDnow Source: Internet World
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Selected eC & eL Developments
Nothing but ‘NetSelected eC & eL Developments
Nothing but ‘NetInternet investments are commanding a growing share of venture capitalists’
total outlays
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
1998 1999
$1
$2
$3
$4
30
40
50
60%
Internet investments (billions); left scale
Percent of all venture capital outlays (right scale)
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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Selected eC & eL Developments
eL: Replay of eC experience?
Selected eC & eL Developments
eL: Replay of eC experience?
Growing media attention and “hype”
Virtual universities versus corporate learning
Rising innovation and investments
eLearning gaining top management attention
Learning portals emerging: on intranets and Internet
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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Selected eC & eL Developments
Cisco: Leadership on both fronts
Selected eC & eL Developments
Cisco: Leadership on both fronts
eCommerce:
Handles 78% of its orders over Net and never touches half of them
70% of 20,000 resumes montly via Net
eLearning:
eLearning Executive Council
Building internal learning architecture
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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What’s Ahead
Growth of online services
What’s Ahead
Growth of online services
Travel Arrangements
Retail Stock Brokerage
Automobile Commissions
Concert and Sports Tickets
1998
2002
10 20 30 40 50
Source: SRI ConsultingPercent online
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What’s Ahead
Growth of online products
What’s Ahead
Growth of online products
Consumer Software
Personal Computers
Books
Music
Videos
Specialty gifts
Flowers
Toys
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1998
2002
Percent online
2020
80
60
50
75
70
50
10
50
Source: SRI Consulting
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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What’s Ahead
Distribution Space with Hybrid Strategies
What’s Ahead
Distribution Space with Hybrid Strategies
On land
Both OnlineAnd on land
Onlineonly
Marketplace creatorcontrols distribution
Product creatorcontrols distribution
The Brick- and Mortar-StoreStrength: Shopping Experience
The Expert Strength:Expertise
The Online RetailerStrength: Convenience
The Online ProducerStrength: Loyalty
Macy’s Radio Shack
Macys.comRadio ShackOnline
HollywoodVideo
Garden EscapeMagazine
Reel.com Garden.com
The Gap
Gap Online
GatewayCountry Stores
In-StoreBraches
GatewaySecurity First
Schwab.com
Charles Schwab
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What’s Ahead?
Top management will (finally) get it...
What’s Ahead?
Top management will (finally) get it...
Despite enormous publicity and rapid growth in both BTB and BTC eCmany in top management have not yet understood what is coming…….
“Out of 119 board directors and CEOs of global corporations surveyed, not one believed that the effects of e-business was an important problem facing their company.”
PriceWaterhouseCooper
It is surprising how overall technology goals are not in line with how these companies [SMEs surveyed] use the Internet. The Web site is more of a toy than a business tool.”
The Yankee Group
BTB: Business to Business; BTC: Business to Consumer
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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What’s Ahead?
…and laggards will catch up
What’s Ahead?
…and laggards will catch up
“The recent e-Business & Technology Survey conduced by the CutterConsortium indicates that 65% of business lack an overall e-Commercestrategy, and almost a fourth of companies do not have a basic businessimplementation plan for e-commerce.”
InternetWeek, September 6, 1999
The study, “e-Business in a Connected World,” shows that many UK directors fail to understand the impact of technology, believing that business on the Internet is “someone else’s job.”
The Financial Times, September 29, 1999
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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What’s Ahead
Technology remaining key driver
What’s Ahead
Technology remaining key driver
Greater bandwidth will stimulate growth of both eC and eL
3-D graphics found to boost online spending
Enrich content for eLearning
Cheaper and better computers and portable devices—for both eCommerce and eLearning
Wireless communication will drive major change on both eCommerce and eLearning fronts
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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What’s Ahead
More effective eLearning What’s Ahead
More effective eLearning
Greater supply, variety, and higher quality content
More dynamic learning modules
Improved interactivity while learning
Greater use of learning communities
Beyond courses to smaller learning “chunks”
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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What’s Ahead
Increased integration of eC and eLWhat’s Ahead
Increased integration of eC and eL
EmploymentServicesManufacturing
eCommerceCommerceWeb-BasedCollaborationKnowledgeManagement
eCommerceeServiceseLearningLearningCommunities
$
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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New Business Opportunities
eC: Shift to Software & Services
New Business Opportunities
eC: Shift to Software & Services
Outsourcing/hosting services
Customer relationship management—Web-based
Unified messaging—voice, fax, and e-mail
Growing range of eC software
Logistics and fulfillment for eC
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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New Business Opportunities
New needs emerging from web
New Business Opportunities
New needs emerging from web
Capture, management, and protection of Web-based data
Analytical tools for creating value from Web-generated data
Design of product/service that simplify—reduce complexity and/or uncertainty
Creation of highly personalized Web experiences
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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New Business Opportunities
eL: Profiting from eLearning
New Business Opportunities
eL: Profiting from eLearning
Create learning modules and content for specific market segments
Intermediate/aggregate learning content
Organize and mediate communities of interest
Design innovative learning software—and demonstrating improved work performance
Meet growing life-long-learning needs
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New services:Corporate portals, collaboration tools
(XML, visto.com, hotoffice.com, SAP)
New Business Opportunities
eL: Growth at interfacesNew Business Opportunities
eL: Growth at interfaces
New services:Universities, learning portals
(ehow.com, learn2.com)
Topic of recent 4 hourSeminar at SRI
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New Business Opportunities
Creating value via eLearning
New Business Opportunities
Creating value via eLearning
Intrafirm
Supply Chain
Value
Chain
Value-Added Resellers and Other Channels
• Integration• Product managers• Profit centers• Component-based
Customers
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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New Business Opportunities
eLearning dashboardNew Business Opportunities
eLearning dashboardWeb SitesLearning DashboardCoursesDiscussionGroupsSeminarsand LecturesPersonalizedNews
IT andeCommerceIndustry andCompetitiveIntelligenceOtherOtherOtherAt WorkAt School/UniversityLaptop with WirelessInternet Connection
At HomeOn the Road
DatabasewithInformationfor CompleteLearnerProfile
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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Emerging Challenges
How to keep up with pace of change?
Emerging Challenges
How to keep up with pace of change?
High Uncertainty about future
Compressed time frames to
make decisions
Increasing difficulty catching-up
as pace increases
Increasing penalty from mistakes
as competitive intensity
increases
Planning is limitedReacting is insufficientTraditional strategies of “build and defend” position” are inadequate
Source: Kathleen Eishenhardt; Stanford University
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Emerging Challenges
Creating dynamic filtering mechanisms
Emerging Challenges
Creating dynamic filtering mechanisms
Too many opportunities?—staying focused…
…while watching external trends—and threats
Too many distractions and information overload
Merging of work & leisure
Finding right balance between the new and old
© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.© 1999 by SRI Consulting. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction prohibited.
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Contact InformationContact Information
Eilif Trondsen, Ph.D.
Program Director
Tel: 650-859-2665
Fax: 650-859-4544
E-mail: etrondsen@sric.sri.com
Business Intelligence Center: http://future.sri.com
LoD: http://future.sri.com/LoD-PS.shtml