The rising digital intensity of manufacturing Changing the rules of the game Irene J. Petrick, Ph.D....

transcript

The rising digital intensity of manufacturing

Changing the rules of the game

Irene J. Petrick, Ph.D.ipetrick@ist.psu.edu

Irene J. Petrick

SIM – DC City Club

May 13, 2014

SIM© Irene J. Petrick 2014

AbstractIn the past several decades, manufacturers have seen disruptions coming from competing production technologies and from low cost global competitors. Today and into the future, the disruptions are coming from sources many don't even see coming. Specifically, the future manufacturing landscape will be enabled by developments in information technology. Access to high performance computing at a cost competitive rate will level the playing field for advanced modeling, analytics and simulation. When combined with developments in 3d printing/additive manufacturing, one-off highly customized production will compete with mass production. Current manufacturers will need to learn how these 3d printing/additive manufacturing technologies can coexist alongside their more traditional processes. As these tools become simpler to use, Internet-savvy hobbyists and do-it-yourselfers will effectively be able to challenge very established firms. Cloud supported services will be a viable replacement for extensive enterprise resource planning and customer relationship management systems and will provide the real time visibility into the supply chain and production environment that customers will demand. And the final IT based enabler that will democratize manufacturing? Social-media based funding models such as Kickstarter. In the coming decade the installed base that has been a barrier to entry for new firms will become a barrier to change for many established manufacturers.

• Assertions– 3D printing/additive manufacturing is ON THE

HORIZON and will achieve end-part quality in multiple materials in the coming years

– The roles and rules of traditional supply chains are becoming obsolete

– Competition will come from unexpected participants– Economies of scale will go from a barrier to entry to a

barrier to change

• Economies of One will coexist and compete with Economies of Scale

• Digitally intensive tools will change the face of manufacturing

IT driven trends in the production & operational environment

FUTURE SCENARIO

IT driven design and production

enables Economies of

Trend 1: Technical (high performance)

computing capabilities enable

complex design and simulation

Trend 2: Additive manufacturing attains commercial viability for multiple materials

Trend 3: Cloud-based IT solutions

reduce administrative overhead for smaller

enterprises and enable new business

modelsTrend 4: Social

media-based funding models democratize

production investments

Trend 5: Internet savvy do-it-yourself hobbyists embrace

open source innovation tools

Design & production as experimentation

The rise of the “Any Man”

“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” -- Arthur C. Clark

• Where is the magic?– Design– Production– Post Production– Delivery/distribution

DesignPost

Production

Distribution

Simplified ecosystem

• Well understood roles & responsibilities• Reducing complexity is key to competitive

advantage• Design as a “finished” input to production

Production

Changing nature of design & designers

Design Design SoftwareISVs, Computing

Hardware

3D Printer

Scanners, Smartphone Apps

Reverse Engineering& Modeling

Internet DesignFiles & KitsApp Designers

Hobbyists &Prosumers

AnimatorsEngineersArchitects

ManufacturersDesign Firms

Imagination DigitalCustomization, Solid Models, Surface Models

Physical DigitalModeling External and Internal Features

Digital ActionableStandards, File Formats, Instruction Sets,Design Rules

Unique FirmwarePrinter Manufacturers

Design

Changing nature of production & post production

3D PrinterPost

Production

Polymers, Powders, Binders, GasMaterials Producers, Auxiliary Suppliers

Inventory SitesMaterials Producers,

Printer Makers, Distributors

Unique HardwarePrinter Manufacturers

Net/NearNet Shape

Experimentation & RedesignCollaborative Innovation

Post Production

Fixturing & Material

Removal

Surface Finishing

Feature Enhancements

Heat Treatment

Physical Feature TestingPart Characterization, Material Handling, Recycling

Process Parameter FrameworkToolpath, Process Plan, Machine Parameters, Support, Orientation, Material Parameters

Printer Hubs

Changing nature of distribution

3D PrinterDesignPost

Production

Direct Distribution

UPS, USPS, FedEx

3D Printer

Printer as the Ultimate FAX Machine

Local Manufacturing or Traditional Shipping

Local Manufacturers

Internet File

The dynamics of Economies of One …

• Fewer clear boundaries in the design-build-deliver paradigm

• Design and production as experimentation• Modeling & designing-in complexity yields

competitive advantage• Proximity matters• From long-term planning to real-time

planning• IT becomes a critical skillset

Local Artisan & Craftsman Production

Centralized Production &

Delivery

Centralized Production with Distributed Low

Cost Supply Sourcing &

Distributed Delivery

MechanizationUrbanization

& Capital Consolidation

Modern Transportation & Information Systems

Mass Customization & “My Way” Consumer/Customer Demand

Internet-based Business

Processes & Design with Virtual

Manufacturing Production

Competitive Advantage through Economies of Scale & Scope

Competitive Advantage through Economies of One

Manufacturing Returns to the Garage

The return of the artisan entrepreneur

myFactory

QUESTION: Who is a manufacturer? Who

is a designer?

Cubify.com

TheMicro.com – Kickstarter Funded

Cloud-based business models

Intermediary

Distributed Network of 3D Manufacturers

Virtual Factories

ProsumersEngineersArchitects

Makerspaces, Job shops3D printer hubs

For existing manufacturers …

Great gifts• Customization is feasible

(Economies of One)• Production of

replacement parts is simplified

• Manufacturing is sexy again

• Entrepreneurs drive change in unanticipated ways

Serious challenges• We don’t know how to

design for this technology• Cloud-based business

models enable artisan entrepreneurs to compete

• Extensive installed base is a barrier to change

• Digital intensity increases the demand for skilled IT professionals

The future is here…

Dr. Irene J. Petrick is a Penn State University professor and managing director of the TrendScape Innovation Group. She is an internationally recognized expert in strategic roadmapping and has been actively engaged in advanced manufacturing issues. Her research interests include technology forecasting, collaborative innovation and business ecosystem development. She is actively engaged with companies in their innovation and technology strategy activities, including work with twelve Fortune 100 companies, the U.S. military, and a wide variety of small to medium sized enterprises. She has over 25 years of experience in technology planning, management and product development in both the academic and industrial settings. She has been named a Boeing Welliver Fellow, a CSC Faculty Intern in India, and has spent three summers full time with Intel Corporation focused on innovation strategies (2010-2012). Irene is author or co-author on more than 150 publications and presentations. (http://strategic-technology-roadmapping.com/)

The rising digital intensity of manufacturing Changing the rules of the game Irene J. Petrick, Ph.D....

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