Post on 21-Jun-2020
transcript
The Semiconductor Industry:
Changed and Unchanged
July 11, 2017
Tetsuro Higashi
Corporate Advisor, Corporate Director
Tokyo Electron Limited
Photos (Apple II, Intel 8085): Wikipedia
My 40 years in the industry
1977
I joined TEL™
Apple II and Intel 8085 introduced
Apple II Intel 8085 8-bit Microprocessor TEL-Thermco Horizontal Diffusion Furnace
2
2017 vs. 1977
World population 4.2B 7.4B
WFE <$2B $40B
TEL sales <¥20B ¥800B*
Technology node 3μm 10nm
x20
x40
x1/300
x1.8
My age 27 67+40
1977 2017
3
*TEL’s FY 2017 ended March 31, 2017
2017 vs. 2057
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055
Assuming 2017-2057
CAGR 7% and 5%
2057
$5,600B
$2,600B
$ Billion
2017
$378Bwe are here
Source: WSTS (1986~2017F), TEL
Semiconductor market
1986-2017
CAGR 9%
4
The singularity in 2027
The biggest paradigm shift in human history
Inte
llectu
alpow
er
20271950
AI
Human Intelligence
without AI
Human intelligence
empowered by AI
The Singularity
5
Interface: Edge computing
AR/VR
Experience and Feeling
Medical device, smartphone, wearable, sensors, etc.
7
Already achieved superior performance than human parts individually
“Hearable”
Speaker
Haptics
CPU
DRAM
Flash memory
CIS
Actuators
Analog
Flash memory
CPU
DRAM
CIS
Past: Evolution of semiconductor devices as parts
11
It’s time to make a pizza! = Innovation as a system
Analog
Flash memory
CPU
DRAM
CIS/ISP** Image signal processor
Now: Pursue “super integration” in addition to “specialty”
12
NeuromorphicNeumann
Future: Missing link of conventional semiconductors = inspiration & creativity
“Neumann plus Neuromorphic” will create the true intelligence
Rule-based, Algorithm, Consistent, ・・・ Problem-finding, Experience, Flexible, ・・・
Brain
13
It will be in the future, rather than the past,
that the semiconductor industry creates
the intelligence to extend capability of
human beings
14
My view of the industry
Healthy competition & global collaboration is the key to success
Unchanged
1977
2017
2057
Mission:
Contribute to human & social evolution
Core-competence:
Technology innovation & global care
Shared value:
Venture spirits, competition, collaboration
15
Semiconductor is still in a budding stage waiting to bloom.
Healthy competition heals dissatisfaction of technology.
Collaboration makes innovation.
16
We know: