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The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems for Integrity Management of Gas Distribution
Pipeline Networks
Presentation to ONEOK CorporationJanuary 19-21, 2010
Who is Optima
• Established in 1984• Pioneer in developing models and methods for
large-scale decision and optimization problems in: • Risk assessment and safety enhancement• Asset management• Maintenance and improvement strategies for infrastructure networks• Optimal replacement and budget planning
• Characteristics of Problems Solved:• Multi-objective problems with budget constraints• Uncertainties, incomplete information and probabilistic
consequences: optimal decisions under uncertainty • Dynamic decisions and multi-stage planning• Need for multi-disciplinary effort
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Systems for Gas Utilities
• Tubis• Comprehensive decision support tool for risk assessment, risk reduction
and cost optimization of gas distribution networks
• Super-Tubis• Unique optimization system for monitoring, coordinating, and allocating
resources to independent networks to achieve corporate objectives while maintaining independence of network decisions
• SALAS • Innovative, unique, fast and inexpensive tool for segmenting pipe networks
and attaching pipe data and histories to individual pipes
•Meter Sampling and Replacement Model• Optimal sampling of residential meters and optimal repair/replacement
strategies
• Gas Supply Planning Model• Optimal strategies for purchasing, storing and transporting natural gas when
uncertainties in cost, capacity and availability exist
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Other Systems for Infrastructures
• Pontis• National bridge management system adopted by FHWA and AASHTO,
implemented in 48 states. Won 1996 Edelman Prize
• Road Network Optimization System (NOS) • Beginning with Arizona pavement management system, it has transformed
network pavement management worldwide. Won 1982 Edelman Prize
• PRISM• Latest generation of road management system implemented in several
European countries
• ASOP• System for optimal selection of performance levels—widely used in
maintaining non-pavement elements and bridge management
•Multi-network Management System for City of Beijing
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Under Development
•Web-based Tubis system
•Multi-attribute risk assessment model for plastic pipes (OTD and GTI)
• Tubis plastic module (ONEOK)
• Country-wide multi-network optimization model (Portugal, Hungary)
• Tubis for water networks- Pilot
• Tubis for electrical transmission networks (feasibility study for PSE&G)
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Awards
• The Institute for Management Sciences• 1982 Winner of International TIMS Competition and
Edelman Prize – for Arizona PMS
• The Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences• 1996 Edelman Finalist Prize – for Pontis
Edelman Prize is an annual award to the winner of international competition for ‘the most innovative high impact application of management sciences’
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Infrastructure Management Clients
• Federal Highway Administration
• The World Bank
• Portugal National Road Directorate
• Ministry of Communications, Saudi Arabia
• States of California, Arizona, Kansas, Vermont, Washington, Minnesota, North Carolina
• City of San Francisco
• City of Beijing
• National Science Foundation
• The Urban Institute
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World Bank
Energy Clients
• US Department of Energy
• Gas Research Institute
• New York Gas Group
• Gas Technology Institute
• Rochester Gas and Electric
• Niagara Mohawk
• Central Hudson Gas and Electric
• Pacific Gas and Electric
• KeySpan Energy Corporation
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Energy Clients (continued)
• British Gas
• Gaz de France
• Long Island Lighting Company
• Dominion: Pennsylvania, Ohio
• ONEOK Corporation
• New Jersey Natural Gas
• Consolidated Edison of NY
• CenterPoint Energy
• Public Service Electric and Gas
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Benefits of PMS in Arizona
• Saved $14 million ($32 vs. $46 million in first year)
• Saved over $100 million in next 5 years
• Focal point of centralized decision process
•Coordinated data gathering and management
•Made budget requests defensible
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Impacts of Arizona PMS
•Pioneering system and impetus for Intermodal Surface Transportation Act• Forms the core of courses in infrastructure mgt• Some countries and states using the model:
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• Holland• Finland• Portugal• Hungary• Australia (NSW)• Saudi Arabia• Greece
• Arizona• Kansas• Alaska• Colorado• California• New Jersey
Impacts of Pontis
•Major and influential system, adopted by Federal Highway Administration and AASHTO
• Implemented in 48 States
• Fundamentally changed all aspects of:• Data gathering and information management• Maintenance, repair and replacement decisions, and • Federal funding allocations for managing bridge networks in US
• Adopted by several other countries• Forms the core of infrastructure management courses
in Berkeley, M.I.T. and Cornell, among others
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Impacts of Tubis
• Has influenced (we hope) risk management by introducing rigorous analytical methods and learning systems to deal with uncertainties
• Approved by NY PSC, CA PUC, OPS and NTSB
• Saved CHG&E 8 mill. in penalties
• Helped PG&E negotiate budget for cast iron replacement in San Francisco
• Helped RG&E settle long-standing regulatory issues
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Introduction to PA Consulting
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PA Consulting has a world-wide presence and is involved in Energy in many countries. PA is probably the largest utility consulting firm in the world
Revenues $ 660 Million Staffing: ~ 4,000
AmericasAmericasBoulder, COBoulder, COBuenos AiresBuenos AiresCambridge, MACambridge, MAChicago, IlChicago, IlHouston, TXHouston, TXLos Angeles, CALos Angeles, CAMadison, WIMadison, WINew York, NYNew York, NYPlainsboro, NJPlainsboro, NJWashington, DCWashington, DC
Main U.S. Office In D.C.
Asia-PacificAsia-PacificAustralia Australia JapanJapanChinaChina MalaysiaMalaysiaHong KongHong Kong New ZealandNew ZealandIndonesia Indonesia SingaporeSingapore
Optima and PA Group Inc. are working together to expand their footprint in this market.
EuropeEuropeBelgiumBelgium ItalyItalyCzech RepublicCzech Republic LuxembourgLuxembourgDenmarkDenmark NetherlandsNetherlandsFinlandFinland NorwayNorwayFranceFrance SpainSpainGermanyGermany SwedenSwedenIrelandIreland United KingdomUnited Kingdom
Who is PA?
PA’s has a number of related practices.Over 20% of PA’s market share is in Energy.
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Environmental & Resource Analytics
Product & Process Engineering
Strategy &Marketing
Energy Global Strategy & Industries
Business Transformation
Systems Integration & Solutions
Government Transport & Infrastructure
IT Consulting & Technology
Wireless Technology
Manufacturing
Wholesale Energy Markets
Energy Strategy & Risk Management
Enterprise Wide Solutions
FinancialServices
Project Management
Business Ops & Performance
People & Organizational Change
IS Implementation
Transportation
Infrastructure & Dev Services
Gov’t & Public Services
Life Sciences & Technology
Decision Sciences
IT Infrastructure
IT Strategy
EnergyBusiness Transformation
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The Problem
•What is the optimal balance between• Risk reduction • Short-term costs• Long-term costs• Public perception
•What is the value of additional inspection/data?
•What additional data should be collected?
•What is the optimal pipe replacement policy?
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Objectives
•Reduce risks to public•Reduce risks to property•Preserve investments in distribution systems•Minimize expected long term costs•Maintain reliability of service•Meet regulatory concerns• Coordinate with other activities
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Analysis & Decision Making
Risk Management of Gas Pipes
Individual Recommended Actions
Information
Data
knowledge
Need More Information
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Issues
•New regulations • External and internal economic concerns•Dynamism of budget planning•Actions and budge spent now affect:• future conditions • future risks• future actions needed• future costs
•Decisions are made under uncertainty
Areas of Uncertainty
•Physical condition of pipes• Soil environment of pipes•Rates of deterioration•Consistency of past information•History on construction, repair and other activities• Effect of various factors on failure rates• Future regulatory requirements
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Approach
•Use common basis for assessment of all risks•Produce policies that can be • quantified• justified
• Show effect of policies (or lack of) on• future conditions• future risks• future budget needs• future asset value
Design Considerations
• Comprehensive information management, budget allocation, and planning tool
• Rigorous, defensible system
• Require minimum amount of past data
• Be easy to use and inexpensive to implement.
• Address corporate and regulatory concerns.
• Implement, improve and expand
• Compatible with GIS and other systems
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This presentation is confidential to Optima Inc. and should not be duplicated or distributed.
Overview Optima Incorporated
Objective
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• Tubis is a comprehensive information management, gas pipeline maintenance and risk management system designed to assist gas utilities with decisions in maintenance and replacement planning and resource allocation. The principal objectives of the system are to help in:• Increasing public safety,• Reducing risks to property,•Minimizing overall short and long term costs, and• Preserving the integrity of the pipeline system
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Specification
Experience
Opportunity
Maintenance
Survey
History
Policy
Network Information
RiskManagement
Resource Allocation
Replace
Repair
Mantain
Tubis Recommendations
Meeting Data Needs
• The foundation of Tubis information needs is a database of segments from your network and relevant info which is produced jointly with client.
• We can use geographic information system or a proprietary product developed by Optima, known as SALAS to build it.
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Geographic Information
Company Leak Data
Knowledge & Practice
Dynamic Updating
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General Features of Tubis
• A state-of-the-art system to assist planners in pipe replacement decisions
• A defensible tool for optimal budget planning
• A database management system for all relevant field, historical, and economic data.
• A formal mechanism for building on experience and judgment of engineers.
• Ability to automatically achieve higher accuracy with time.
Functions of Tubis
•Pipe and leak dynamic information management•Risk assessment •Risk management•Optimal pipe replacement•Network-wide risk management•Network-wide optimization
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Characteristics of Tubis
• Provides comprehensive information management
• Uses existing knowledge base
•Models learn automatically with time
• Extensive optimization capabilities
• Can coordinate with public work ‘opportunities’
• Defensible risk and seismic models
• Considers economics, risk, environmental, segment specific data, population, and corporate policy
• Answers ‘what if ?’ questions
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Optimization and Planning Models
•Provides answers for:• budget planning• resource allocation• prioritization of replacements• coordination with ‘opportunities’• effect of budget and length constraints• entire or any subset of network• resolution of conflicts• captures dynamics of decision making• utilities’ specific planning objectives
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Adaptive Learning of the Prediction Models
• Learns from future data
•Adapts the probabilities and/or ranges
•Direct updating of the probabilities
• Indirect updating of the probabilities
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Risk Assessment and Quantification
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•Probability of corrosion leak, graphitization, break, and joint leak•Various levels of risk consequences for every
pipe segment in system• Seismic activity on pipe rupture and its
consequences as a result of• Surface faulting• Liquefaction• Landslides
Risk Assessment cont’d
•Probability of gas entering buildings is calculated thru various engineering and geotechnical models.
•All aspects of economical and public safety issues are quantified.
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Tubis Considers the Risks of:
• Effect of seismic activity on pipe rupture• Surface faulting• Liquefaction• Landsliding•Cast iron breaks•Cast iron joint leaks• Steel corrosion leaks•Plastic slow growth failure•Plastic breaks•Plastic joint leaks
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Regulatory Evaluation and Acceptance
Tubis has been approved by:
•New York State Public Service Commission
•California Public Utilities Commission
•National Transportation Safety Board
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Optimal Segmental Policy Model
• Quantifies risks and other factors in economic terms• Detailed replacement cost calculations• Sophisticated multi-period optimization model• Defensible replacement priority ranking
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Network Risk Evaluation
•Ranks all segments by risk• For any budget finds optimal set of pipes to be
replaced•Can accept budgets as constraints by• material network• geographical divisions• administrative divisions
•Can accept minimum replacement lengths as constraints
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The “Super Tubis”
Corporate-wide administrative, auditing and budget planning tool
•Optimal allocation of resources•Considers planning needs of each division in overall network decisions•Considers budget policies•Ties different regional TUBIS and related systems•Possibility of expansion to transmission and service lines
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Benefits
•Provides least cost maintenance strategy, saves money and reduces risk
•Comprehensive
• Flexible, answers “what if” questions
•Addresses uncertain nature of pipeline risk and maintenance management
• Ties in different planning and budgetary policies
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Who contributed to Tubis?
•Dr. Kamal Golabi, Principal Investigator Operations Research-modeling and optimization models (Optima)
•Dr. Chi-Hyuck Jun, Operations Research predictive models (Optima)
•Dr. James McNab, Corrosion Engineering corrosion models (Exponent)
•Dr. Rose Ray, Statistics (Exponent)
•Dr. Shirley Nozaki, Data base (Consultant)
•Dr. Aldo Moezzi, Data base (Optima)
•Dr. Michael Gordon, learning systems (Optima)Data analysis and statistical models
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Contribution (continued)
• Jose Wong, statistical analysis (Optima)
•Michael Clements, programming (Optima)
• Sergio Beider, system design and programming (Optima)
•Yan Kitsis, system design and programming (Optima)
•Anil Garg, system design and programming (Optima)
•Dr. Li-Hui Tsai, Learning systems (Optima and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory)
•Dr. Woody Savage, (PG&E) Seismic Models
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