Post on 16-Jan-2016
transcript
The Use of EMME/2 by Transek –an Overview
“Fantasy and imagination is the limit”
by
Göran Tegnér
Transek Consultants, Solna, Sweden
Presentation for the 19th International EMME/2 Users’ Conference in Seattle, 19-21 October
2005
Contents
115 EMME/2 installations in Scandinavia
Some National & Regional Applications
An international application:
The Yerevan Strategic Transport Model
Three recent Domestic Applications:
The Stockholm Congestion Charge Trials
The PRT Test Site at Kings’ Curve
The Vulnerability Project
More than 100 EMME/2 installations
in Scandinavia
The first Emme/2 installation in Europe Stockholm County Council Traffic Office 1984
EMME/2- the Standard Tool for Regional Planning
The Planned Bottleneck “Klarastrandsleden” => the very first EMME/2 application
• A then new central North-South By-pass: 2+2 or 1+1 lane
• Environmental reasons => 1+1 lane• The 1st EMME/2 study => substantial diversion to
inner city streets:• In reality this turned out to be the case
EMME/2 Sales in Scandinavia 1984-2005-by Customer Cathegory
Private Consultant
24%
Municipal & Regional planning agency
24%
State Authority32%
University12%
Transport Company
8%
In all: 115 installationsIn all: 115 installations
EMME/2 and Swedish State Railways
EMME/2 –the planning tool that brought together various skills
Traditional use of EMME/2 – network assignment of rail trips
A new application: Assignment of Revenues: ”Swedish Crowns” by Railway Line
EMME/2 and High Speed Rail Project Evaluations
EMME/2 has been used in the following High Speed And Regional Rail Projects in Sweden =>
The X 2000 Tilted Train Services
The ”Atlantic Line”
The ”East Coast Line”
The ”Norrbotnia Line”
The Svealandsbanan” Rail Line
SAMPERS & EMME/2 was used to do a backcasting to 1987
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Actual Rail trips
1987 elasticity model
Sampers – elasticity model
Sampers – complete network model
Index, 1987 = 100
Back casting: the East Coast High Speed Rail LineBackcasted train
trips=> 1 % differ-ence to 1987 reality
The elasticity & Sampers models underestimated train trips in 2000 => Comfort & convenience factors not included
The Öresund Road & Rail Bridge between Sweden & Denmark
Many choices =>
2 Sea Crossings (Helsingborg-Helsingör or Malmö-Copenhagen, ie Northern or Southern Strait of Öresund)
Frequency & Destination choices
Mode (Ferry, Car, Train, Bus) & Route Choice
High Quality Forecasts with EMME/2 for the Öresund Bridge - 11 Price
scenarios
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Transek -91(S5) ÖK May -99 Actual (AADT)
Trucks & Buses
Privata cars
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
Transek -91(S5) Tetraplan -97 Actual flows
<= Transek Forecasts for Road Traffic => better than other ones
<= Transek Forecasts for Road Traffic => better than other ones
Transek Forecasts for Rail =>Traffic => better than other ones
Transek Forecasts for Rail =>Traffic => better than other ones
EMME/2: part of the winning concept in an International
Competition
SIKA –Swedish Institute for Transport and Communication Analysis
True International Competition => A new generation of Forecasting tools
Demand models for Regional/Urban, National and International trips
Assignment Models: EMME/2, TRIPS, VISUM
EMME/2 including the Time Table Assignment won the bid!
The Yerevan (Armenia) Strategic Transport Model
Base Network :
114 zones;
355 nodes,
1 336 one way links,
159 transit lines, of which
• 116 minibus lines• 31 bus lines• 2 metro lines• 8 trolley bus lines
Methods used:
Base network
Travel Survey
A Demand Frequency, Destination & Mode choice model coded as a Macro into EMME/2
Calibration against roadside traffic counts (cars) & On-board surveys (transit)
The Model work revealed a 30 % overestimation of the total population
The Model work revealed a 30 % overestimation of the total population
Transit flows in Yeravan
Car traffic flows in Yerevan
Scenarios for Transport Planning1. Base network 2002 with Actual vs.
Normal operation parameters
2. Year 2012 network with road network development and slightly higher fares (20%)
3. Year 2012 network with trams & trolleys replaced by buses and slightly higher fares (20%)
4. Year 2012 network without metro
5. Year 2012 network with slightly higher fares for the metro, double fare for the minibuses and with parking fees
Major Results - Yerevan Scenarios
0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000
car
pt
walk
Sum
The Stockholm Congestion Charge Trials
Goals=> Reduce car traffic by 10%-15 % on major
arterials
Improve the environment
Measures: 22nd August 2005: 5 % extended Transit
services (Direct Express buses to the CBD)
Congestion charges Trial 3rd-Jan to 31st July 2006.
A local referendum
The Charging Area of Stockholm:”Inner City” 06.30-06.59: 1,33 $
07.00-07.29: 2,00 $07.30-08.29: 2,67 $08.30-08-59: 2,00 $09.00-15.29: 1,33 $
15.30-15.59: 2,00 $16.00-17.29: 2,67 $17.30-17.59: 2,00 $18.00-18,29: 1,33 $18.30-06.29: 0 $
Changes of auto volumes on road network due to the congestion charges system (thousand of
vehicles average week day)
-17,9
-15.6 -17.9 +17.2
+16.7
-3.9 -4.8
-17,9
-15.6 -17.9 +17.2
+16.7
-3.9 -4.8
Stockholmcity center
Estimated Impacts of the Stockholm Congestion Pricing
SchemePer cent changes in traffic flows
+20%
+ 10%
0
-10%
-20%
-30%
Västerbron N -38%Centralbron N -15%Stadsgårdsleden V -47%Söderledstunneln N -26%Klarastrandsleden N -33%
Gröndalsbron N 8%
E4 Haga N -8%Roslagsvägen -24%Tranebergsbron -3%Värmdöleden -8%Nynäsvägen -9%Huddingevägen -7%E4/E20 Västertorp -6%
Personal Rapid Transit- a cost-effective, sustainable and
innovative transport system
Time for a Better System: PRT is an Innovative Transport System
Driverless vehicles waiting for you
No waiting, direct to destination
Travel in privacy and station on side-tracks
Investment 30 % of light rail
Service level of taxi
Operation cheaper than bus
Driverless vehicles waiting for you
No waiting, direct to destination
Travel in privacy and station on side-tracks
Investment 30 % of light rail
Service level of taxi
Operation cheaper than bus
Kungens Kurva Shopping Centre
Scandinavia’s largest Commercial Centre
4,500 employed
42,000 daily visitors today
63,500 projected visitors in 2015
23,000 cars per peak day
3,000 cars at peak hour
Scandinavia’s largest Commercial Centre
4,500 employed
42,000 daily visitors today
63,500 projected visitors in 2015
23,000 cars per peak day
3,000 cars at peak hour
Kungens Kurva
A PRT net for Kungens Kurva-Skärholmen
Phase 0: 1 loop: 3 km;5 stations; 8 vehicles;
Phase 1: 2 loops: 5,5 km; 11 stations: 45 vehicles
Phase 2: 3 loops: 8,3 km; 15 stations; 85 vehicles
Phase 0: 1 loop: 3 km;5 stations; 8 vehicles;
Phase 1: 2 loops: 5,5 km; 11 stations: 45 vehicles
Phase 2: 3 loops: 8,3 km; 15 stations; 85 vehicles
3-4 Times Higher Mode Share with PRT
Today; 5,6%
Today with PRT;
15%
In 2015 with PRT;
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Transit Mode Share
PRT Cheaper than LRT & BusInvestment and O&M Cost per passenger
0 €
1 €
2 €
3 €
4 €
5 €
6 €
7 €
8 €
9 €
10 €
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
Pass/day
PRT
Bus
LRT
Metro & Rail
Network Impacts of PRT at King’s Curve
<= Yellow New PRT trips; Red=Reduced Bus trips; Green= increased Metro trips
<= Yellow New PRT trips; Red=Reduced Bus trips; Green= increased Metro trips
Red= reduced Car traffic2 remote parking-houses at the N & S entrances=> transfer from car to PRT =>
Red= reduced Car traffic2 remote parking-houses at the N & S entrances=> transfer from car to PRT =>
Regional accessibility from a Vulnerability Persective - A Road
Administration project
Aim of the project: to identify the most ”critical links”.
The chosen method was the following one:
Step 1 Calculate the total travel in the entire network with EMME/2
Step 2 Cut off one link at each step and calculate the total travel time loss in the network
Step 3 Search the link that produces the highest loss in total travel time. This is the “critical link”.
Selected Links
KINDA
VÄSTERVIK
VETLANDA
LINKÖPING
YDRE
EKSJÖ
JÖNKÖPING
NÄSSJÖ
VIMMERBY
MOTALA
NORRKÖPING
HULTSFRED
FALKÖPING
SÄVSJÖ
ULRICEHAMN
ANEBY
SKÖVDE
TRANEMO
GISLAVED
VAGGERYD
HJO
OSKARSHAMN
MJÖLBY
VARA
SKARA
HABO
BOXHOLM
ÅTVIDABERG
TRANÅS
VÄRNAMO
GNOSJÖ
TIDAHOLM
VALDEMARSVIK
GÖTENE
ÖDESHÖG
SÖDERKÖPING
TIBROLIDKÖPING
KARLSBORGTÖREBODA
FINSPÅNG NYKÖPING
MARIESTAD
HÖGSBY
VADSTENA
SVENLJUNGA
BORÅS
HERRLJUNGA
MULLSJÖ
BORGHOLM
VÄXJÖ UPPVIDINGE
LAXÅ
MÖNSTERÅS
OXELÖSUNDASKERSUND
ASKERSUND
A Truck Link
A Bus link
A private car link
Number of Work-places within 45 minutes
- a normal situation
KINDA
VÄSTERVIK
VETLANDA
LINKÖPING
YDRE
EKSJÖ
JÖNKÖPING
NÄSSJÖ
VIMMERBY
MOTALA
NORRKÖPING
HULTSFRED
FALKÖPING
SÄVSJÖ
ULRICEHAMN
ANEBY
SKÖVDE
TRANEMO
GISLAVED
VAGGERYD
HJO
OSKARSHAMN
MJÖLBY
VARA
SKARA
HABO
BOXHOLM
ÅTVIDABERG
TRANÅS
VÄRNAMO
GNOSJÖ
TIDAHOLM
VALDEMARSVIK
GÖTENE
ÖDESHÖG
SÖDERKÖPING
TIBROLIDKÖPING
KARLSBORGTÖREBODA
FINSPÅNG NYKÖPING
MARIESTAD
HÖGSBY
VADSTENA
SVENLJUNGA
BORÅS
HERRLJUNGA
MULLSJÖ
BORGHOLM
VÄXJÖ UPPVIDINGE
LAXÅ
MÖNSTERÅS
OXELÖSUNDASKERSUND
ASKERSUND
CNkommun
Open
3 400 - 30 000
30 000 - 50 000
50 000 - 80 000
80 000 - 120 000
120 000 - 188 800
Difference in accessibility with a closed link
- number of workplaces within 45 minutes
KINDA
VÄSTERVIK
VETLANDA
LINKÖPING
YDRE
EKSJÖ
JÖNKÖPING
NÄSSJÖ
VIMMERBY
MOTALA
NORRKÖPING
HULTSFRED
FALKÖPING
SÄVSJÖ
ULRICEHAMN
ANEBY
SKÖVDE
TRANEMO
GISLAVED
VAGGERYD
HJO
OSKARSHAMN
MJÖLBY
VARA
SKARA
HABO
BOXHOLM
ÅTVIDABERG
TRANÅS
VÄRNAMO
GNOSJÖ
TIDAHOLM
VALDEMARSVIK
GÖTENE
ÖDESHÖG
SÖDERKÖPING
TIBROLIDKÖPING
KARLSBORGTÖREBODA
FINSPÅNG NYKÖPING
MARIESTAD
HÖGSBY
VADSTENA
SVENLJUNGA
BORÅS
HERRLJUNGA
MULLSJÖ
BORGHOLM
VÄXJÖ UPPVIDINGE
LAXÅ
MÖNSTERÅS
OXELÖSUNDASKERSUND
ASKERSUND
CNkommun
Diff
-13 421 - -10 000
-9 999 - -8 000
-7 999 - -5 000
-4 999 - -3 000
-2 999 - -1
The most Critical Links in SE Road Region
Passenger car traffic
Passenger car traffic
Heavy truck trafiic
Heavy truck trafiic
”Fantasy and imagination is the limit”
I hope this presentation has showed a broad variety of (more or less… depending on who you are) successful but different EMME/2 Applications…
Many thanks for your attention!
//Göran Tegnér