Post on 24-Dec-2014
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ThinkSmallCell Webinar Series Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
David Chambers Founder and Senior Analyst ThinkSmallCell
Caroline Gabriel Head of Research Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe Madden Founder and Principal Analyst Mobile Experts
Agenda
• IntroducHon, David Chambers, ThinkSmallCell
• Analyst Forecasts and AssumpHons • Caroline Gabriel, Maravedis-‐Rethink • Joe Madden, Mobile Experts
• QuesHon and Answer Session
• Conclusion
Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
3
The different categories of small cells
Enterprise Residen,al Urban Rural
Small Cells
Small Cells Femtocells OR
4
3G Licensed Spectrum
4G/LTE Licensed Spectrum
Unlicensed Spectrum
Planned (locaHon pre-‐determined prior to site build)
Unplanned (locaHon unknown unHl operaHonal)
Planned vs Unplanned
Carrier Wi-‐Fi
Enterprise Wi-‐Fi
ResidenHal Wi-‐Fi
LTE Urban
Enterprise Small Cells
ResidenHal Small Cells
3G Rural Small cells
3G Urban
LTE Rural Small cells
ResidenHal Small Cells
Enterprise Small Cells
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Issues with small cell forecasts? • Contrast between residenHal femto vs planned Small Cells
– Tens of millions of residenHal femtocells vs few million Small Cells
• It’s always “next year”? – How confident can we be that Small Cell uptake isn’t a false dawn?
• Volume vs revenue? – Which sector of Small Cells has most revenue associated with it
• What impact will Carrier Wi-‐Fi have?
• How do Small Cell forecasts differ between radio technologies? – 3G UMTS, 3G CDMA, 4G/LTE, TD-‐LTE, MulH-‐Mode 3G/LTE/Wi-‐Fi
Analyst Viewpoint Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
David Chambers Founder and Senior Analyst ThinkSmallCell
Caroline Gabriel Head of Research Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe Madden Founder and Principal Analyst Mobile Experts
Public access small cells forecast
January 2014
Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2014. www.maravedis-‐bwa.com
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Units Shipp
ed ann
ually
Outdoor Indoor
Trends and drivers
January 2014
Copyright © Maravedis Inc 2014.
www.maravedis-‐bwa.com
Changing focus: Indoor Wi-‐Fi integraHon Managed services Enterprise Added value services
• MulHmode and new ecosystem are criHcal • SHll obstacles but they are changing
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
No of sites
Cellular only Dual-‐mode cellular WiFi/cellular WiFi only
Analyst Viewpoint Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
David Chambers Founder and Senior Analyst ThinkSmallCell
Caroline Gabriel Head of Research Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe Madden Founder and Principal Analyst Mobile Experts
Mobile Experts LLC § Founded in 2002 § 6 Analysts + office staff § Analysts are 20-‐year experts in their respective topics § Focused exclusively on mobile radio equipment
Small Cell Forecast
§ Residential Femtocells—not a compelling ROI for operators § Enterprise Small Cells will grow with new business models
§ Big potential but slow growth due to a new business model
§ Carrier-‐deployed Small Cells will grow along with data demand
Annu
al
Methodology § Top-‐down inputs:
§ 32 mobile operators § Deployment history and plans
§ Bottom-‐up inputs: § 18 semiconductor suppliers § Quarterly shipment updates § Tracking by band, by power
level
§ Cost Modeling: § We compare TCO models with
operators on $/bit to understand their deployment priorities
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How closely do these analyst forecast match your own predicHons?
1) Analysts are too opHmisHc/too high 2) About right 3) Analysts are too pessimisHc 4) I have absolutely no idea 5) Too many uncertainHes to predict with any confidence
Audience Poll -‐ QuesHon
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Audience Poll -‐ Response
Q&A Session Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
David Chambers Founder and Senior Analyst ThinkSmallCell
Caroline Gabriel Head of Research Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe Madden Founder and Principal Analyst Mobile Experts
Closing Comments Small Cell Analyst Forecast Spotlight
David Chambers Founder and Senior Analyst ThinkSmallCell
Caroline Gabriel Head of Research Maravedis-‐Rethink
Joe Madden Founder and Principal Analyst Mobile Experts
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• More resources/informaHon at ThinkSmallCell.com – Sign up for our free monthly newsleeer – www.thinksmallcell.com/webinars
• Small Cell Forum documents – scf.io
• Contact today’s analysts – ThinkSmallCell: www.thinksmallcell.com – Mobile Experts: www.mobile-‐experts.net – Maravedis-‐Rethink: www.maravedis-‐rethink.com
More informaHon
Our Next Webinar
Small Cells: Going to Volume • Speakers include
– Nick Johnson, Founder and CTO, ip.access – Simon Brown, CEO, ip.access
• Thursday 13th February 2014 – 8am PST/11am EST/4pm GMT/5pm CET
• heps://aeendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1481253624939123458