Tilting at Windmills: Intrapreneurship in large organizations from Lean UX NYC 2014

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How to innovate in large organizations with a three-maxima model of management. Looks at Lean Startup and other business models (Innovator's Dilemma, Three Horizons) and why large organizations resist change. Considers the impact of technology that makes small batches possible, and why this in turn makes experimentation easier, shifting the key competitive advantage from scale to cycle time. Presented on April 10 at Lean UX NYC

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Tilting at Windmills

Innovation in large organizations.

Photo by Echiner on Flickr. Used under a creative commons license. https://www.flickr.com/photos/decadence/249922560

Thursday, April 10, 14

Back in 2008.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Today.

Thursday, April 10, 14

That escalated quickly.

Thursday, April 10, 14

When you’re a startupyour goal is to find a sustainable,

repeatable business model.

Thursday, April 10, 14

When you’re a big company, your goal is to perpetuate one.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Instead of:Companies are what they repeatedly do.

Thursday, April 10, 14

How about:Organizations that do things repeatedly

are companies.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Once, this was all about scale.

Thursday, April 10, 14

How to perpetuate something.

Photo by Kamal Hamid. Used under a creative commons license. https://www.flickr.com/photos/evergreenkamal/395448039Thursday, April 10, 14

Daniel Craig McCallum.

Thursday, April 10, 14

How’s that working out for you?

Thursday, April 10, 14

F500 lifespan history

Thursday, April 10, 14

Fortune 500Life Expectancy(http://csinvesting.org/2012/01/06/fortune-500-extinction/)

1950 2010...

75years

15years

Thursday, April 10, 14

Fortune 500Life Expectancy(http://csinvesting.org/2012/01/06/fortune-500-extinction/)

1950 2010...

75years

15years

Growth by entering a new business

Corporate Strategy Board

95% fail

99% fail

Clay Christensen

Thursday, April 10, 14

The innovation problem isn’t new.

Picture by James Whatley on Flickr. Used under a Creative Commons license.https://www.flickr.com/photos/whatleydude/6202872135Thursday, April 10, 14

Companies die because they fail to move to new business models.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Clay Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma

Cost

per

MB

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

The Innovator’s Dilemma

Thursday, April 10, 14

Clay Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma

Cost

per

MB

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

14”

Mainframe

The Innovator’s Dilemma

Thursday, April 10, 14

Clay Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma

Cost

per

MB

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

14”

Mainframe

8”

Minicomputer

The Innovator’s Dilemma

Thursday, April 10, 14

Clay Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma

Cost

per

MB

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

14”

Mainframe

8”

Minicomputer

5.25”

Desktop

The Innovator’s Dilemma

Thursday, April 10, 14

Clay Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma

Cost

per

MB

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

14”

Mainframe

8”

Minicomputer

5.25”

Desktop

3.5”

Notebook

The Innovator’s Dilemma

Thursday, April 10, 14

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

8” 5.25”

Technologies outstrip what the market needs, driven by feedback from the “best” current customer.

Thursday, April 10, 14

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

8” 5.25”

Technologies outstrip what the market needs, driven by feedback from the “best” current customer.

High end

customer

Thursday, April 10, 14

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

8” 5.25”

Technologies outstrip what the market needs, driven by feedback from the “best” current customer.

High end

customer Low end

customer

Thursday, April 10, 14

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

8” 5.25”

The new market has different criteria for success, which are uninteresting to incumbents.

Thursday, April 10, 14

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

8” 5.25”

The new market has different criteria for success, which are uninteresting to incumbents.

Storagecapacity

Thursday, April 10, 14

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

8” 5.25”

The new market has different criteria for success, which are uninteresting to incumbents.

Storagecapacity

Portability

Thursday, April 10, 14

Amazon Web Services and the server value network

Server computing

• Density• Heat

• GHz• MIPS

Capex, financing, TCO, ROICIO, enterprise IT

Valuecriteria

Money

Buyer

Thursday, April 10, 14

Amazon Web Services and the server value network

Server computing

• Density• Heat

• GHz• MIPS

Capex, financing, TCO, ROICIO, enterprise IT

Valuecriteria

Money

Buyer

Cloud computing

• Instances• Objects

• Spinup time• Scaleout

Opex, demand, time to resultCTO, coder, app owner, line of business, startup

Thursday, April 10, 14

HP and Dell missed the disruption and the change in the value network.

$1000

$100

$10

$1

TimeThursday, April 10, 14

HP and Dell missed the disruption and the change in the value network.

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

Physical servers:MIPS, heat, density, cost per cycle.

Sold to CIOs

Thursday, April 10, 14

HP and Dell missed the disruption and the change in the value network.

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

Physical servers:MIPS, heat, density, cost per cycle.

Sold to CIOs Cloud computing:Opex cost, time to spin up, scaleout, objects stored.

Sold to developers, marketers, startups

Thursday, April 10, 14

HP and Dell missed the disruption and the change in the value network.

$1000

$100

$10

$1

Time

Elastic resources mean we can scale up to huge, and shrink costs when not in use.

Thursday, April 10, 14

YOU ARE HERE

This is a problem of local maxima.

Thursday, April 10, 14

YOU ARE HERE

LOCALMAXIMUM

OPTIMIZATIONOF CURRENT

METRICS

Thursday, April 10, 14

YOU ARE HERE

GLOBALMAXIMUMINNOVATION

WITH NEWRULES

Thursday, April 10, 14

YOU ARE HERE

SHORT-TERMINVESTORSHATE GOINGDOWNHILL

Thursday, April 10, 14

By trying to innovate in a big organization, you are going against

its mandate to perpetuate an existing business model.

Thursday, April 10, 14

You are a pariah.

Thursday, April 10, 14

You are a pariah.

Bad listener: Wilfully ignore feedback from your best customers.

Thursday, April 10, 14

You are a pariah.

Bad listener: Wilfully ignore feedback from your best customers.

Cannibal: If successful, destroying existing revenue streams.

Thursday, April 10, 14

You are a pariah.

Bad listener: Wilfully ignore feedback from your best customers.

Cannibal: If successful, destroying existing revenue streams.

Job killer: Automation & lower margins are your favorite tools.

Thursday, April 10, 14

You are a pariah.

Bad listener: Wilfully ignore feedback from your best customers.

Cannibal: If successful, destroying existing revenue streams.

Job killer: Automation & lower margins are your favorite tools.

Security risk: Advocate of transparency, open data, communities.

Thursday, April 10, 14

You are a pariah.

Bad listener: Wilfully ignore feedback from your best customers.

Cannibal: If successful, destroying existing revenue streams.

Job killer: Automation & lower margins are your favorite tools.

Security risk: Advocate of transparency, open data, communities.

Narcissist: Worry constantly about how you’ll get attention.

Thursday, April 10, 14

You are a pariah.

Bad listener: Wilfully ignore feedback from your best customers.

Cannibal: If successful, destroying existing revenue streams.

Job killer: Automation & lower margins are your favorite tools.

Security risk: Advocate of transparency, open data, communities.

Narcissist: Worry constantly about how you’ll get attention.

Slum lord: Sell to those with less money, deviants, and weirdos.

Thursday, April 10, 14

But there’s hope.Photo by Tom Grydeland on Flickr. Used under a creative commons license. https://www.flickr.com/photos/thunderchild5/225675725Thursday, April 10, 14

Small batches change everything.

Thursday, April 10, 14

3D printing.

Photo by Keith Kissel on Flickr. Used under a creative commons license. https://www.flickr.com/photos/kakissel/6165114664Thursday, April 10, 14

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Cloud computing and shared services.Thursday, April 10, 14

Social platforms.

Photo by Michael-Davis Burchat on Flickr. Used under a creative commons license. https://www.flickr.com/photos/curious_e/10473440064Thursday, April 10, 14

Crowdfunding.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Digitalchannels.

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Thursday, April 10, 14

What happenswhen the prototype costswhat the product does?

Thursday, April 10, 14

Iteration wins.

Thursday, April 10, 14

In a small-batch, digital-channel world, cycle time trumps scale.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Ultimately, successful businesses must become organisms designed

to learn.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Three kinds of innovation

Thursday, April 10, 14

Three kinds of innovation

Sustain/core(optimizing for more of the

same)Thursday, April 10, 14

Three kinds of innovation

Sustain/core(optimizing for more of the

same)

Improve alongcurrent metrics...

Thursday, April 10, 14

Three kinds of innovation

Sustain/core(optimizing for more of the

same)

Improve alongcurrent metrics...

...or alterthe rate of improvement

Thursday, April 10, 14

Three kinds of innovation

Sustain/core(optimizing for more of the

same)

Innovate/adjacent(introduce nearby product,

market, or method)

Improve alongcurrent metrics...

...or alterthe rate of improvement

Thursday, April 10, 14

Three kinds of innovation

Sustain/core(optimizing for more of the

same)

Innovate/adjacent(introduce nearby product,

market, or method)

Improve alongcurrent metrics...

...or alterthe rate of improvement

Switch to a newvalue model

Thursday, April 10, 14

Three kinds of innovation

Sustain/core(optimizing for more of the

same)

Innovate/adjacent(introduce nearby product,

market, or method)

Disrupt/transform(Fundamentally reframing

the business model & value)

Improve alongcurrent metrics...

...or alterthe rate of improvement

Switch to a newvalue model

Thursday, April 10, 14

Three kinds of innovation

Sustain/core(optimizing for more of the

same)

Innovate/adjacent(introduce nearby product,

market, or method)

Disrupt/transform(Fundamentally reframing

the business model & value)

Improve alongcurrent metrics...

...or alterthe rate of improvement

Switch to a newvalue model

Change the businessmodel entirely

Thursday, April 10, 14

A three-maxima approach

See also: Three horizons model, Geoffrey Moore, etc.Thursday, April 10, 14

Currentstate

A three-maxima approach

See also: Three horizons model, Geoffrey Moore, etc.Thursday, April 10, 14

Currentstate

Business optimization

A three-maxima approach

See also: Three horizons model, Geoffrey Moore, etc.Thursday, April 10, 14

Currentstate

Business optimization

Product,market,method

innovation

A three-maxima approach

See also: Three horizons model, Geoffrey Moore, etc.Thursday, April 10, 14

Currentstate

Business optimization

Product,market,method

innovation

Business model innovationA three-maxima approach

See also: Three horizons model, Geoffrey Moore, etc.Thursday, April 10, 14

Currentstate

Business optimization

Product,market,method

innovation

Business model innovation

You can convince execs of this because it’s somewhat familiar.

A three-maxima approach

See also: Three horizons model, Geoffrey Moore, etc.Thursday, April 10, 14

Currentstate

Business optimization

Product,market,method

innovation

Business model innovation

You can convince execs of this because it’s somewhat familiar.

This terrifies them because it eats their

young.

A three-maxima approach

See also: Three horizons model, Geoffrey Moore, etc.Thursday, April 10, 14

Good Intrapreneurs embrace the harsh light of data.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Thursday, April 10, 14

Thursday, April 10, 14

Times a song in “heavy rotation” is played daily

2007 20120

15

30

EVERY 4h EVERY 55m

Thursday, April 10, 14

Times a song in “heavy rotation” is played daily

2007 20120

15

30

EVERY 4h EVERY 55m

Thursday, April 10, 14

Times a song in “heavy rotation” is played daily

2007 20120

15

30

EVERY 4h EVERY 55m

Thursday, April 10, 14

Good Intrapreneurs take baby steps.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Tesla

http://www.hdwallpapersinn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/600-tesla.jpgThursday, April 10, 14

Twitter’s 140-character limit isn’t arbitrary.

It’s constrained by the size of SMS (160 characters) and username (20

characters.)

http://i.i.cbsi.com/cnwk.1d/i/tim/2011/11/18/sms_screen_twitter_activity_stream_270x405.png

Thursday, April 10, 14

Good Intrapreneurs reframe.

Thursday, April 10, 14

http://www.flickr.com/photos/maladjusted/5207565912 Thursday, April 10, 14

Blockbuster had a lot going for it.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Plenty of inventory, of course. But that matters less than...

Thursday, April 10, 14

...market intelligence, customers,

existing payment approval, and

customer history.

Thursday, April 10, 14

The problem was framing:

Blockbuster thought it was in the video store management business.

Netflix realized it was in the entertainment delivery business.

Thursday, April 10, 14

Thursday, April 10, 14

Good Intrapreneurs are subversive.

Thursday, April 10, 14

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bootbearwdc/1243690099/Thursday, April 10, 14

Ultimately, good Intrapreneurs know cycle time trumps scale.

Thursday, April 10, 14

www.tiltthewindmill.comAlistair Crollacroll@gmail.com@acroll

Windmill by Eric Bennett on Flickr. Used under a Creative Commons license.

Thanks!

Thursday, April 10, 14