Growing smarterAn approach to intelligent spatial

planning using the evidence

How should Norfolk grow?

Norwich, 20th November 2015

Tim Stonor

t.stonor@spacesyntax.com@Tim_Stonor

Space Syntax

Presence

Copresence

Communication

Interaction

Transaction

Introduction

Innovation

Broadcast

Underpinning policy with evidence

Short-term➔ 50 yearsThe right science

for emergenciesCurrent issues:

Well-being, health, security & resilience

e.g. Ebola e.g. Cybersecurity e.g. Future of Cities

Medium-term Long-term

Knowledge translated to economic advantageAdvocacy and leadership for science

Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser

Disconnected LayoutSpatial Accessibility Score = 35

Connected layoutSpatial Accessibility Score = 75

Disconnected Layout Connected Layout 　 Difference 　IRR 15% 18% 3%

NPV USD 1.1 billion USD 1.6 billion USD 0.5 billion

Real estate value analysis

Suppressed movement economy.

Enhanced movement economy.

Main street, mixing global & local movement.

Fast highways, separating global & local movement.

Urban challenge #1 Fast highways replacing main streets

Modelling the Spatial Layout Attraction

New Extension Area (NEA)CBD area

2,000

3,000

750

2,500

1,5001,000

500250

2,000

750

2,500

1,5001,000

500250

0

totototototototo

Unimproved Capital Value (UCV)$ per m²

above3,000 to

Existing land value

The Land value Model predicts a total land value for the CBD and the New Extension Area of more than 3.7 billion Australian dollars.

Forecasting land value

The Integrated Transport Network model examines the employment impacts of rail infrastructure improvement

“Peak Ring North” scenario “Peak Ring South” scenario

Note: model incorporates planned improvements under HS2/HS3

Model links rail and road

infrastructure to capture

integrated commuting time