C M Y K Nxxx,2020-03-22,A,001,Bs-4C,E2

The American economy is fac-ing a plunge into uncharted wa-ters.

Economists say there is littledoubt that the nation is headedinto a recession because of the co-ronavirus pandemic, with busi-nesses shutting down and Ameri-cans being shut in. But it is harderto foresee the bottom and howlong it will take to climb back.

Greg Daco, chief U.S. economistat Oxford Economics, says theeconomy is assured of a recession— at least two consecutive quar-ters of economic decline — withoutput falling 0.4 percent in thefirst quarter and 12 percent in thesecond. That would be the biggestquarterly contraction on record,but Goldman Sachs upped theante on Friday, saying it expecteda 24 percent drop in the secondquarter.

“This is not just a blip,” Mr. Dacosaid of the outlook. “We’ve neverexperienced something like this.”

The abruptness of the descent— and the near-lockdown of majorcities — is unheard-of in advancedeconomies, more akin to wartimeprivation than to the downturnthat accompanied the financialcrisis more than a decade ago, oreven the Great Depression.

“Even during previous reces-sions,” noted Ellen Zentner, chiefU.S. economist at Morgan Stanley,“no one’s been told you can’t gooutside or you can’t gather.”

Smaller companies will be hitharder than large ones because oftheir limited access to credit andless cash in the bank. “There willbe a swath of small businessesthat simply won’t be able to sur-vive this,” Ms. Zentner added.

The result is an economy thathas gone from full-speed-ahead inJanuary to a full-on freeze. Econo-

A Recession AppearsCertain as a Virus

Wreaks Havoc

By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ

Continued on Page 11

TRACKING AN OUTBREAK

In mid-January, a few weeks be-fore the Iowa caucuses, SenatorBernie Sanders’s pollster offereda stark prognosis for the cam-paign: Mr. Sanders was on trackto finish strong in the first threenominating states, but Joseph R.Biden Jr.’s powerful support fromolder African-Americans couldmake him a resilient foe in SouthCarolina and beyond.

The pollster, Ben Tulchin, in ameeting with campaign aides, rec-ommended a new offensive to in-fluence older black voters, accord-ing to three people briefed on hispresentation. The data showedtwo clear vulnerabilities for Mr.Biden: his past support for over-hauling Social Security, and hisauthorship of a punitive criminaljustice law in the 1990s.

But the suggestion met with re-sistance. Some senior advisers ar-gued that it wasn’t worth divert-ing resources from Iowa and NewHampshire, people familiar withthe campaign’s deliberations said.Others pressed Mr. Tulchin onwhat kind of message, exactly,would make voters rethink theirsupport for the most loyal ally ofthe first black president.

Crucially, both Mr. Sanders andhis wife, Jane, consistently ex-pressed reservations about goingnegative on Mr. Biden, preferringto stick with the left-wing policymessage they have been pressing

for 40 years.The warnings about Mr. Biden

proved prescient: Two months lat-er, Mr. Sanders is now all but van-quished in the Democratic presi-dential race, after Mr. Biden res-urrected his campaign in SouthCarolina and built an overwhelm-ing coalition of black voters andwhite moderates on Super Tues-day.

While Mr. Sanders has notended his bid, he has fallen far be-hind Mr. Biden in the delegatecount and has taken to trumpetinghis success in the battle of ideas

Mistakes and Internal StrifeHobbled Sanders Campaign

By ALEXANDER BURNSand JONATHAN MARTIN

Senator Bernie Sanders is farbehind in the delegate count.

ERIN SCHAFF/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Continued on Page 23

KIRKLAND, Wash. — LorettaRapp, 79, was easy to spot as shezipped through Life Care Centernursing home in her electricwheelchair, dressed in one of herbright muumuus.

It had been hard for her to leaveher apartment after she had a badfall last year. But she was a no-nonsense woman who had raisedthree children, and she was trying

to make the best of things. Shewent to physical therapy. She de-voured detective novels. At theskilled-nursing facility tuckednext to a row of Douglas firs insuburban Seattle, she was electedpresident of the residents’ council.

Life Care made an effort to keepthings fun. There were shoppingexcursions to the Fred Meyer andlunch trips to Olive Garden, a re-cent afternoon with “cute and cud-dly animals.” The Honky TonkSweethearts, a country group,came in for a show early in Febru-

ary. Ms. Rapp spent her daysbuzzing the hallways, visitingnewcomers and cheering up bed-bound friends.

Then people started gettingsick.

Not sick as what happens all thetime in a nursing home, the badflus and septic infections and oldbones that will not heal. This wasdifferent. In the last few days ofFebruary, people’s temperaturesstarted going off the charts. Somecould not breathe. Then came

The Rapid Road From Fevers to Final GoodbyesBy JACK HEALY

and SERGE F. KOVALESKI

At Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash., 35 people who tested positive for the coronavirus died.GRANT HINDSLEY FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Continued on Page 14

ROME — As Italy’s coronavirusinfections ticked above 400 casesand deaths hit the double digits,the leader of the governing Demo-cratic Party posted a picture ofhimself clinking glasses for “anaperitivo in Milan,” urging people“not to change our habits.”

That was on Feb. 27. Not 10 dayslater, as the toll hit 5,883 infectionsand 233 dead, the party boss,Nicola Zingaretti, posted a newvideo, this time informing Italythat he, too, had the virus.

Italy now has more than 53,000recorded infections and more than4,800 dead, and the rate of in-crease keeps growing, with morethan half the cases and fatalitiescoming in the past week. On Sat-urday, officials reported 793 addi-tional deaths, by far the largestsingle-day increase so far. Italyhas surpassed China as the coun-try with the highest death toll, be-coming the epicenter of a shiftingpandemic.

The government has sent in thearmy to enforce the lockdown inLombardy, the northern region atthe center of the outbreak, wherebodies have piled up in churches.On Friday night, the authoritiestightened the nationwide lock-down, closing parks, banning out-door activities including walkingor jogging far from home.

On Saturday night, Prime Min-ister Giuseppe Conte announcedanother drastic step in responseto what he called the country’smost difficult crisis since the Sec-ond World War: Italy will close itsfactories and all production that isnot absolutely essential, an enor-mous economic sacrifice intendedto contain the virus and protectlives.

“The state is here,” he said in aneffort to reassure the public.

But the tragedy of Italy nowstands as a warning to its Euro-

Early MisstepsSet Italy’s PathTo Catastrophe

This article is by Jason Horowitz,Emma Bubolaand Elisabetta Povoledo.

Chairs are spaced far apart at Milan’s city hall, Palazzo Marino. Italy has overtaken China as the country with the highest death toll.ALESSANDRO GRASSANI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Continued on Page 8

WASHINGTON — During hiscampaign for the White House in2016, President Trump’s advisersbriefly tried to run through withhim how he would address a large-scale disaster if he won. What, forinstance, would he have done dur-ing Hurricane Katrina?

“I would have fixed that,” Mr.Trump replied with certitude, re-ferring to the government’s bun-gled rescue and recovery efforts,according to a campaign officialwho was present for the ex-change. “I would have come upwith a much better response.”How? He did not say. He just as-serted it would have been betterand advisers did not press him toelaborate.

Mr. Trump is no stranger to cri-sis. He has spent a lifetime grap-pling with bankruptcy, fending offcreditors, evading tax collectors,defending lawsuits, deflectingregulators, spinning reportersand dueling with estranged wives,usually coming out ahead, at leastas he defines it. But these were cri-ses of his own creation involvinghuman adversaries he knew howto confront. Nothing in his back-ground in business, entertain-ment or multiple marriages pre-pared him for the coronavirus

pandemic now threatening Amer-ica’s health and wealth.

Mr. Trump’s performance onthe national stage in recent weekshas put on display the traits thatDemocrats and some Republicansconsider so jarring — the pro-found need for personal praise,the propensity to blame others,the lack of human empathy, thepenchant for rewriting history, thedisregard for expertise, the distor-tion of facts, the impatience withscrutiny or criticism. For years,skeptics expressed concern abouthow he would handle a genuinecrisis, and now they know.

“When he’s faced a problem, hehas sought to somehow cheat orfix the outcome ahead of time sothat he could construct a narra-tive that showed him to be the win-ner,” said Michael D’Antonio, a

Trump Is Faced With Crisis Too Big for Big TalkBy PETER BAKER

and MAGGIE HABERMANA Lifetime of Conflict,

and Now an Unseen,Genuine Threat

Continued on Page 12

A Russian state company is buildingreactors across the world, reaping forMoscow profits and influence. PAGE 17

INTERNATIONAL 17-20

Nuclear Offer Hard to Refuse

President Trump’s top officials aredivided on whether to ramp up militaryaction in the region. PAGE 20

Conflicting Advice Over Iran

With too many animals on public lands,the federal wild horse program is shortof money or easy solutions. PAGE 21

NATIONAL 21-23

Mustangs Out of Control

A flu-ravaged nation managed to holdan election in 1918: not without incident,but with democracy intact. PAGE 22

Voting, Now? We Did It Before

When Gabriel Jiménez used his passionto build the Maduro regime a digitalcoin, called the Petro, he nearly paid forit with his life. PAGE 1

SUNDAY BUSINESS

Venezuelan Coder in Peril

The economy relies on thousands oflocal operations that need a lifeline,Sendhil Mullainathan writes. PAGE 8

Small Businesses Need Help

Maureen Dowd PAGE 9

SUNDAY REVIEW

Digital dance raves. Streaming sound-baths. Book readings by phone. Thehousebound are nimbly pivoting tovirtual social gatherings. PAGE 1

SUNDAY STYLES

Now on a Screen Near You

Venerable museums closed by thepandemic should seize the moment totake stock of themselves — and change,Holland Cotter writes. PAGE 12

ARTS & LEISURE

A Manifesto for Museums

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Husky-voiced Kenny Rogers, 81, soldmore than 100 million records. His hitsincluded “The Gambler,” “Lady” and“Islands in the Stream.” PAGE 25

OBITUARIES 25-27

Country Music Megastar

SPECIAL SECTION Here are an-swers to your basic questionsabout life under the coronavirus.

OLYMPICS Athletes are question-ing organizers’ insistence that theGames go on. SPORTSSUNDAY

A QUIET CITY New York becameeerily empty as restrictions in-creasingly took hold. PAGE 6

President Trump on Saturdaysought to assure an anxiousAmerican public that help was onthe way to overwhelmed hospi-tals, and that private companieshad agreed to provide desperatelyneeded medical supplies to fightthe fast-spreading coronavirus.

But Mr. Trump resisted appealsfrom state and local officials andhospital administrators for moreaggressive action, saying hewould not compel companies tomake face masks and other gearto protect front-line health work-ers from the virus.

Speaking at a White Housebriefing with Mr. Trump, VicePresident Mike Pence said thefederal government had placedorders for “hundreds of millions”of the N-95 face masks that canshield medical workers from thevirus. Mr. Trump said the clothingcompany Hanes was among thosethat had been enlisted to startchurning out masks, although thecompany said they would not bethe N-95 masks that are most ef-fective in protecting medicalworkers.

Neither Mr. Trump nor Mr.Pence would say when the maskswould be ready. And it is unclearwhether enough new masks andother protective gear will be avail-able before health care facilitiesstart getting overwhelmed by aflood of infected patients. Morethan 21,000 cases of the coro-navirus have been confirmed inthe United States, and that num-ber is expected to soar in comingweeks.

As more of the nation goes intoan unprecedented lockdown —businesses shuttered, one in four

A RACE TO DELIVER CRITICAL SUPPLIESTO MEDICAL TEAMS

Trump Resists Use of War Act to Compel Companies’ Help

This article is by Rachel Abrams,Jessica Silver-Greenberg, AndrewJacobs, Vanessa Friedman and Mi-chael Rothfeld.

Continued on Page 15

THE MAGAZINE Senator Sandersremained steadfast in his vision,and forced a party’s reckoning.

From the elegantly austere to the joy-fully overstuffed, the Design Issue looksat spaces that play with adding andtaking away volume.

T MAGAZINE

Space, Form, Line

Thomas Mallon reviews “The Mirrorand the Light,” the final book in a seriesthat began with “Wolf Hall.” PAGE 1

BOOK REVIEW

Hilary Mantel Is Back

Late Edition

VOL. CLXIX . . . No. 58,640 © 2020 The New York Times Company NEW YORK, SUNDAY, MARCH 22, 2020

Today, sunshine and patchy clouds,a chilly day, high 46. Tonight, partlycloudy, low 36. Tomorrow, consider-able amounts of clouds, rain, high44. Weather map is on Page 24.

$6.00