Post on 15-Jun-2020
transcript
Towards Foresight 3.0 – The HCSS Metafore Approach A Multilingual Approach for Exploring Global Foresights
Presentation at the Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Conference 2014 – Panel Session 9– Big Data European Commission, Charlemagne building, Brussels, November 27-28, 2014
o Stephan De Spiegeleire, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
o Freija van Duijne, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
o Eline Chivot, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Foresight 1.0
Prima Donna
Foresight 3.0
Mapping visions
Foresight 2.0
Connecting people /
Networks of (remarkable) people
complex problems
ingest digest egest
selection based on
expert judgment
manual coding
by еxperts
1 2 3 4 5
Actors Blocs of States Pairs of States State and non-state vs. non-state State vs. non-state Non-state vs. non-state ActorsAim Physical degradation Obtain/retain/occupy Political/economic degradation Political/economic degradation Stabilize AimDefinition War Militarized interstate disputes Tensions between non-state actors Political/economic tensions Between individuals DefinitionDistinctiveness Low Leans low Medium Leans high High DistinctivenessDomain Traditional Dimensions Modern military dimensions Political Economic Human Terrain DomainExtensiveness Global Regional Sub-regional National Domestic ExtensivenessImpetus Structural Relationship Value Interest Data ImpetusLength Years Months Days Hours Minutes LengthMeans Physical Political Economic Electronic/Cyber Information/ Psychological MeansPace High Leans high Medium Leans low Low PaceSalience High Leans high Medium Leans low Low Salience
1 2 3 4 5
Names of experts
Queries URLs
‘mandraulic’ selection based on
semi-automated
coding
automated coding
‘no’ selection selection pre-competitive
pre-ideological
pre-policymaking
more collaborative