Tp climate change-101-2

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Oscillation SummaryNatural climate oscillations effect regional, hemispheric, and global weather and climate.

Climate oscillation patterns are detectable in palaeoclimate proxies,

And are thus not anthropogenic.

The causes of climate oscillations are poorly understood; most have been defined only in the last 20 to 80 years.

Climate oscillations are inter-related, e.g. ENSO and PDO.

When in phase (e.g. warm phases of ENSO, PDO, AMO), global warming effect ~= warming of last century (0.6 OC).

We are entering a cool PDO phase.

PDO and AMO can explain much of recent Arctic sea ice melting and Alaskan glacier retreat.

Super El Ninos occurred before industrialization, thus are not anthropogenic.

Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32

0-2 +2+1-1

Climate Oscillations are not Radiative Forcing (at

least not directly) and thus do not show up on this IPCC balance sheet.

Oscillations AGW

Urban Heat Island Effect

Graph from http://wattsupwiththat.com

“The current state of the science is that the effect [of the Urban Heat Island] on the global temperature

record is small to negligible.” Real Climate

“This paper bends over backwards to argue for the retention of general

warming…., despite finding evidence that landscape change (in this case,

urbanization) alters long term trends.’’ Roger Pielke, Sr.

Urban Heat Island Effect in 49 California Counties

“Land-use change and landscape dynamics: influence on climate” Klein Goldwijk, 2001

1700Cropland

Grazing

Tropical Forest

Savannah

Grassland & Steppe

Open Shrubland

Temperate Deciduous Forest

Temperate Evergreen Forest

Hot Desert

Cropland

Grazing

Tropical Forest

Savannah

Grassland & Steppe

Open Shrubland

Hot Desert

Cropland

Grazing

Tropical Forest

Savannah

Grassland & Steppe

Open Shrubland

Hot Desert

Cropland

Grazing

Tropical Forest

Savannah

Grassland & Steppe

Open Shrubland

Hot Desert

Snows of Kilimanjaro

Land Use Summary

It is likely that UHI imparts a warming bias to land-based temperature readings.

Land management and land cover change are first order anthropogenic climate forcings.

Land use changes are under valued by the IPCC (Pielke, Sr.),

and thus the impact of GHG is over valued for the observed warming of the last century.

Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32

Land Use Black Carbon on Snow

Surface Albedo

Direct Aerosol

Cloud Albedo

Linear Contrails

0-2 +2+1-1

No volcanic aerosol effect is included

The IPCC does not credit UHI heating

The Case for CAGWThe Case for CAGW

“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” Carl Sagan

Evidence that Carbon Global Warming

1. Temperature follows CO2 levels in past.

2. Atmosphere shows characteristic heating pattern of adding GHG

CO2, CH4

Not evidence of CAGW:Not evidence of CAGW:

Arctic ice disappearingAntarctic ice shelf breaks looseGlaciers retreatingCoral reef bleachingMt. Kilimanjaro losing snowPolar bear population changingA change in cyclones /hurricanes/typhoonsDroughtsDry rivers

Palaeoclimate Records

Well Mixed Green House GasesWell Mixed Green House Gases

Records of changes in atmospheric composition over the past 1000 years. Ice core and firn data for several sites in Antarctica and Greenland are supplemented with the data from direct atmospheric samples over the past few decades.

“A Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”, United Nations, 2000

Correlatio

not causatio

“1998 was the warmest year of the millennium.”

Michael Mann et al, 1998

Little Ice

Medieval Warm

Period?

Wall Street Journal, Feb. 14, 2005Wall Street Journal, Feb. 14, 2005

Mr. McIntyre thinks there are more errors [in the Mann hockeystick] but says his audit is limited because he still doesn't know the exact computer code Dr. Mann used to generate the graph. Dr. Mann refuses to release it.

"Giving them the algorithm would be giving in to the intimidation tactics that these people are engaged in," he says.

Dr. Mann says his busy schedule didn't permit him to respond to "every frivolous note" from nonscientists…

Stephen McIntyre

Michael Mann

Hearing of the Investigations Subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, July, 2005

Michael Mann

Stephen McIntyre

It took an act of Congress to get the data released!

Bristlecone pine: Senior Citizens ~5,000 years old!

www.flickr.com/photos/

Width and density of annual rings changes in temperature. Briffa, et al, 2008

Graybill, 1983 Holzmann in 2007

Mann Hockystick Depended on Graybill Bristlecone Pine Chronologies

Figure 14. Left and middle – two cross sections of Colorado bristlecones from Brunstein (2006); right – strip bark juniper from Karakorum, Pakistan used in Jan Esper chronology.

Asymmetry prevent Accurate CoringAsymmetry prevent Accurate Coring

The CENSORED File of PalaeoClimate Proxies

“We discovered that an undocumented directory at Mann’s FTP site entitled “CENSORED” contained calculations without bristlecones.

Without the bristlecones, none of the PC series had a hockey stick shape.” James McIntyre, Climate AuditTemperature proxies from coral, ice

cores, and historical records

Polar Urals tree line, advancing modern tree line inbackground, medieval tree line in foreground (Jan Esper)

Other Studies Argued to Support Mann et al. Hockey Stick

IPCC 4TAR, Chapter 6, p467

MBH1999

JBB1998

DWJ2006

Instrumental (HadCRUT2v)

MJ2003

ECS2002

HCA2005

BOS..2001

AMO..2005

MSH..2005

PS2004

Palaeoclimate Hockey Sticks

All studies used same inappropriate

tree ring proxies

Polar Urals

Taymir

Yamal River, Northern Russia

It took 3 years and FIO to access archived data.

Briffa 12 Yamal live tree cores

CRU Archive substituting 34 Polar Ural recent live tree cores for Yamal cores

S. McIntyre 27Sep09

“YAD06 is the most influential

tree in the world. YAD06

does not always drink

beer, but when it does, it

drinks Dos Equis. Stay thirsty, my friends.”

The Yamal Ten

Steve McIntyre 30Sep09

Keith Briffa

Professor at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, U.K.

His specialism is dendroclimatology.

A lead author of The Physical Science Basis, Chapter 6, Palaeoclimate, 2007 IPCC 4TAR

Palaeoclimate Proxies (without Tree Ring Data) Temp. History

Proxy SummaryIPCC Hockey stick temperature curves are the result of Mannian manipulation, including the selective use of data.

Bristlecone pine and other strip bark tree ring proxies are suspect thermometers.

Few non-tree ring proxies produce a temperature hockey stick.

A large body of evidence supports a Roman warm period, MWP, and Little Ice Age.

Today’s temperatures are well within the 15 +/- 1 OC variation of this interglacial.

I’ve given up entirely on tree rings and am now focusing my efforts on petrified naked people. Find yourself a wad of those in some bog and you’ve got yourself a

bonafied “warm period”.

Palaeoclimate Instrument Temperatures

Measuring Temperature

Land Thermometers in Weather Stations

NOAA Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

Radiosonde a.k.a. Weather Balloons

Sea: EBTs (expendable

bathythermographs

Measuring Temperature in the Upper Atmosphere

~10% influence by surface temperature

(GISS)

“Instrument Record”, a.k.a. thermometers

Record Low volcanic aerosols

Measuring Land Temperature

Proposed Typical USCRN Station

USCRN Instrument Suite Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station,Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK

Well Situated CRN Site

“Stevenson Screen” NWS office Monterey, CA

NWS Location Specs.5 +/- 1 feet above ground

Location typical of area

Level open clearing

Located >4X height away from structures (trees, buildings, fences)

100 feet away from paved surface

WUWT, 27June07

Lampasas, TX, February 10, 2008

Buffalo Bill Dam, Cody WY

Detroit Lakes, WS

Roseburg, OR

wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/category/weather_stations/

Fillmore, UT USHCN Climate Station of Record,

Surfacestations Project Audit of USHCN Network, 1003 of 1221 surveyed (82%)

GHCN 1885

GHCN 1905

GHCN 1925

GHCN 1945

GHCN 1965

GHCN 1985

GHCN 2005

GHCN 2006

NOAA declares 2006 to be 5th warmest

Warm Bias in Surface Temp. Record

Surface minus Satellite Temperature = 0.20 OC/decade over land

Land = 29% Global Surface

IPCC Global projection of 0.20 OC/decade minus land bias 0.14OC/decade corrected

Argo Floats

Argo Float Descending

The Argo Network

Increasing Ocean Heat Content

Recent Cooling of the Ocean

Argo Float Data

Craig Loehle, Energy & Environment · Vol. 20, No. 1&2, 2009

The Oceans Cool while Atmospheric CO2 Rises

Dr. Roy Spencer August 27th, 2009

TRMM Microwave Imager40N-40S oceans

El Nino

Buoy & Ship-based Data

“Warmest August on Record!”18.64 OCEl Nino

Satellite Data

0.08 OC Cooler than Buoy Data18.56 OCEl Nino

Hadley Centre on Climate Change

El Nino

“This is much ado about nothing. The multiyear and multi-decadal changes in

Global SST anomalies appear to reflect the ocean’s ability to integrate ENSO.” Bob Tisdale

SST, OC

Temperature Record Summary

Ground-based measurements have a warm bias:

UHI Effect,

Urban bias over rural,

Poor site condition,

Night warm bias.

Ocean Heat Content:

Rose in last half of the last century,

Has declined since 2003 despite increasing atmospheric CO2.

Temperature Record Summary

SST measurements conflicting trends:

Buoy data warming,

Satellite data flat to slight cooling.

Top-of-Atmosphere flux:

ERBE: Hotter sea more heat radiated into space.

Models: Hotter sea more heat retained by atmosphere.

IPCC projections overstate warming.

CO2 Concentration 15July09

How much does CO2 heat the atmosphere?

"Human-made climate forcings, mainly greenhouse gases, heat the earth’s surface at a rate of about two watts per square meter—the equivalent of two tiny one-watt bulbs

burning over every square meter of the planet" James Hanson, GISS

2 Wm-2 ~ +0.53 OC

0.22OC with 40% cloud cover

Requires humanity to completely take over all natural effects that were operating before the Industrial Revolution

0.22OC with 40% cloud cover

Requires humanity to completely take over all natural effects that were operating before the Industrial Revolution

Beer’s Law: Transmission of

radiation is a logarithmic function of

concentration.

Delta T = alpha log (C/C0)

Svante Arrhenius, 1896

Logarithmic Response to GHG Concentration

Existing and Potential Anthropogenic CO2 Greenhouse Effect

Pre-Industrial CO2 Greenhouse Effect

Graph by Bill Illis modified by Anthony Watts 25Oct09

Miskolczi O OC Saturated Greenhouse (more CO2 less H2O)

Idso O.37 OC

Spencer O.46 OC

Lindzen O.5 OC Clear sky (0.22 OC with 40% cloud cover)

Schwartz, 1.1 OC

Chylek 1.4 OC

IPCC 3.0 OC H2O amplification

Climate Sensitivity (2 X CO2)

Without change in water vapor.

CO2 minus aerosols (no sun effect)

El Niño Invalidates H2O Multiplier Effect

Forecast Temperature Trend from CO2 - IPCC 4AR

Linear Trend, OC/Decade

Atmospheric Pressure, mb

Altitude, km

Eq90N 90S60S30S30N60N

Linear Trend, OC

Atmospheric Pressure, mb

Altitude, km

Actual Temperature Trend HadAT2 Radiosonde Data 1979 - 1999

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Model Projections vs. Actual

No Accelerated WarmingRSS MSU Satellites

1979 to present

The vertical axis is the global average temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius in the lower troposphere

UAH Satellite

2X CO2 = +1.2 OC

IPCC Hypothesis 2X CO2 = +3

to +6 OC

Present GHG

= +33 OC

Moderation Hypothesis

2X CO2 = +0.4 OC

Qualitative illustration of green house warming.

Vostok, Antarctica, Ice Core Record

CO2 Rise FOLLOWS Temperature Rise by ~800 years (IPCC 4TAR, p444)

Atmospheric Temperature and Carbon Dioxide: Feedback or Equilibrium? R. Taylor, Aug09

Temperature Independent of CO2

Vostok Ice Core Record

Range = 4.45 ppmv

Northern Hemisphere

+0.28 OC/decade

Southern Hemisphere

+0.07 OC/decade

Tropics +0.07

OC/decade

nWhat’s Warming the NH?

CO2 Warming SummaryHanson’s 2Wm-2 anthropogenic warming is indistinct from natural variability.

GH effect is logarithmic: 2X CO2 + 40 % clouds 0.22 OC.

Earth annually adjusts to 4 OC temp. swings.

Earth adjusts to El Nino heating.

No predicted GHG tropical troposphere hot spot.

Model presumption of constant RH is incorrect.

RH (and SH at 400 mb) are declining.

H2O amplification of CO2 warming is not seen.

CO2 Warming SummaryGlobal temp. has not risen in last 10 years,

despite increasing CO2.

No accelerated warming 1979 to present.

CO2 follows temperature:

Lags temp. drop by thousands of years,

Lags temp rise by ~800 years.

Temperature change is essentially independent of CO2.

Global Mean Radiative Forcings in 2005

Adapted from IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, page 32

CH4, N2O, Halocarbons

Tropospheric Stratospheric

Land Use Black Carbon on Snow

Long-lived greenhouse gases

Stratospheric water vapor from CH4

Surface Albedo

Direct Aerosol

Cloud Albedo

Linear Contrails

Solar Irradiance

Total net anthropogenic

0-2 +2+1-1

No volcanic aerosol effect is included

No adjustment is made for reduced tropospheric

moisture

The IPCC does not credit UHI heating

CAGW CO2 Fertilization

CO2 Fertilization Craig Idso, 2008

Bigtooth Aspen Growth

(e.g. Wheat)

(e.g. Maize)

Atmospheric CO2 (ppm above ambient)

Resource Limited and Stressed

Not Resource Limited or Stressed

1600400 800 1200

200Higher concentrations of CO2 allow the plant to reduce the

stomata openings and reduce water losses.

CO2 Fertilization Conclusions

CAGW ConclusionsThe Earth has been warming since the last interglacial ~18k years ago.

There is no evidence of an accelerated warming.

There is evidence of an ~10 year cooling period.

The Medieval Warm Period and other recent periods were warmer than present

Sea levels have risen 120 m since the last ice age and are 4 to 6 m below the last interglacial peak.

Current sea level rise rate is minor.

CAGW ConclusionsClouds, some possibly induced by GCR, have a much larger impact than AGHG

The sun influences GCR.

Aerosols have a net cooling effect, but less than previously thought.

There is no evidence of significant AGHG warming.

There is evidence of AGW from land use change and black carbon.

The Biosphere benefits from higher CO2.

Evidence that Carbon Global Warming

1. Temperature follows CO2 levels in past.

2. Atmosphere shows characteristic heating pattern of adding GHG

CO2, CH4

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