Tracking Structural Development Processesthrough the Inter-group Cohesion Index

John Cameron & Yih Lerh HuangISS

“All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” – Tolstoy, in Anna Karenina

What is Social Cohesion?

“the ongoing process of developing a community of shared values, shared challenges and equal opportunity within Canada, based on a sense of trust, hope and reciprocity among all Canadians”

Policy Research Sub-Committee on Social Cohesion (Canada)

“a set of social processes that help instil in individuals the sense of belonging to the same community and the feeling that they are recognised as members of that community”

Commissariat Général du Plan (France)

Multi-dimensional

BelongingInclusion

ParticipationRecognition

Legitimacy

IsolationExclusionNon-involvementRejectionIllegitimacy

Common valuesSocial order

Social solidaritySocial networks

Place attachment

Civic cultureSocial controlWealth disparitiesSocial capitalIdentity

Jenson (1998) Kearns and Forrest (2000)

Equality Inequality Rajulton et al. (2007)

The ISS Inter-group Cohesion Index measures

“the extent to which there is social cohesion between defined religious, ethnic, and linguistic groups, without degeneration into civil unrest or inter-group violence”

Indices of Social Development: Project Overview (2011)

Indicators:• Violent Demonstration• Deaths in Conflict• Inter-group Grievances• Civil Disorder• Internal Conflict• Terrorism Risk• Minority Rebellion Score• Log assassinations per log capita• Log guerrilla acts per log capita• Log riots per log capita• Terrorism• Log terrorist acts per log capita

Only countries with complete data sets are presented (n=96)

Inter-group Cohesion Index Summary

Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max1990 106 .5899623 .1009363 .0000000 .74474241995 103 .6572793 .0919776 .3840644 .80231222000 116 .5996492 .1341715 .2491713 .87444532005 158 .6093794 .0760247 .3515432 .74202202010 158 .5528531 .0854517 .0800696 .7008806 Includes all countries with a score for that chronological data-point

ISDs Mean Scores Weighted by Country Population, 1990-2010

Only countries with complete data sets are presented (n=96)

Adverse events and the onset and depth of declines

• 1997 Asian Financial Crisis• Post-9/11• ‘War on Terror’

Low Income Group

Peaked around 1995 Peaked around 2000

Lower Middle Income Group

Peaked around 1995 Peaked around 2000

Upper Middle Income Group

Peaked around 1995 Peaked around 2000

High Income Group

Peaked around 1995 Peaked around 2000

10 Year Change

Peaked ~ 1995 Peaked ~ 2000 Mann-Whineytest

cohesion Index -0.079 -0.140 p<0.000

Average 10 Year Change post-‘peak’

Peaked ~ 1995 Peaked ~ 2000 Mann-Whineytest

cohesion Index -0.079 -0.140 p<0.000

gdppc growth 34.6% 19.4% p<0.000

10 post-peak change: gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – High Income

10 year change (2000-2010): gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – Upper Income

Only countries with complete data sets are presented (n=64)

Clubs & Associations Index’s correlation with Inter-group Cohesion Index

Conclusion

• Significant decline in the Inter-group Cohesion Index between 1995 and 2010.

• Some ‘regional’ differences in the timing of the downturn• Greater resilliance in Cohesion scores and less impact on gdppc growth

rates in the 1995 cohort even when controlling for initial gdppc levels using two approaches

• ‘varieties of capitalism’• Small group solidarity as a response to structural insecurities

10 post-peak change: gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – Lower Income

10 post-peak change: gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – Lower Middle Income

10 post-peak change: gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – Upper Middle Income