Post on 20-Mar-2018
transcript
JANUARY - MARCH 2015
TRADER MAGAZINE
ELLIOT WAVEIN PRACTICE
EMU ANDEUROZONEPOLITICS war on the
RubleUS USES OIL AS DIPLOMATIC AND ECONOMIC WEAPON. TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN OIL DERIVATIVES ARE AT RISK.
USDTHROUGH
2 0 1 5
M O V I N G AV E R A G E B O UN C E SSTRATEGY
SELF-LIMITING B E L I E F S
PROFITS HOW TO LET RUN
FXCONTENTs
COMMODITY CURRENCIES
Effects of a Lower Oil Price on theFX Market
24
How to profit from Moving
Average bounces
4507 EDITOR’S NOTE
ASK THE COACH12 How to Let Profits Run?
CURRENCY WATCH15 US Dollar through 2015: Long-term Trend Remains Higher, and the Ruble will remain in rubble
MACROEONOMICS19 Eurozone: Will Greece be in EMU at the end of 2015?
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY40 Four Self-Limiting Beliefs thatSabotage Your Trading Performances
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS28 Elliott Wave Analysis: Putting the Theory into Practice
MONETARY POLICIES
49 Unfitting policies will not save the Euro-area or Japan in 2015
72 Federal Overnight Reserve Repurchase Repo and Fed Funds Implications for 2015
58 New G20 Banking Rules or “The Day Money Died”
INDUSTRY WATCH
36 Interview with Peter Rosenstreich, Head of Market Strategy at Swissquote
TRADING STRATEGY
53 When to trade against the fundamentals
67 Get prepared to beat your previous trading achievements
BOOK REVIEW62 TraderMind by Steve Ward
TECHNICAL REPORTS 76 Majors: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD EUR/JPY, USD/JPY
80 Trends and Targets: Majors, Emerging and Asian Markets
80 Featured Pairs: USD/CAD, GBP/JPY, USD/ZAR, USD/MYR
88 CONFERENCES & SEMINARS
INTERNATIONAL DATA84 FX Spot Monitor85 Central Bank Rates86 Economic Data - FX Poll87 Markets View
89 ECONOMIC CALENDAR
MOVING AVERAGES
31WAR ON THE RUBLEUS uses oil as diplomatic and economic weapon. Trillions of dollars in oil derivatives are at risk.
FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2015 3
Cover image source FreakingNews.com
FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2015 31
WAR ON THE RUBLEUS uses crude oil as diplomatic and economic weapon.
Trillions of dollars in oil derivatives are at risk.
The ruble has dropped by ne a r ly 5 0 % against the dollar since last January
The unanticipated drop in the price of oil was an act of geopolitical warfare
$3.9 trillion of banks’ derivatives speculation is on the price of commodities, including oil
by Ellen Brown
FXMACRO ECONOMICS
The Russian Ruble was 2014’s biggest loser plunging nearly 50 percent. An additional 17 percent drop is predicted under the pressure of sliding oil prices and U.S. and European economic sanctions against Russia.
32 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2015
MACRO ECONOMICSFX
On December 11th, Senator Elizabeth Warren charged Citigroup with “holding government funding hostage to ram through its government bailout p r o v i s i o n . ” At issue was a section in the omnibus budget bill repealing the Lincoln A m e n d m e n t to the Dodd-Frank Act, which protected depositor funds by requiring the largest banks to push out a portion of their derivatives business into non-F D I C - i n s u r e d subsidiaries.
Warren and R epresentative Maxine Waters came close to killing the spending bill because of this provision. But the tide turned, according to Waters, when not only Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, but President Obama himself lobbied lawmakers to vote for the
bill. It was not only a notable about-face for the president but represented an apparent shift in position for the banks.
Before Jamie Dimon intervened, it had been reported that the bailout provision was not a big deal for the banks and that they were not lobbying heavily for it, because it covered only a small portion of their
derivatives. As explained inTime:
The best argument for not freaking out about the repeal of the Lincoln
Amendment is that it wasn’t nearly as strong as its drafters intended it to be. . . . [W]hile the Lincoln A m e n d m e n t was intended to lasso all risky instruments, by the time all was said and done, it really only applied to about 5% of the derivatives activity of banks like Bank of America, C i t i g r o u p , JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, according to a 2012 Fitch report.
Quibbling over a mere 5% of the derivatives business sounds like much ado about nothing, but Jamie Dimon and the president evidently didn’t think so. Why?
Originally the Lincoln Amendment only applied to about 5% of the derivatives
activity of top tier US banks
The sudden dramatic collapse in the price of oil appears to be an act of geopolitical warfare against Russia. The result could be trillions of dollars in oil derivative losses; and depositors and taxpayers could be liable, following repeal of key portions of the Dodd-Frank Act signed into law on December 16th.