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Transformational Investment in Agri-food Systems and Youth Employment
Lulama Ndibongo TraubCo-Director: Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), Stellenbosch University
South Africa
Dr. Felix Kwame YeboahAssistant Professor, Michigan State University (MSU)
USA
Africa in the 21st CenturyAfrica is beyond bemoaning the past for its problems. The task of
undoing that past is ours, with the support of those willing to join us in
a continental renewal. We have a new generation of leaders who
know that we must take responsibility for our own destiny,
that we will uplift ourselves only by our own efforts in partnership with
those who wish us well.-- Nelson Mandela
Seven MegatrendsTrend #1: DemographicsTrend #2: Global food & energy pricesTrend #3: Rapid Changes in Land Distribution: Rise of
the medium-scale farmerTrend #4: Land Degradation
Trend #5: Income growth & distribution
Trend #6: Climate Change
Trend #7: Big data & Disruptive Technology
Seven MegatrendsTrend #1: Demographics Rapid population growth Youth bulge
Trend #2: Global food & energy pricesTrend #3: Rapid Changes in Land Distribution: Rise of
the medium-scale farmerTrend #4: Land Degradation
Trend #5: Income growth & distribution
Trend #6: Climate Change
Trend #7: Big data & Disruptive Technology
Trend #1: Rapid Population Growth
SSA population growth projections
Source: World Bank Development Group, 2015
6.17.2 6.8
0.92
2.13.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2015 2050 2100
Billi
ons o
f peo
ple
Rest of world Sub-Saharan Africa
Implication?
Regional shares in commodity consumption growth: 2016-2026
Source: OECD/FAO (2017), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”, OECD Agriculture statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-data-en.
8.1
10.2
16.1
13.8
9.7
2.8
2.0
19.05.7
3.5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wheat Rice Maize Othercoarsegrains
Fresh dairy Meat Fish Roots andtubers
Sugar Vegetableoil
Rest of World OECD Southeast Asia Sub-Saharan Africa China India
SSA Total Food Imports from 7 to 38 billion USD (2001-2016)
Source: ITC Trade Map
USD
Bill
ions
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Food Importsl_SSA Total Food Imports_nonSSA Total value food imports as % value of domestic agriculture production
Can Africa Feed Itself?
SSA Total Food Imports from 7 to 38 billion USD (2001-2016)
Source: ITC Trade Map
USD
Bill
ions
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total Food Importsl_SSA Total Food Imports_nonSSA Total value food imports as % value of domestic agriculture production
Is this cause for concern?
Food Import Growth and Employment: 2001-2010Manufacturing employment shares declined more rapidly for food import reliant countries
Source: GGDC and World Bank
Botswana Ghana
Kenya
Malawi
Mauritius
Nigeria
Senegal
Tanzania
-.04
-.02
0.02
.04.06
.09 .095 .1 .105 .11avg_g_imp_value
d_man_em_share Fitted valuesAver
age
annu
al %
cha
nge
in sh
are
of la
bor f
orce
en
gage
d in
man
ufac
turin
g
Average annual import value growth rate (%)
Off-farm Agri-food System jobs largely in commerce and less in agro-processing
Source: Yeobah and Jayne, 2017
Off-farm Agri-food System jobs largely in commerce and less in agro-processing
Source: Yeobah and Jayne, 2017
Are we exporting our jobs?
Strategies
“When the solution is simple, God is answering” – Albert Einstein
Primary Agricultural Level:
Growth driven by efficiency
Strategies
“Implement policies that promote broad-based agricultural growth”
Agricultural Output Growth Decomposition: 1961 - 2013
Source: Jayne, T. S., World bank data
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
SSA, Central SSA, Eastern SSA, Horn SSA, Sahel SSA, Southern SSA, Western SSA, Nigeria SSA TOTAL,without South
Africa
Irrigation Land expansion Input Intensification TFP
Strategies
Primary Agricultural Level:“Implement policies that promote broad-based agricultural growth”
Improved efficiency innovationInnovation increase in public expenditure in R&D and extension services
StrategiesAgriculture budget allocation by categories (%)
R&D Extension & Training
Burkina Faso2006 3.2% 9.2%2015 1.8% 6.3%
Burundi2006 27.4% 1.9%2015 2.1% 11.0%
Ghana2006 6.7% 12.0%2012 4.2% 8.3%
Kenya2007 12.7% 16.9%2015 5.9% 26.8%
Malawi2006 0.7% 3.3%2013 3.1% 3.6%
Mali2006 0.2% 3.3%2015 4.3% 1.2%
Mozambique2009 5.7% 7.6%2013 3.0% 7.6%
Senegal2010 0.2% 4.1%2015 0.9% 5.0%
Tanzania2007 6.3% 14.8%2015 7.1% 16.2%
Uganda2007 7.6% 16.1%2016 8.1% 23.0%
Benin2008 2.6% 13.2%2015 1.5% 7.3%Source: MAFAP, 2017
StrategiesAgriculture budget allocation by programs (%)
Country Year R&D Extension & Training
Burkina Faso2006 3.2% 9.2%2015 1.8% 6.3%
Burundi2006 27.4% 1.9%2015 2.1% 11.0%
Ghana2006 6.7% 12.0%2012 4.2% 8.3%
Kenya2007 12.7% 16.9%2015 5.9% 26.8%
Malawi2006 0.7% 3.3%2013 3.1% 3.6%
Mali2006 0.2% 3.3%2015 4.3% 1.2%
Mozambique2009 5.7% 7.6%2013 3.0% 7.6%
Senegal2010 0.2% 4.1%2015 0.9% 5.0%
Tanzania2007 6.3% 14.8%2015 7.1% 16.2%
Uganda2007 7.6% 16.1%2016 8.1% 23.0%
Benin2008 2.6% 13.2%2015 1.5% 7.3%
StrategiesAgriculture budget allocation by programs (%)
Country Year R&D Extension & Training
Burkina Faso2006 3.2% 9.2%2015 1.8% 6.3%
Burundi2006 27.4% 1.9%2015 2.1% 11.0%
Ghana2006 6.7% 12.0%2012 4.2% 8.3%
Kenya2007 12.7% 16.9%2015 5.9% 26.8%
Malawi2006 0.7% 3.3%2013 3.1% 3.6%
Mali2006 0.2% 3.3%2015 4.3% 1.2%
Mozambique2009 5.7% 7.6%2013 3.0% 7.6%
Senegal2010 0.2% 4.1%2015 0.9% 5.0%
Tanzania2007 6.3% 14.8%2015 7.1% 16.2%
Uganda2007 7.6% 16.1%2016 8.1% 23.0%
Benin2008 2.6% 13.2%2015 1.5% 7.3%
StrategiesAgro-Processing Level:
“Develop and implement industrial policy aimed at reducing costs, improving competitiveness and diversifying the economic base”
Strategies
• Reducing the cost of doing business– Improvements in physical infrastructure (cold chain
development)– Low-cost reliable energy
30,000 broilers (ZAR 1 million) lost in one night!
Source: Meyer, Ferdi (2017)
Stylized Facts of Structural Transformation
Source: World Bank Development Group, 2015
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0.05
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0.25
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ag_emp_share man_emp_share service_emp_share
Mauritius Sectoral Shares of Employment: 1970 – 2010
Ease of Doing Business Index: 2017
Source: World bank data
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Mauritius Kenya Botswana SouthAfrica
Zambia Malawi Ghana Tanzania Senegal Nigeria Ethiopia
Ease of Doing Business Rank Getting Electricity
We need to get it right
Youth Bulge & Employment
30Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013).
Thank You