TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS

By Climate Impact Company

August 2, 2020 3:00PM EDT

ISAIAS BRINGS FLASH FLOODING TO BGE

• At 2PM EDT Tropical Storm Isaias was located at 27.4N/79.7W or 45 mi. east-

southeast of Vero Beach, FL.

• Isaias is moving north-northwest at 9 mph with top wind 65 mph and surface pressure

995 MB.

• Comment: Isaias looks stronger. Usually recurving TC’s temporarily strengthen.

NOAA/NHC underestimating intensity for Southeast coast (and possibly Mid-Atlantic).

• Baltimore Gas and Electric can expect an ALERT 4 episode due to excessive rainfall

(4-7 in.). Maximum wind gust is forecast at 50 mph (ALERT 2).

• Onset of weather associated with Isaias is Monday evening, peaking Tuesday daytime

and abating late Tuesday.

LATEST NOAA FORECAST TRACKNOAA 5-day forecast with

caveats…

Tropical storm force wind profile

forecast…

TUESDAY IS THE PRIMARY FLOOD RISK DAY

NOAA Tuesday rainfall forecast…

NOAA Tuesday flash flood risk

forecast…

BGE WEATHER SCORECARD FOR T.S. ISAIAS

Time Weather Hazards Wind/Gust Alert

6PM MON to Midn Showers/Storms

(1 in. by midn)

None S 5-15 Borderline ALERT

1 (rain)

Midn to 6AM TUE Heavy rain/Storms

(1-2 in.)

Flooding

developing

E 8-18 Borderline ALERT

3 (rain)

6AM TUE to Noon Heavy rain/Storms

1-2 in. of rain

Wind/Flooding NE to N 16-27G45 ALERT 4 (rain)

Noon to 6PM TUE Heavy rain (1-2

in.)

Wind/Flooding NW to W 20-33

G40-50

ALERT 4 (rain)

6PM TUE to Midn Few showers Wind/Flood abate W to SW 8-18 ALL CLEAR 9PM

Storm Totals 4-7 in. rain Wind

damage/Flooding

Max gust 50 mph

Noon-2PM TUE

An ALERT 4 Event