Post on 27-Jun-2018
transcript
Asaf MalamudDeputy CEO, Portline Holdings Maritime Corp.CEO, Port Dragon Bulk Inc.
ULTRAMAX KAMSARMAX
4th Athens Triennial Meeting
Portline Holdings
~20,000 DWTLARGER
GEARED NON-GEARED
KAMSARMAXis the new Panamax breed.
BEAM ≤32.2M60,000-64,000 DWT
ULTRAMAXis the newer form of the Supramax.
BEAM ≤32.2M80,000-84,000 DWT
Coal28%
Iron Ore3%
Petroleum Coke3%
Grains23%Steel &
Ferro Scrap11%Fertilisers
6%
Aluminium Raws &
Products4%
Cement4%
Non-FerrousOres
4%
ForestProducts
10%
Salt2%
Cok, Pig Iron2%
Coal51%
Grains18%
Iron Ore17%
Fertilisers3%
AluminiumRaws 7%
Non-FerrousOres1%
Forest Products1%
PetroleumCoke1%
Other1%
COMMODITY MARKET SHARE COMPARISON
Ultramax Commodity Market Share Kamsarmax Commodity Market Share
Source: Clarksons Platou
• More variety in cargoes carried• Less susceptible to changes in one particular trade
• Less versatile in cargoes carried• More sensitive to changes in coal trade
5,464,0524,802,542
2,781,189
4,960,026
929,2741,548,506
2018 2019 2020
Orderbook (DWT): Ultramax vs Kamsarmax
50K-65K DWT 65K-85K DWT
• SUPRAMAX• ULTRAMAX
• PANAMAX• KAMSARMAX
5.89% 7.11%Orderbook (% of current fleet):
Supramax & Ultramax vs Panamax & Kamsarmax
5,604,902
2,871,189
1,019,274
6,284,650 6,030,301
2,006,486
2018 2019 2020
Orderbook (DWT): Expanded Range
40K-65K DWT 65K-100K DWT
• PANAMAX• KAMSARMAX+ POST PANAMAX
+ HANDYMAX• SUPRAMAX• ULTRAMAX
5.25% 7.93%Orderbook (% of current fleet):
Expanded Range
ORDERBOOK COMPARISON WITH EXPANDED RANGE DATAINCLUDINGHANDYMAX
POST PANAMAX
ORDERBOOK COMPARISONSUPRAMAX & ULTRAMAX
VSPANAMAX & KAMSARMAX
Source: Braemar ACM
Percentage of Vessels Above Age 15
50K-65K DWTvessels
65K-80K DWTvessels
5.3% 19.4%65K-100K DWTvessels
40K-65K DWTvessels
13.8% 16.6%Supramax, Ultramax
Panamax, KamsarmaxHandymax, Supramax, Ultramax
Panamax, Kamsarmax, Post Panamax
Panamax & Kamsarmax Age Profile
5-932%
0-433%
10-1415%
15-1913%
20+6%
25+1%
Supramax & Ultramax Age Profile
0-437%
5-945%
10-1413%
15-195%
20+0.5%
25+0.04%
A noticeable increase in percentage in the 15-25+ age bracket, signifies that the Panamax fleet is ageing.
Source: Braemar ACM
Source: Marsoft Inc.
BASE IRRBASE COAL DEMAND
Kamsarmax is more volatile, and in this case has an
increased effect on the downside versus the upside in comparison to the Ultramax.
IRR = Base+4.9%IRR = Base+4.5%
IRR = Base-4.1%IRR = Base-4.7%
+10%Coal Demand
-10%Coal Demand
∆IRR+10% Coal = 0.4%In favour of Kamsarmax
∆IRR-10% Coal = 0.6%In favour of Ultramax
Seaborne Coal Demand Sensitivity Analysis