Understanding Ecosystem Thresholds in Global Change Living with climate change: are there limits to...

transcript

Understanding Ecosystem Thresholds in Global

Change Living with climate

change: are there limits to adaptation?

Tyndall Centre and GECHS 2008

Dennis OjimaRobert Corell

(ojima@heinzctr.org)

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

•Global Climate Change and Impacts

•Impacts to Ecosystems•Adaptation Strategies

OUTLINE

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR

SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Warming Warming greatest at greatest at

high latitudeshigh latitudes

• 5 warmest years: 1998, 5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 20052002, 2003, 2004, 2005

• Amplification of warming Amplification of warming due to decrease of albedo due to decrease of albedo (melting of snow and ice)(melting of snow and ice)

IPCC 2007IPCC 2007

Signals from nature

THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FORSCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE

ENVIRONMENT

Lara Hansen / WWF

Jeremy Little / University of Washington

Source: Camille Parmesan

Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier

• Across the USA, tree swallows are nesting 9 days earlier than 40 years ago

• Laying date is highly correlated with May temperature

PINE BARK BEETLE OUTBREAKPINE BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK

(1) Predator – aggressive Bark Beetle

(2) Co-evolution – host defenses Small weak predator / large dangerous prey Mass Attack strategy

(3) Required synchrony of emergence at appropriate time of year

(4) No diapause – direct Temperature Control of Seasonality

MPB BASIC ECOLOGY

Interesting question: Focus of seasonal temperature triggers for overwintering populations and synchronous emergence without diapause J. LoganJ. Logan

385 ppm

650 ppm3.5 oC

450 ppm2 oC

550 ppm3 oC

Ocean Acidification

Pine Bark Beetles

Sea Level Rise

Biosphere Vulnerabilities

Coral Bleeching

A Concept for a Adaptation/Impacts Multi-SpaceA framing within which coping strategies are addressed

Time Scale: This Century

ADAPTATION DESIGNADAPTATION DESIGN• Adaptive Management practices are local and

need to take into account the complex, non-linear behaviour of socio-ecological systems

• Use of appropriate scenarios and downscaling techniques of climate change effects

• Full risk/uncertainty assessments• Projects need to be linked to capacity building

& technology transfer• Co-development of an integrative

management plan should treat the system as a socio-ecological system

Downscale Key Parameters at needed Scale

Develop the 4 Quad Scenarios with Drivers

Tease out Key Projections with Multi-Stresses

Set the Time Scales visa Climate Conditions

Craft and Implement Long-Range Plan

Frame the

Downscale

4 Quad Scenarios

Set Time Scale

Controlling Projections

Frame the Context and Scale (cities, water, etc.)

25-40 yr. Implementation Plan

Key Tracking Indicators and Evaluate ProgressKey Tracking Indicators and Evaluate Progress

Progress

A Coping/Adaptation Cascade

A Process to Craft a Long-Term (i.e., 25-40 years) Continuously Up-datable Adaptation Plan Focused on Climate Change with Exacerbating Stresses

Problem

Governance and Policy Actions

GWGConc.GWGConc.

Processes Respond Rapidly

These Processes Respond very Slowly

“Lots” of Luck Scenario1.Scenario Details2.3...n

Easy Street Scenario 1. Scenario Details2.3...n

“Get with it” Scenario1. Scenario Details

2.3...n

“Well just Delay” Scenario1. Scenario Details2.3...n

4 Quad Scenario Framework

Infrastructure

Household Decision-making

Political Economy, Institutions

Change Scenarios

Climate and other Environmental Influences

Land Use

Economy

Land Tenure

Ecosystem services

Cooperation/Enabling Mechanisms

Demography

Mitigation

Adaptation Strategies (long-term)

Coping Tactics (short-term)

T1 Household goals, Initial conditions

Resilience / V

ulnerability

Galvin et al

DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK

• Application of Adaptation Cascade in partnership with local communities, states, and other resource management entities

• Development of Adaptive management strategies to deal Ecological Thresholds

• Developing technological, scientific, socio-economic tools for addressing adaptation needs

SUMMARY

A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation

Planning

http://www.heinzctr.org/NEW_WEB/PDF/Adaptation_Report_October_10_2007.pdf

Understanding Ecosystem Thresholds in Global Change Living with climate change: are there limits to...

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