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Understanding the recession and laughing in its face
Presentation to the Association of Charity ShopsJoe SaxtonJuly 2009
Telephone: (020) 7426 8888e-mail: joe.saxton@nfpsynergy.net Web: www.nfpsynergy.net
The economics of the recession
Hard times ahead???
Durex profits surged 46% first half of this financial year
£32.5 million made by SLL
Source: London Paper, 26/11/08
21240: Economic Snapshot
Real GDP growth, quarter on quarterData up to Q1 2009
-2.00%
-1.60%
-1.20%
-0.80%
-0.40%
0.00%
0.40%
0.80%
1.20%
1.60%
2.00%1
98
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01
20
02
20
03
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04
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05
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06
20
07
20
08
20
09
21238: Economic Snapshot
Inflation – The three main measuresData up to May 2009
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%1
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90
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00
20
01
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02
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03
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04
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05
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06
20
07
20
08
20
09
CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Headline inflation (RPI)
Underlying inflation (RPIX)
21239: Economic Snapshot
Interest rate, at end of monthData up to May 2009
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%1
98
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00
20
01
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02
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03
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04
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05
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06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Bank of England base rate
Real interest rate (base rate minus RPI inflation)
21241: Economic Snapshot
Earnings growthNominal seasonally adjusted 3-month averages (including bonuses) vs. RPI inflation
Data to April 2009
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
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01
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02
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03
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04
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06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Nominal earnings growth
Real earnings growth
21242: Economic Snapshot
UnemploymentAmong all aged 16+, 3-month averages, seasonally adjustedData to April 2009
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
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0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200Unemployment rate (left hand axis)
Number unemployed, 000s (right hand axis)
19281: Economic Snapshot
UK house prices – Year-on-year % growthData to May 2009. Halifax data from 1984 within chart.
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%M
ay-9
2
May
-93
May
-94
May
-95
May
-96
May
-97
May
-98
May
-99
May
-00
May
-01
May
-02
May
-03
May
-04
May
-05
May
-06
May
-07
May
-08
May
-09
Halifax Nationwide
4933: Economic Snapshot
FTSE 100 share indexFigures shown are at the close of market trading every Monday. Data from 1984 is included within the datasheet.
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Jun
-89
Jun
-90
Jun
-91
Jun
-92
Jun
-93
Jun
-94
Jun
-95
Jun
-96
Jun
-97
Jun
-98
Jun
-99
Jun
-00
Jun
-01
Jun
-02
Jun
-03
Jun
-04
Jun
-05
Jun
-06
Jun
-07
Jun
-08
Jun
-09
22228: Economic Snapshot
The value of SterlingValue of £1 in terms of Euros and US Dollars. Monthly averages. Data to 16th June.
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Euros
Dollars
19274: Economic Snapshot
The value of retail salesYear on year % change in sales
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%Ja
n-0
6
Ma
r-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Jul-
06
Se
p-0
6
No
v-0
6
Jan
-07
Ma
r-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Jul-
07
Se
p-0
7
No
v-0
7
Jan
-08
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Jul-
08
Se
p-0
8
No
v-0
8
Jan
-09
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Total sales Like-for-like sales
How do people feel in a recession?
21647: Economic Snapshot
Consumer confidence index – MonthlyData up to May 2009
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%1
990
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
19280: Economic Snapshot
Optimism about household financesData to May 2009
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%2
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Balance
Past 12 months Next 12 months
22234: Economic Snapshot
Optimism about the UK economyData to May 2009
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%2
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Balance
Past 12 months Next 12 months
22235: Economic Snapshot
Confidence about employment and major purchasesData to May 2009
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%2
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Balance Major purchases Employment
21724:
Areas people are economising on% of shoppers who have economised on the following activities in the last 6 months
“Have you economised in the last 6 months on any of the following?…”
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Charitable donations
Gym membership
Air travel
Home and garden improvements
Cutting back on savings
Home entertainment
Treating yourself
Going out to the theatre
Holidays
Food shopping
Travelling by car
Clothes shopping
Eating out
Source: Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD)/nVisionBase: 1,002 respondents aged 18+, GB, 2008