Unit 3 – Foreign Policy Analysis

Foreign Policy Analysis

• Foreign policy is designed to protect and promote the national interest abroad

• Domestic policy is designed to protect and promote the national interest within the country

National Interest

Promote a nation’s

• Security

• Stability

• Prosperity

National Interest

Promote a nation’s• Security• Stability• ProsperityIn the domains of• Domestic• Regional• Global

National Interest

Promote a nation’s• Security• Stability• ProsperityIn the domains of• Domestic• Regional• GlobalIdentify threats to those interests, formulate policy

National Interest Policy Matrix

Domestic Regional Global

Security

Stability

Prosperity

Foreign Policy Analysis

• Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)– Individual Decision-maker (cognitive

paradigm)• Examine the decision-maker using one of several

different approaches

Decision-making variables

Decision-making variables

Affect

Decision-making variables

Affect

Cognition

Decision-making variables

Affect

Cognition

Personality

Decision-making variables

Affect

Cognition

Personality

Group

Decision-making variables

Affect

Cognition

Personality

Group

Social Milieu

Decision-making variables

Affect

Cognition

Personality

Group

Social Milieu

Time

Foreign Policy Analysis

• Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)– Individual Decision-maker (cognitive

paradigm)• Examine the decision-maker using one of several

different approaches • This approach costly in time and resources

Foreign Policy Analysis

• Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)– Individual Decision-maker – Bureaucratic Model

• Standard operating procedures• Turf battles

Iraq War case

President Bush

Secy StatePowell

Natl Sec AdvisorRice

Secy Defense Rumsfeld

Foreign Policy Analysis

• Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)– Individual Decision-maker – Bureaucratic Model– Neorealist Unitary Rational Actor model

• Assume rationality, assume unity• Personalities and individual quirks are

epiphenomenal• Focus on relative power status

Unitary Rational Actor Black Box analogy

Individual or group dynamics ignored

Party decision or behavior

Environmental condition

Greenstein’s Criteria

• When is it worth the time and resources to open the black box? Remember Occam’s razor “One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.”

Greenstein’s Criteria

• The actor occupies a strategic position

• In an ambiguous or unstable situation

• Where there are no clear precedents

• Or spontaneous or especially effortful behavior is required.