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transcript
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:IMG_3758_view_north_from_French_King_Bridge.jpg
The Connecticut River looking north in the early evening, from the French King Bridge at the Erving-Gill town line in Western Massachusetts.
Presentation to the New York Water Science Center
December 9, 2009
Stacey Archfield, Ph.D.
Research Hydrologist, USGS
MA-RI Water Science Center
FUNDING SOURCES:
Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection
U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Water Program
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
Richard Vogel, Tufts University
Peter Steeves and Sara Brandt, USGS
Stephen Garabedian and Peter Weiskel, USGS
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The importance of daily streamflow information
Photographs from: http://www.oceanriver.org/images/WestfieldRiverRussellMA_000.jpg; http://image.tutorvista.com/content/ecosystem/food-web-terrestrial-aquatic-ecosystem.jpeg,http://www.labsafety.com/Nalgene-Environmental-Sample-Bottles_24545938/, and http://jphotos.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/ww2.jpg.
USER-SPECIFIED TIME PERIOD
ST
RE
AM
FLO
W
Unimpacted streamflow
Instream-flow targets
Quantity of water available for withdrawal
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Project objectives
Develop an easy-to-use, screening-level, decision-support tool to estimate continuous unregulated and regulated daily streamflow at ungaged locations in Massachusetts
POINT-AND-CLICK GIS USER-INTERFACE COUPLED WITH
COMMONLY-USED SPREADSHEET AND DATABASE SOFTWARE
TECHNICALLY-DEFENSIBLE APPROACH REQUIRING
FEW PARAMETERS
USER CAN TEST WATER-MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS BY ADJUSTING THE PERIOD
OF ANALYSIS AND CHANGING INPUT DATA
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The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator
The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator(Decision-support tool)
Regulated streamflowUnregulated streamflow
State-wide water-use databaseFlow-duration curve
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY
ST
RE
AM
FL
OW
TIME
Flow series from index gage
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EXCEEDENCE PROBABILITY
ST
RE
AM
FL
OW
Estimate flow-duration curve by solving the regression equations
Solve regression equations that relate measurable basin characteristics to
flow-duration-curve statistics
TIME
ST
RE
AM
FL
OW
Convert the estimated flow-duration to a time series of streamflow by use of
an index gage
Area = XX.X mi2
ln(Q50) = a1 + b1 * (ln(Area))
Estimate basin characteristics
Estimate hydrograph
Sources: Ries and Friesz (1999), Fennessey (1994), Hughes and Smakhtin (1994)
Estimating unregulated daily streamflow
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Selection of an index gage using geostatistics
Archfield, S.A. and Vogel, R.M., in review, The Map-Correlation Method, submitted to Water Resources Research
Each point on the map is the Pearson’s r correlation between the natural logarithms of the streamflows at BURL and another gage.
By kriging the correlations, we obtain a correlation map for southern New England, which can be used to determine the correlation between any stream location and the BURL gage.
Natural log (Q AT BURL)
Natural log (Q AT HUBB)
EXAMPLE
R2 = 0.839
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Now suppose we want to select the gage most correlated with our ungaged site.
Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the BURL gage = 0.845
Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the OLDS gage = 0.793
Estimated R2 between ungaged site and the GREC gage = 0.882
We can create a correlation map for each of the potential index gages in our study area.
We can obtain kriged estimates of correlation between our ungaged site and each of the index-streamflow gages in the study area.
R2 = 0.845 R2 = 0.793 R2 = 0.882
Selection of an index-streamflow gage -- continued
We will use the GREC gage to transform the flow-duration
curve to a time series of flows.
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The MA SYE tool estimates daily mean streamflows from October 1, 1960 through September 30, 2004.
Streamflow gages used in the analysis
Each site was jack-knifed to compare estimated and observed streamflows.
Best
Worst
There are 66 gages identified as least-altered in southern New England.
Most sites have no major water withdrawals, discharges or return flows in the basin and the predominant land cover is forest.
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Observed and estimated streamflow
From Archfield and others (2009)
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Observed and estimated streamflow (best and worst)
Burlington Brook near Burlington, CT (Worst case)
Hubbard River near West Hartland, CT (Best case)
ST
RE
AM
FL
OW
, IN
CF
SS
TR
EA
MF
LO
W,
IN C
FS
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The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator
The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator(Decision-support tool)
Regulated streamflowUnregulated streamflow
State-wide water-use databaseFlow-duration curve
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY
ST
RE
AM
FL
OW
TIME
Flow series from index gage
12 of 20Source for STRMDEPL: Zarriello, P.J. and Barlow, P.M. (2000) and Jenkins, C.T. (1968)
If aquifer properties are known, the user has the option to apply the program STRMDEPL, an analytical solution that is used to include the time-varying effects of a ground-water withdrawal or discharge on streamflow
Regulated streamflowt = Unregulated streamflowt
(Ground-water dischargest)
(Return flowst)
– (Surface-water withdrawalst)
–(Ground-water withdrawalst)
Estimating regulated streamflow
WELL 1
WELL 2
WWTP 1
Ungaged location
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Limitations Regulated streamflow estimates are limited by the availability and quality
of the water-use data
Water-use type
Number of points in state-wide water-use
databaseTime resolution of
reported data Spatial resolution of reported data
Public-water-supply withdrawal 2360 Annual data Source-level water-use information
Public-water-supply withdrawal greater than 100,000 gallons per day 1420 Annual data Source-level water-use information
Non-public-water-supply withdrawal greater than 100,000 gallons per day 1743 Annual data System-level water-use information
Ground-water discharge greater than 15,000 gallons per day 204 Monthly data Source-level water-use information
National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) discharge 854 Monthly data Source-level water-use information
Estimates of regulated streamflow do not include other factors that have an effect on streamflow: land-use change, surface-water reservoirs, storm-water returns, and septic discharge
Method requires coincident ground- and surface-water divides- Existing ground-water-flow models are used to compute streamflow at fixed
stream locations where divides are not coincident From Archfield and others (2009)
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The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator
The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator(Decision-support tool)
Regulated streamflowUnregulated streamflow
State-wide water-use databaseFlow-duration curve
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY
ST
RE
AM
FL
OW
TIME
Flow series from index gage
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Point-and-click GIS user-interface
Users begin by opening an ESRI ArcMap document and locating the stream of interest.
Users also have the option to export a map and shapefile of the study area.
The user clicks on the stream location to delineate an on-the-fly watershed, compute basin characteristics, and query the water-use database for points within the watershed.
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Navigating the tool
A master Microsoft Excel file guides the user through the
post-processing, graphing and reporting of the results.
All relevant data is stored in a user-specified location and project folder.
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Scenario testing: Instream-flow targets, period of analysis
Estimated streamflows can
also be compared to monthly
instream-flow targets.
%xx
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Results
Results are summarized
for the user in a printable
2-page format.
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Application: Mapping streamflow alteration and water availability
Estimated annual flow alteration Estimated August flow alteration
Weiskel, P.K., Brandt, S.L., DeSimone, L.A., Ostiguy, L.J., and Archfield, S.A., 2010, Indicators of streamflow alteration, habitat fragmentation, impervious cover, and water quality for Massachusetts stream basins, USGS Scientific Investigations Report, 2009-5272
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Application: Relating streamflow alteration to fish data
Project contact for “Fish, Flow & Habitat”: Todd Richards, MDFW; Peter Weiskel, USGS
Per
cent
fluv
ial s
peci
alis
tsPercent net flow alteration (August) for nested basins
DRAFT < 15 %
> 15 %
Fish-sampling locations
Streamflow alteration
Imperviousness
In cooperation with:
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Contact Information
Stacey Archfield
Massachusetts-Rhode Island WSC
US Geological Survey
sarch@usgs.gov
(508) 490-5072
Peter Weiskel
Massachusetts-Rhode Island WSC
US Geological Survey
pweiskel@usgs.gov
(508) 490-5026