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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
U.S. Energy Market Outlook
forUnited States Association for Energy EconomicsNovember 7, 2012 | Austin, TX
byAdam Sieminski, Administrator
New York City metropolitan area gas station availability
2Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012
2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov 5-Nov0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
power but no inventories inventories but no powerno response gas stations available
percent of gas stations
Source: EIA Emergency Gasoline Availability Survey
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10/29 10/30 10/31 11/1 11/2 11/3 11/4 11/5 11/610/29 10/30 10/31 11/1 11/2 11/3 11/4 11/5 11/60
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Hurricane Sandy Power Outagesmillion customers
DEMERINHVAMDMAOHWVCTPANYNJOther
Hurricane Irene total outages
Sandy
Irene
Notes: Other states include: North Carolina, Vermont, Kentucky, District of Columbia, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois. Source: EIA based on U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery and Reliability situation reports. Data reflects most recent reports available through November 5, 10:00 AM EDT.
Electric customer outages and restoration times from Hurricane Sandy
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Four basic principles:
• Better, faster, cheaper
• Best practices
• Faster delivery
• More good people
5
Recent changes in the heating oil market
Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012
Heating fuel market shares vary regionally
6
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012
DC
Number of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region, winter 2012-13
Northeast
South
Midwest
West
U.S. total115 million homes
natural gas
propaneheating oilelectricity
woodkerosene/other/no heating
Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012
U.S. current population-weighted heating degree-days
The U.S. winter 2012-13 heating season forecast is about 2% warmer than the 30-year average, but 18% colder than last winter
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 (NOAA forecast)
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Note: Horizontal bars indicate monthly average degree days over the period 1971-2000.Source: EIA calculations based on NOAA state history and forecasts (August 15, 2012) weighted by same-year populations.
Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012
Expenditures are expected to increase this winter (October 1– March 31) for all fossil fuels
Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast)
Fuel billBase case
forecastIf 10% warmer than forecast
If 10% colder than forecast
Heating oil 19 7 32
Natural gas 15 3 28
Propane * 13 - -
Electricity 5 2 11
* Propane expenditures are a volume-weighted average of the Northeast and Midwest regions. All others are U.S. volume-weighted averages. Propane prices in warm and cold cases are not available.
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Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012
Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012
Heating oil remains much more expensive than natural gas
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-130
5
10
15
20
25
30
natural gas heating oil
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U.S. average residential winter heating fuel pricesdollars per million Btu
forecasthistory
Winter (October - March)
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012
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Key issues in the domestic fuel market
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Lower 48 oil and gas shale plays and federal lands
Source: U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior ‘s National Atlas of the United States
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Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
Eagle FordBakkenGranite WashBone SpringMontereyWoodfordNiobraraSpraberryAustin Chalk
tight oil production for select playsmillion barrels of oil per day
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
Rest of US
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Marcellus
Haynesville
Woodford
Fayetteville
Barnett
Antrim
shale gas production (dry)billion cubic feet per day
Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012
Sources shale gas: Lippman Consulting, Inc. gross withdrawal estimates as of August 2012 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.
Source tight oil: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through June 2012.
13
15
20
25
30
U.S. dry natural gastrillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
ProjectionsHistory 2010
Consumption
Domestic production
U.S. becomes a net natural gas exporter in 2022
5%
11%Net imports, 2010
Net exports, 2035
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Bakken production on federal, non-federal and BIA lands
Source: EIA
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U.S. leads the league table for non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth over the next two years
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Can
ada
Col
ombi
a
Rus
sia
Chi
na
Kaz
akhs
tan
Bra
zil
Indi
a
Vie
tnam
Om
an
Gab
on
Egy
pt
Mal
aysi
a
Aus
tralia
Oth
er N
orth
Sea
Aze
rbai
jan
Mex
ico
Syr
ia
Nor
way
Sud
an
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2012 2013
Source: EIA ,Short-Term Energy Outlook October 2012
change in production from previous yearmillion barrels per day
Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012
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U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines…moves even lower in various side case scenarios
0
5
10
15
20
25
U.S. liquid fuel supplymillion barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012
ProjectionsHistory 2010
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net petroleum imports 49%36%
60%
2005
15%High TRR/Vehicle Policy caseNet imports, 2005
Netimports,
2035
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Estimated unplanned production disruptions among non-OPEC producers, through October 2012
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-1
2
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2Ju
l-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
YemenUnited StatesSyriaSudan/S. SudanNorth SeaMexicoColombiaChinaCanadaBrazilAustraliaArgentina
thousand barrels per day
Source: EIA Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran Report, October 2012
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OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001-2011 average Surplus Capacity
million barrels per day
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2012
forecast
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EIA updates state level datasets with mapping features and energy infrastructure datasets
Source: EIA
Interactive map links to state level energy data
Adam Sieminski November 7, 2012
For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
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