Post on 18-Jan-2016
transcript
USE OF E-COMMERCE DATAInternational comparisons and a micro-perspective
Michael Polder, OECD-STI/EAS
Business Statistics User Event: How E-commerce is changing the shape of business, October 8 2015, BIS conference centre, London, UK
• A sketch of messages from recent OECD publications
• From statistics to economic analysis:– Using ICT survey micro-data to investigate the relation
between • E-commerce and competition
• E-commerce, innovation, and productivity
– Cross-country analysis with micro-data
Overview
A new STI Scoreboard coming up…
2015
To be released October 20
• Relative to broadband and website, e-commerce adoption is still fairly low
• … and there is substantial variation between countries
Sketches from recent OECD publications
• Magnitude of cross-border e-commerce is limited
• … pointing at serious obstacles to ‘go international’
Sketches from recent OECD publications
• Magnitude of cross-border e-commerce is limited
• … similarly for online purchases by individuals
• … pointing at a lack of confidence and trust
Sketches from recent OECD publications
• Online purchases by individuals are up…
• But still substantial country variation
• … and a gap between young and old
Sketches from recent OECD publications
• A new development: ‘m-commerce’ and ‘m-payment’
• Increasing importance and policy interest
• … But measurement?
Sketches from recent OECD publications
Relatively few firms are engaging in e-commerce
… especially cross-border e-commerce
Likewise, few individuals buy online from abroad
However, overall, online purchasing is increasing
… although a significant age gap remains
Overall there is still a substantial amount of cross-country variation in the adoption of e-commerce by both firms and households
Sketches from recent OECD publications
• ICT usage by enterprises• Relation of e-commerce with
– Competition– Innovation– Productivity
• Need firm-level analysis– It is (too) often forgotten that the micro-data
underlying national statistics is a valuable product!
Use of e-commerce data for economic analysis
• Background– Consequences of online trading:
• Lower search cost• Lower transaction cost• Markets become more transparant
– E.g. Brynjolfsson and Smith (2000, Management Science): “Frictionless markets”
• Increases (price) competition• Motivates firms to operate cost efficiently
E-commerce and competition
• Data (Netherlands only)– ICT usage and e-commerce enterprise survey– Structural Business Statistics– Innovation Survey– Period: 2002-2010
E-commerce and competition
E-commerce and competition
E-commerce and competition
E-commerce and competition
Markups lower in manufacturing relative to services, which indicates stronger competition in manufacturing
Source: CBS (2015), ICT and Economic Growth.
E-commerce and competition
Increases in e-sales and e-commerce in general have significantly lowered markups, in all sectors
Source: CBS (2015), ICT and Economic Growth.
• Background– Innovation is a driver of economic growth– Crépon-Duguet-Mairesse (CDM):
• Firms invest in R&D (innovation input)
• … this leads to knowledge generation (product innovation)
• … which ultimately results in increased business performance (productivity)
– Variations:• Griffith et al. (2004): product and process innovation
• Brynjolfsson et al: ICT investments and complementary organizational changes
E-commerce and competition
E-commerce, innovation and productivity
E-commerce, innovation and productivity
• Data (Netherlands only)– ICT usage and e-commerce enterprise survey– Structural Business Statistics– Innovation Survey– Period: 2004-2010
E-commerce and competition
E-commerce, innovation and productivity
ManufacturingPRODUCT
PROCESS ORGANIZATIONAL E-COMMERCE
coef coef coef coefproduct innovation -- 0,447*** 0,100* 0,112***process innovation 0,447*** -- 0,425*** -0,032*organizational innovation 0,100** 0,425*** -- 0,036e-commerce innovation 0,112*** -0,032* 0,036 --broadband intensity 0,160 -0,105 0,424*** -0,008R&D performer 1,315*** 0,428*** -- --
ServicesPRODUCT
PROCESS ORGANIZATIONAL E-COMMERCE
coef coef coef coefproduct innovation -- 0,626*** 0,239*** 0,106***process innovation 0,626*** -- 0,459*** 0,055***organizational innovation 0,239*** 0,459*** -- 0,062***e-commerce innovation 0,106*** 0,055*** 0,062*** --broadband intensity 0,427*** -0,054 0,257*** 0,074*R&D performer 1,134*** 0,640*** -- --
E-commerce, innovation and productivity
Manufacturing product process
organizational
e-commerce n.s. COMP COMP
Services product processorganizational
e-commerce SUBS COMP COMP
• In terms of productivity gains: e-commerce and process innovation complement each other
– That is: combination of both leads greater increase in productivity than the sum of their effects in isolation
• Same for e-commerce and organizational innovation
• Combination of product innovation with e-commerce does not have any excess productivity gains in manufacturing, and leads to lower gains in services (substitutes)
• Background:– Comparability of micro-level studies– What is the impact of institutional setting,
regulation, and policy?– Lack of available cross-country micro-data
Cross-country analysis using micro-data
Cross-country analysis using micro-data
Source: Bartelsman, Hagsten and Polder (2015), forthcoming
• ESSNet projects on data linking and ICT impact (ICT Impact, ESSLimit, ESSLait)
• 14 participating NSOs• ‘Micro-moments database’
– Indicators based on ‘micro-aggregated’ data– … from linked EC, IS, PS, trade databases– … going beyond usual breakdowns of aggregate
data
• Moreover: harmonized ‘distributed’ micro-datasets at various NSOs allow for remote execution type of empirical analysis
Cross-country analysis using micro-data
Cross-country analysis using micro-data
Source: Bartelsman, Hagsten and Polder (2015), forthcoming
• Examples:– Dispersion of productivity growth and ICT
• Productivity growth by country × time × industry• … and ICT vs non-ICT intensive firms
– Resource allocation:• Employment growth by by country × time × industry • … and by quartile of the firm-level productivity
growth distribution
Cross-country analysis using micro-data
• Examples:– Dispersion of productivity growth and ICT
• Productivity growth by country × time × industry• … and ICT vs non-ICT intensive firms
– Resource allocation:• Employment growth by by country × time × industry • … and by quartile of the firm-level productivity
growth distribution
Cross-country analysis using micro-data
Cross-country analysis using micro-data
International comparability is in general hampered by differences in•surveys between EU and non-EU and/or non-OECD countries•frequency of the survey•voluntary or compulsory nature of the survey•coverage of subsamples, especially in small countries•reference and recall periods•treatment of outliers and multinationals•ranges recorded in surveys•sectoral coverage•…
Selected data issues
Micro-data analysis benefits from
•Increased coverage of firms over time
•Coordination of sampling design between surveys (e.g. innovation and ICT)
•Stability of definitions and concepts over time
•Harmonization of definition and concepts across surveys
•Increased international harmonization allows the analysis of micro-data in a cross-country setting
Data issues
Any Questions??
Thank you for listening