Vanishing Hindus of India

(Work by Shanmukh, Saswati Sarkar, Dikgaj & Kirtivardhan Dave)

Presented bySaswati Sarkar

Background From 1st proper census

in 1872, Indics have been declining in undivided India from ~79% in 1872 to just over

73% in 1941 to ~66% in 2011

Indics are practitioners of religions that originated in the subcontinent (Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Animist religions)

Christians & Muslims have gained pop. share.

Background

In 1872, only Sindh, Kashmir, NWFP & Baluchistan Indic minority. Punjab & Bengal clear Indic

majority

Background

Consequence of Indic decline – Partition.

Material Cost of Partition – All property of both elites & commoners lost.

Human cost of Partition14.5 million displaced

2,00,000-2,000,000 killed in Punjab alone

Large number of women raped

Political affiliation & social status of Indics did not save them after Partition.

Aftermath of Partition

Indics have almost disappeared (from 20% in 1941 to 2% in 1998) in Pakistan. [1]

Indics have greatly reduced from ~29% in 1941 to 8.9% in 2011 in Bangladesh. [1], [2]

Hindus have declined in Sri Lanka from 23.2% in 1901 to 12.3% in 2012. [3]

In Nepal too, Hindus have been declining due to rise of Muslims and Christians.

Indian Union

Indics: 87.2% in 1951 to 83.2% in 2011Partition happened when

Indics at 75%

Muslims: 10.4% in 1951 to 14.2% in 2011.

Christians have been at 2.3% (on paper)

Indian Union – Overview from 1951

Indic minority states & Union Territory in 1951Mizoram, J&K, Lakshadweep (UT)

Indic minority states & Union Territory in 2011Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, J&K,

Lakshadweep (UT)

Indics between 50-60 % 2 more states (Manipur and Kerala)

Indic Demographics – Notation

Tehsils are sub-districts

On maps Tehsils that are <20% Indic are marked in red. Tehsils that are 20-50% Indic are marked in

dark green. Tehsils that are 50-60% Indic are marked in

light green. Tehsils that are >60% Indic are marked in white.

All India View2001 2011

Indic Minority–Jammu & Kashmir

Indics: 31% in 1961 to 35% in

1981 (influx of Pak refugees)

32.35% in 2011

Kashmiri Hindus (~5% in 1961) practically disappeared from their homeland.

Ladakh is Indic Minority with Indic population decreasing.

JammuHindus being pushed

south of the Chenab.

Hill Jammu6/7 districts of Hill Jammu

are Indic Minority.

Indic population decreasing in towns like Batote, Ramban &

Kishtwar. Kishtwar scene of Hindu-Muslim riots [4].

Muslim pop. increasing by >50% per decade in Naoshera & Ramban.

6/10 districts of Jammu are Indic minority

Indic Minority-North Eastern States53% of NE is Indic in

2011Christians: <5% in 1901,

45.03% in 2011.

Indics of Nagaland53.71 % in 1951, 9.6% in 2011,

Indics of Meghalaya73.03% (1951) to 21.02%

(2011)

Indics of Mizoram9.4% (1951) to 11.5% (2011)

Indic Majority States in North East

Arunachal Pradesh Christian plurality (34%)

Rapidly replacing Donyi Polo – unique religion of NE.

Manipur is 50.32% Indic, will be Christian plurality in 2021.

Sikkim sharp conversions

Christians rising to ~10%.

Only Tripura has Christians at 4.35%, (~12% of tribals converted).

Indic Minority - Meghalaya

Indics have fallen from 73% in 1951 to 21% in 2011.

37 of the 39 tehsils are Indic minority.

Only 1 tehsil – Khatarshnong Laitkroh – is >60% Indic.

Another tehsil, Pynursla is borderline Indic.

Indic Minority - Mizoram

I 27 of the 29 tehsils are Indic minority.

West Bunghmun is borderline.

Only 1 - Chawngte – is Buddhist majority.Buddhist majority due to

Chakmas (both indigenous & immigrant).

Indic Minority - Nagaland

Total conversion with many militant organisations calling for a Christian country of Nagaland. [6]

Not a single tehsil left Indic majority.

Dimapur tehsil, with its large Dimasa population and historic association with Asom is 42% Indic.

State on the Edge – Indics in Manipur

84% in 1951 to 50.2% in 2011

Exterminated or reduced to minority in Outer Manipur.

Borderline in 1 tehsil on Asom border.

Only Meiteis, who dominate Manipur valley, are still Hindu.

State on the Edge – Manipur

Imphal Valley essentially cut off from the rest of India.

Often blockaded by Christian Nagas, who dominate Tamenglong and Senapati districts.[8]

Indic Borderline State – Indics in Kerala

From 61% in 1951 to 54.7% in 2011.

5/14 districts are Indic minority.

5 more are borderline Indic.

Only 4 are >60% Indic. None are >70% Indic.

Indic Borderline State – Kerala

Malabar is 50.53% Indic 43.64% Muslims

Old Cochin, Central Travancore & Kanyakumari (in TN) are heavily Christian.

Both Hindus & Christians are losing population share to Muslims.

Serious Indic Weakening-AssamIndics:

73.32% in 1951 to 61.88% in 2011

Minority in 9 districts.Lower Assam

Less than 20% in many tehsils

Decreasing in actual numbers in Indic

minority tehsils like Chapar, Kalgachia & Baghbor

Tehsils north of Brahmaputra borderline.

Tehsils in Lakhimpur & Tezpur in Upper Assam are also being affected.

Barak Valley & south of Brahmaputra Most tehsils already Indic minority.

Indic collapse – Arunachal Pradesh

Indics were 98% in 1971 & were 66% in 2011.

Christian Plurality

Local religion – Donyi Polo being wiped out by Christianity.

Conversion rapid. Lost 16% Indics between 2001 & 2011.

Indics less than 20% or reduced to minority on Nagaland border and many areas around capital

Many tehsils in central and west Arunachal borderline Indic.

Weakening Indics in West BengalFrom 80% in 1951 to 72% in

2011.

Indic presence weaking almost all along the Bangladesh border

3 districts (Murshidabad, Maldah, Uttar Dinajpur) already Indic minority.

Most tehsils here are Indic minority.

Ganga part of Birbhum seriously hit.

Areas east of Bhagirathi in N & S 24 Paraganas are affected.

Largest Muslim Pocket – West UP

Muslim pop. half that of East Pak (BD) in 1951.

Largest number of Indics living in <60% Indic areas is in W UP.

This number growing fastest in UP (64 lakhs in 2001 to 90 lakhs in 2011).

.

1 district (Rampur) is Indic minority & 5 more are <60% Indic.

Upper Doab losing Indics fastest outside NE.

The W UP Muslim belt connects to the Terai Awadh Muslim belt & Mewat Muslim belt too

Weak Indic Pockets - Mewat Mewat (in both

Rajasthan & Haryana) is losing Indics the fastest.

Indic pop. share dropping 8% per decade in tehsils like Taoru

Mewat is the only Indic minority district of Haryana and is expanding into W UP Muslim belt.

Weak Indic Pockets – NE Bihar

1 district is Indic minority (Kishanganj)

2 more districts (Katihar & Ararea) are <60% Indic.

23 lakh Indics living in <60% Indic areas.

Bangladesh is growing into Bihar as well.

Weak Indic Pockets - Jharkhand Both NE & W-SW

tribal belts are showing serious fall of Indics.

NE

Pakaur & Sahebganj districts are both <60% Indic

W-SW

Simdega Indic minority

Rapid conversions in other tribal tehsils

Weak Indic Pockets - OdishaTribal Odisha in both N & S

are showing serious weaknesses.

Conversion

Many Indic free areas in Gajapati district.

Gajapati lost 6% Indics in 2001-2011.

Kandhamal also badly hit.

Sundargarh in north is showing similar features.

Consequences of Indic Decline

Indic flight wherever they are demographically weak

NSCN has called for Christian Nagaland & persecuted other (incl. Naga) faiths. [14].

Reangs told to leave Mizoram in 80s [7], they are now in Tripura [5]

Kashmiri Pandits from Kashmir Valley

Rabhas and Koch from Lower Assam

Nairs from Malabar

Kairana in West UP

WB: Basirhat,(30% Indic, though N 24 Parganas is 73% Indic), Kaliachak (11-34% Indic)

West UP: Muzaffarnagar (46-54% Indic)

Kerala: Marad (47% Indic)

J&K: Kishtwar (42% Indic)

Assam: Kokrajhar (40-60%)

Indic Imphal Valley blockaded by Christian Nagas from neighboring Tamenglong and Senapati districts [8]

Riots against Indics wherever they are demographically weak

Causes of Indic Decline

Lower TFR compared to Muslims

Rising disparity despite the TFR of both falling

Indic TFR below replacement rates in many states (eg, WB, Kerala, TN, Karnataka)

Conversion to Christianity

primarily economic, also social

Migration for economic opportunities (eg, from Malabar in Kerala, parts of WB)

Hindus cutting across party lines unite when attacked as in

Muzaffarnagar, West UP[9], Basirhat, West Bengal [11].Kerala:

Marad, Kerala [10] RSS, CPIM unity in weak Indic

demography regions [13], CPIM-IUML conflict [12]

Does ground level politics matter?

Groundwork by Hindu Groups

Vanavasi Kalyan Ashram & Seva Bharati (RSS affiliates) have been doing good work.

Many committed RSS pracharaks go to places like Nagaland, Meghalaya, Tripura in dangerous circumstances to help tribals & other Indics.

Ramakrishna Matha has been doing considerable work in Arunachal and Meghalaya.

ISKCON also has a considerable presence among Meiteis of Mizoram and in Tripura.

Many smaller ground level pro-Hindu organisations.

Does Ruling Party Matter? All parties have been equally indifferent to

demography.

Is BJP good for demography? Is Cong/Left bad for demography?

Hindu rate of decline in UP about same between 1981-2011

BJP in power from 1991-1993&1995-2002)

Anti-Conversion laws

• Gujarat, Rajasthan, Jharkhand (BJP)

• Odisha, Arunachal, AP, MP, HP, Chattisgarh (Cong, upgraded in MP by BJP).

Does Ruling Party Matter?

Bangladeshi Muslim infiltration

Happened in Assam and WB under all regimes in Center and State

Border fence shrank by 90kms under Modi sarkar (UPA had better record).

Deportation

No center or state govt serious (except Cong in 1960s post China war).

NRC not yet done.

Does Ruling Party Matter?Conversions lower under left governments

Jharkhand had fewer conversions during Left’s heyday.

Higher in Jharkhand than adjoining tribal WB.

Dropped in Kerala after Left organised.

Tripura & Manipur valley, which both have/had strong Left movements are still Hindu.

Odisha & Jharkhand saw sharpest rise of conversions from 1991, in BJD-BJP rule

Why are conversions lower under left governments ?

Conversions happen through championing by church of social and economic grievances of underprivileged

Left competes in the same space & prevents the entry of church because of its monopolistic nature

Tribal lands poached by Corporates & merchants under biz-friendly regimes (BJP, BJD)

Why current organized left is no solution for Hindu interests?

Anti-Hindu discourse of Cong-left intelligentsia

Anti-Hindu public postures of left leadership

Not opposed to all religions, but only to Hinduism

Beef fests in Hindu majority areas, but no pork fests in Muslim majority areas

On ground left cadres staunch Hindus (like RSS)

They are leaving left parties for BJP/RSS in both WB and KL

What is the Solution?

Social awareness & campaign by small groups

Public, legal and activist pressure through

Bipartisan ground level Indic organisations

Apolitical unaligned Indic intellectual ecosystems

Anti-conversion law in Jharkhand after our article flagged rampant conversions.

Apolitical unaligned focused Hindu human, religious & social rights & activist orgs

Women rights

Animal rights

What is the Solution?

Nation-wide Public pressure for

Strong policing to ensure Indic security

Expulsion of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Citizenship or easy refugee status for Hindus of Pakistan, Bangladesh&Sri Lanka.

Religion neutral, two child population policy, strictly enforced.

Indic return, under security cover, to areas of expulsion

What would the future look like if we do not act now?

Statistical Projections for Religious Demography in the next 50 years:

Our Articles on Demography West UP

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/population-muslims-muzaffarnagar-uttarakhand-shamli-western-uttar-pradesh-hindus-sikh-demography/story/1/10631.html

West Bengal https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/demographic-warning-west-bengal

Assam http://indiafacts.org/will-assam-muslim-majority-next-40-years/

Kerala & South TN http://indiafacts.org/kerala-south-tamil-nadu-case-hindu-fade/

Our Articles on Demography

Jammu & Kashmir https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/demographic-expansion-kashmir-and-shrinking-jammu-and-ladakh#.V3UOVSF0xwc.twitter

Hindi Heartland https://www.pgurus.com/hotspots-hindi-belt-part-1-northern-arc/ https://www.pgurus.com/hindu-population-shrinking-part-2-hotspots-series/ https://www.pgurus.com/computed-hindu-muslim-christian-growth-part-3-hotspots-series/

Our Articles on Demography

Central India http://indiafacts.org/rapid-christianization-tribal-regions-central-india-story-numbers/ http://indiafacts.org/tribal-regions-central-india-rapidly-christianized/

References

2011 figures for tehsils from Census of India 2011 http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/C-01.html

[1] AP Joshi, MD Srinivas, and JK Bajaj, ``Religious Demography of India’’

[2] Census of Bangladesh, 2011

[3] Census Archives of Sri Lanka.

[4] Kishtwar riots. http://www.claws.in/1065/kishtwar-riots-what-lies-beneath-communal-violence-pratibha-singh.html

References

[5] Ranabir Samaddar, ``Government of Peace’’, pp. 121-123

[6] Prasenjit Biswas, Chandan Shuklabaidya, ``Ethinc Life Worlds in North-East India’’, p. 182

[7] Quit Mizoram Notices, http://www.epw.in/journal/2014/25/reports-states-web-exclusives/quit-mizoram-notices.html

References[8] Naga blockade of Manipur.

http://www.firstpost.com/india/manipur-economic-blockade-shows-that-the-naga-peace-talks-have-failed-3214886.html

[9] Muzaffarnagar riots https://t.co/Eem9yZDBnH

[10] Marad Massacre https://archive.org/stream/ThomasPJosephCommissionOfInquiry-maradCommunalDistrabances/marad-report-part-II1_djvu.txt

References[11] Basirhat riots

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/the-invisible-social-engineering-at-work-in-west-bengal/article19386305.ece/amp/

[12] CPM-IUML violence http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/violence-leaves-north-kerala-bloody-as-political-equations-change/story-PmvnXLtkX97ST57NJX8a2H.html

[13] RSS-CPM join in Hindu minority areas https://archive.org/stream/ThomasPJosephCommissionOfInquiry-maradCommunalDistrabances/marad-report-part-II1_djvu.txt

References

[14] Kunal Ghosh, ``Separatism in North East India’’, pp. 57-58 https://books.google.ca/books?id=_8ylAgAAQBAJ&pg=PT58&dq=nagas+dropped+indigenous+religion+kunal+ghosh&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjW9r6ut-HVAhWEllQKHTNFBoAQ6AEIKDAA#v=onepage&q=nagas%20dropped%20indigenous%20religion%20kunal%20ghosh&f=false