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Verification of LM @ DWD
Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification activities
• Operational verification– surface weather elements (SYNOP)– precipitation (high density network)– verification of vertical profiles using TEMPs
and AMDARs
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification activities
• Preoperational verification & research– verification of LME– verification of precipitation forecasts using the
pattern recognition method by Ebert– suggestion about common verification
procedures in the future
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 6 UTC
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of BIAS T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of RMSE T2m of FCs valid 18 UTC
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 2 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of TSS RR> 10 mm/6h of FCs valid 18 UTC
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Time series of scores for QPF over Germany
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H < 800 m
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts SON 2004 00 UTC H > 800 m
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts DJF 2004/05 00 UTC H < 800 m
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts MAM 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 00 UTC H < 800 m
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJ 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Mean observations and forecasts JJA 2005 12 UTC H < 800 m
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of GME
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2002
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2003
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using high density network, Grid of LM 2004
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 1
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 2
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 3
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Verification of QPF using CRA method: January 2005, region 4
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Geopotential17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
27.09.2003
New GME
27.09.2003
New GME
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Wind Velocity17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
27.09.2003
New GME
27.09.2003
New GME
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Temperature17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
17.12.2003
GME PseudoTemps
27.09.2003
New GME
27.09.2003
New GME
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Relative Humidity16.09.2003
Prognostic Cloud Ice
16.09.2003
Prognostic Cloud Ice
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, RMSE, ...
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LM with LME, BIAS, ...
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE, ...
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME Experiment, RMSE, ...
2.39
2.56
2.34
2.53
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Verification of surface weather elements: Comparison of LME with LME experiment, BIAS, ...
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
Using ODB as a tool within verification
• Observational Data Base: data base filled with observations (used during assimilation cycle) and differences between observations and forecasts
• requires special software to install and to run• enables introduction of sql-statements to extract
observations and differences FC-OBS under any conditions (i.e. get surface temperature values [or errors] over the Alps in cases if inversion occures in Payerne between 1000 and 850 hPa)
COSMO General Meeting Zürich September 2005
That‘s all,thank you for
your attention!