Post on 21-Dec-2015
transcript
•USDA-MARC Heat Stress Overview
•Contributions by the National Weather Service
Verification of USDA-MARC Heat Stress Forecasts
Fostering Agency Relationships
•Heat waves can have a significant financial impact on feedlot cattle producers
•Cattle Risk Factors
•Genetics
•Health
•Production Status
•Previous Exposure to Heat Stress
Impacts of Heat Stress
Stage 5
Recognizing Heat Stress
•Extremely elevated breathing rate with pushing from flanks
•Open mouth breathing with tongue protruding
Stage 6
Recognizing Heat Stress
•Breathing is labored, and respiration rate may decrease
•Head down
•Not necessarily drooling
•Individual animals may be isolated from herd
•Breathing Rate Equation
•Studies have shown breathing rate to be a good indicator of cattle heat stress
•Breathing rate varies as cattle attempt to maintain thermal balance
•MARC researchers developed the breathing rate equation to predict the animal’s response to different weather conditions
Forecasting Heat Stress
•Important Weather Parameters
•Temperature
•Wind Speed
•Humidity
•Solar Radiation
Forecasting Heat Stress
Breathing Rate =(2.83 X Temperature) + (0.58 X Humidity) – (0.76 X Wind Speed) + (0.429 X (100 – Cloud Cover)) – 196.4
Forecasting Heat Stress
Predicted Breathing Rate Heat Stress Category
<= 90 breaths per minute Normal
91 – 110 breaths per minute Alert
111-130 breaths per minute Danger
> 130 breaths per minute Emergency
•Verify weather elements which are used in the breathing rate equation
•Identify which element(s) cause the greatest discrepancy between forecast breathing rate and observed breathing rate
•Provide meteorologically-based recommendations for the breathing rate equation
Research Goals
•Download observational data from NCDC
•Acquire archived forecast data from USDA-MARC
•Develop verification scripts
•Develop a verification grid
•Verify heat stress forecasts
•Map generation of heat stress forecast verification
Verification
•Observational data
•ASOS and AWOS sites
•Surface temperature, surface dew point, surface wind speed, cloud cover up to 12,000 FT
•Sky Cloud Product
•Satellite derived product
•Cloud cover above 12,000 FT
Verifying Weather Elements
•14 Separate Python Scripts
•Verification Grid Production
•Data Quality Control
•Data Ingest
•Data Verification
Verification Scripts
•GFE (Graphical Forecast Editor) used for verification image production
•Forecast domain enlarged to include entire heat stress forecast domain
•Modified scripts used to produce daily precipitation maps
•Modified GFE SerpTool for final image production
Verification Image Production
•HTML script with JavaScript embedded
•Allows for quick and easy navigation of available images
•Allows the user to select from a host of weather elements
•Allows the user to select individual forecast days or date ranges
Verification Image Display
•Finish verifying all of April – September 2008
•Begin downloading data for 2009
•Continue raising awareness of the USDA-MARC’s work on heat stress
Future Plans for the Study