Post on 24-Feb-2016
description
transcript
Vivien Foster & Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, World Bank
Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic: a multi-stakeholder effort
Key Message #1
ICT developments have been a major boost to African
growth in last decade
ICT responsible for one percentage point per capita of additional growth in early 2000s
The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow
The mobile sector has also proved to be a major fiscal cash cow
Fiscal revenues generated by ICT industry (via license fees and taxes)
amount to 4% of GDP on average
Key Message #2
The ICT revolution is Africa’s big infrastructure
success story
Population in range of GSM signal grows tenfold in less than a decade
Dramatic expansion in area served though closely following population centers
And 180 million new subscribers added, almost all of them prepaid
Key Message #3
The market alone can get Africa almost all the way to
universal access
Market could viably reach 92% population, many countries currently far off this target
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Perc
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Existi
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over
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Efficie
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Cove
rage
Gap
Market could viably reach 92% population, but in many countries falls short of potential
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The total investment cost of closing the coverage gap for Sub-Saharan Africa would be only US$3 billion
Most of Africa will be covered by mobile networks
Key Message #4
But the reform is not yet complete and prices for
mobile services remain high
Price of mobile services in Africa many times higher than in South Asia
Most African markets could support more than three mobile operators but many have less
Key Message #5
The fixed line segment is stagnant and
relatively inefficient
Modest increases in fixed line subscription, market even shrinking in South Africa
Many fixed line incumbents remain public, with low levels of efficiency
Key Message #6
In many countries, the government still owns the
fixed operator
Only one country has fully privatized its telco. Half remain fully government-owned
State-owned Partly private Fully private0
5
10
15
20
25
Num
ber o
f cou
ntrie
s
Only one country has fully privatized the incumbent, half remain fully government-owned
State-owned Partly private Fully private0
5
10
15
20
25
Num
ber o
f cou
ntrie
s Public ownership of operators is a drain on public finances
and creates conflict of interest within government
Key Message #7
Broadband is the next big challenge for ICT in Africa
Cost of dial-up internet access prohibitively expensive by global standards
Broadband price gap is even greater keeping broadband penetrations rates particularly low
Sub-Sa-haran Africa
South Asia Middle East & North Africa
Europe & Central Asia
Latin Amer-ica & Car-
ibbean
East Asia & Pacific
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
US$
per
100
kbit/
s (2
006)
Key Message #8
Reforms are needed to allow broadband companies
to compete
Limited capacity public internet access could be provided by market
Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market
Total investment cost of closing coverage gap for public internet
access in Sub-Saharan Africa would be only US$2 bn
Limited capacity public broadband access could be provided by market
But mass-market broadband won’t be commercially viable without access to spectrum, access to infrastructure for building fiber
networks and low-cost access to submarine cables
Key Message #9
Competitive access to submarine cables can slash
cost of international communications
Telephone calls to US very expensive, (and intra-African calls even more so)
Countries with submarine access benefit, and those with competitive access even more so
Share of
countries
(%)
Price per minute
for a call within
Sub-Saharan ($)
Price per
minute for a
call to US ($)
Price for 20 hours
per month of dial-up
Internet access ($)
No access to
submarine cable
67 1.34 0.86 67.95
Access to submarine cable
32 0.57 0.48 47.28
Monopoly international
gateway
16 0.70 0.72 37.36
Competitiveinternationalgateways
16 0.48 0.23 36.62
Privately financed submarine cable networks are growing quickly
OperationalJuly 2009
PlannedJuly 2009
OperationalJuly 2009
PlannedJuly 2009
Need to have competing cables and multiple
landing stations to avoid monopoly control over access to the cables
Privately financed submarine cable networks are growing quickly
Key Message #10
More terrestrial fiber-optic cable infrastructure will also
be needed
Evolution to fiber networks is essential for mass-market, low-cost broadband
Residential/Small business
Large/Mediumbusiness
0.4 0.2 0.2
24.9
151.2
98.1
249.1
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
PSTN + WLL Mobile NarrowbandAccess
BroadbandAccess
PSTN + WLL NarrowbandAccess
BroadbandAccess
Bac
kbon
e ba
ndw
idth
per
use
r (kb
ps)
Fiber networks do exist but their impact on the market has historically been limited
Many of them are owned by public entities – often too expensive and poor
quality
Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks
Countries which have fully liberalized have seen a rapid growth in fiber networks
Competition will drive investment into fiber on inter-city routes but not small towns and rural
areas
Can combine competition on profitable routes with government support for non-viable routes
Multiple competing networks on corridor
routes but government network is the only fiber
up-country