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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 1 GW-VCU : DRAFT
VTRA 2015 Case S : KM – 668 and VTRA 2015 Calibration Case Comparison
Jason R.W. Merrick (VCU) and J. Rene van Dorp (GW)
June 1st - 2nd, 2016
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 2
VTRA 2015 Study Area
GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
65
7
8
9
15
43
1
213
10
11
12
1. Buoy J2. ATBA3. WSJF4. ESJF5. Rosario6. Guemes7. Saddlebag8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun.10.PS North11.PS South12.Tacoma13.Sar/Skagit14.SJ Islands15.Islands Trt
VTRA 2010 Waterway Zones
14
6/7/2016 3
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
VTRA ’15 S : DP - 668 Update
Container and Bulk Carrier Routes Bunker Routes Case R or S
Case Q
+ Update on Arrival Process
CASE S VTRA 2010 OLD Case S VTRA 2015 Updated Case SContainer Ships 67 368
Bulk Carriers 348 300Subtotal 415 668
Bunkering Support 40 60Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 5 GW-VCU : DRAFT
0 4 1 3
2 6 10
8 5 7 12 9 11
VTRA 2010 Equidistant Fixed Arrival Pattern (one every 4 days)
VTRA 2010 – What If FV Scheduled Arrival Pattern Model
% OF VTRA ‘15 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 668: 1.14 % OF VTRA ‘10 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 415: 1.04
NOT SELECTED
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 6 GW-VCU : DRAFT
0 4 1 3
2 6 10
8 5 7 12 9 11 T1 T2 T3
VTRA 2010 Equidistant Fixed Arrival Pattern (one every 4 days) VTRA 2015 Random Arrival Pattern ( 3 Random Times in 12 days)
VTRA 2015 – What If FV Complete Random Arrival Pattern Model
NOT SELECTED
% OF VTRA ‘15 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 668: 1.17 % OF VTRA ‘10 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 415: 1.04
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 7 GW-VCU : DRAFT
5% 5% 5%
90% 90% 90%
0 4 1 3
2 6 10
8 5 7 12 9 11 T1 T2 T3
VTRA 2010 Equidistant Fixed Arrival Pattern (one every 4 days) VTRA 2015 Random Arrival Pattern ( 3 Random Times in 12 days)
VTRA 2015 – What If FV Scheduled Random Arrival Pattern Model
SELECTED
% OF VTRA ‘15 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 348: 1.15 % OF VTRA ‘10 BASE CASE POTENTIAL TOTAL OIL LOSS: CASE S: DP – 415: 1.04
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison
Oil Spill Size Category: ALL SPILL SIZES
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 9 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL
OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY
ALL SPILL SIZES
Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss)
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 10 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL
OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY
ALL SPILL SIZES
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss) Draft
VTRA '15: Call. Case 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.Grou+Coll.+All.Oil Loss: 100% of Cal. Case POL
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 11 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
S: DP - 668 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.Grou+Coll+All.Oil Loss: 115% of Cal. Case POL
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 12 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.8%
0.9%
3.6%
5.1%
6.8%
9.1%
10.4%
10.5%
12.5%
13.1%
13.3%
13.4%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
0.9%
4.1%
6.5%
7.6%
10.7%
9.3%
9.6%
11.9%
12.9%
26.2%
13.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
ATBA : 0.0% | x 0.89SJ Islands : +0.1% | x 1.68
Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.05Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.01
Buoy J : 0.0% | x 0.98Georgia Str. : +0.5% | x 1.13
WSJF : +1.4% | x 1.28Islands Trt : +0.8% | x 1.11
ESJF : +1.6% | x 1.18Rosario : -1.0% | x 0.90
Saddlebag : -0.9% | x 0.91Guemes : -0.6% | x 0.95
PS South : -0.1% | x 0.99Haro/Boun. : +12.9% | x 1.97
PS North : -0.1% | x 1.00
% Base Case Oil (Coll.+Grou.) Loss (OL) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Oil (Coll. + Grou. + All.) Loss - ALL_FV
S: DP - 668 : 115% ( +14.6% | x 1.15) VTRA '15: Call. Case : 100%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 13 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
1.0%
1.2%
1.5%
2.3%
3.0%
3.6%
3.6%
7.0%
7.7%
10.3%
13.0%
45.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.5%
0.9%
1.3%
1.3%
2.3%
3.1%
4.1%
3.9%
9.6%
7.7%
10.4%
13.4%
45.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
ATBA : 0.0% | x 1.00Sar/Skagit : 0.0% | x 0.99
Buoy J : +0.1% | x 1.30Saddlebag : -0.1% | x 0.88SJ Islands : +0.1% | x 1.11
Rosario : -0.2% | x 0.87Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.02
ESJF : +0.2% | x 1.05WSJF : +0.6% | x 1.16
Georgia Str. : +0.2% | x 1.07Haro/Boun. : +2.6% | x 1.37
PS North : 0.0% | x 1.00Guemes : +0.1% | x 1.01
Islands Trt : +0.3% | x 1.03PS South : +0.1% | x 1.00
% Base Case Accident Freq. (AF) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Accident (C+G+A) Frequency - ALL_FV
S: DP - 668 : 104% ( +4.0% | x 1.04) VTRA '15: Call. Case : 100%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 14 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 m3 or more
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 16 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case ≈ 0.47% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 5,746 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 4,942 Metric. Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3 Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 17 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more
≈ 0.43% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 5,586 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 4,804 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Draft
0.0003%
0.0005%
0.0006%
0.0008%
0.0026%
0.0061%
0.0195%
0.0239%
0.0310%
0.0327%
0.0345%
0.0491%
0.0734%
0.0919%
0.0991%
0.0005%
0.0008%
0.0006%
0.0010%
0.0035%
0.0054%
0.0200%
0.0292%
0.0308%
0.0307%
0.0402%
0.0511%
0.0581%
0.0830%
0.080%
0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% 0.10% 0.12%
Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.43SJ Islands : +0.0% | x 1.67
ATBA : 0.0% | x 0.92Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.25
Islands Trt : +0.0% | x 1.35Buoy J : 0.0% | x 0.88
Georgia Str. : +0.0% | x 1.03WSJF : +0.0% | x 1.22
PS North : 0.0% | x 0.99PS South : 0.0% | x 0.94
Haro/Boun. : +0.0% | x 1.17ESJF : +0.0% | x 1.04
Saddlebag : 0.0% | x 0.79Rosario : 0.0% | x 0.90Guemes : 0.0% | x 0.81
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more
S: DP - 668 : 0.43% ( -0.03% | x 0.93) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 0.47%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 18 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
5,699
5,527
11,112
5,491
4,002
6,328
6,918
6,354
5,134
5,702
4,835
6,203
5,901
6,221
5,089
5,834
5,027
9,577
5,355
4,396
5,425
6,813
6,112
5,070
5,655
4,349
6,225
6,462
6,323
5,746
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Sar/Skagit : +135.5 | x 1.02SJ Islands : -500.1 | x 0.91
ATBA : -1535.5 | x 0.86Tac. South : -+135.7 | x 0.98Islands Trt : +393.4 | x 1.10
Buoy J : -902.7 | x 0.86Georgia Str. : -104.3 | x 0.98
WSJF : -242.0 | x 0.96PS North : -64.4 | x 0.99PS South : -47.4 | x 0.99
Haro/Boun. : -485.8 | x 0.90ESJF : +21.9 | x 1.00
Saddlebag : +560.9 | x 1.10Rosario : +102.1 | x 1.02Guemes : +656.6 | x 1.13
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more
S: DP - 668 : 5886 m3 ( +140.3 | x 1.02) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 5746 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 19 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 m3 - 2500 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 21 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
≈ 0.50% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 1,628 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 1,400 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 22 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
≈ 0.53% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 1,618 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 1,391 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Draft
0.0003%
0.0002%
0.0003%
0.0011%
0.0074%
0.0038%
0.0180%
0.0194%
0.0536%
0.0351%
0.0658%
0.0479%
0.1232%
0.0240%
0.1032%
0.0003%
0.0003%
0.0004%
0.0011%
0.0091%
0.0054%
0.0247%
0.0211%
0.0537%
0.0353%
0.0784%
0.0483%
0.1205%
0.0235%
0.1061%
0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% 0.10% 0.12% 0.14%
Sar/Skagit : 0.0% | x 0.99SJ Islands : +0.0% | x 1.33
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.11Tac. South : 0.0% | x 0.96
Islands Trt : +0.0% | x 1.22Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.42
Georgia Str. : +0.0% | x 1.37WSJF : +0.0% | x 1.08
PS North : +0.0% | x 1.00PS South : +0.0% | x 1.01
Haro/Boun. : +0.0% | x 1.19ESJF : +0.0% | x 1.01
Saddlebag : 0.0% | x 0.98Rosario : 0.0% | x 0.98
Guemes : +0.0% | x 1.03
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3
S: DP - 668 : 0.53% ( +0.02% | x 1.05) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 0.50%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 23 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
1,224
1,559
1,632
1,193
1,464
1,648
1,568
1,614
1,406
1,447
1,435
1,456
1,820
1,760
1,777
1,232
1,667
1,613
1,197
1,490
1,685
1,549
1,600
1,412
1,484
1,450
1,494
1,830
1,821
1,697
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Sar/Skagit : +7.4 | x 1.01SJ Islands : +108.1 | x 1.07
ATBA : -19.1 | x 0.99Tac. South : +4.6 | x 1.00
Islands Trt : +25.6 | x 1.02Buoy J : +37.8 | x 1.02
Georgia Str. : -19.5 | x 0.99WSJF : -13.9 | x 0.99
PS North : +6.9 | x 1.00PS South : +37.1 | x 1.03
Haro/Boun. : +14.2 | x 1.01ESJF : +37.5 | x 1.03
Saddlebag : +9.2 | x 1.01Rosario : +61.2 | x 1.03Guemes : -79.8 | x 0.96
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident - ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3
S: DP - 668 : 1618 m3 ( -9.4 | x 0.99) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 1628 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 24 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 1 m3 - 1000 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
Average of ≈ 42 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 265 barrels)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 26 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1 m3 - 1000 m3
≈ 53.1% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case
Draft
Average of ≈ 53 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 334 Barrels)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 27 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1 m3 - 1000 m3
≈ 55.0% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Draft
0.2%
0.4%
0.0%
2.3%
11.1%
0.2%
2.6%
1.8%
6.0%
29.4%
7.4%
2.8%
0.6%
1.0%
3.4%
0.2%
0.4%
0.0%
2.4%
11.4%
0.2%
2.7%
2.1%
5.9%
29.6%
10.0%
3.1%
0.6%
0.8%
3.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Sar/Skagit : 0.0% | x 0.97SJ Islands : +0.1% | x 1.17
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.02
Islands Trt : +0.3% | x 1.03Buoy J : +0.1% | x 1.27
Georgia Str. : +0.1% | x 1.05WSJF : +0.3% | x 1.18
PS North : 0.0% | x 0.99PS South : +0.2% | x 1.01
Haro/Boun. : +2.6% | x 1.36ESJF : +0.2% | x 1.09
Saddlebag : 0.0% | x 0.93Rosario : -0.2% | x 0.81Guemes : 0.0% | x 1.00
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1 - 1000 m3
S: DP - 668 : 55.0% ( +1.9% | x 1.04) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 53.1%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 28 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
79
17
66
19
37
75
31
89
108
18
82
81
80
72
37
81
25
77
19
40
80
36
107
109
18
139
104
87
63
39
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Sar/Skagit : +1.1 | x 1.01SJ Islands : +8.6 | x 1.51
ATBA : +11.5 | x 1.18Tac. South : -+0.4 | x 0.98Islands Trt : +2.6 | x 1.07
Buoy J : +5.3 | x 1.07Georgia Str. : +5.5 | x 1.18
WSJF : +18.2 | x 1.20PS North : +0.5 | x 1.01PS South : -0.1 | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +57.2 | x 1.70ESJF : +22.8 | x 1.28
Saddlebag : +6.9 | x 1.09Rosario : -9.2 | x 0.87
Guemes : +1.3 | x 1.04
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1 - 1000 m3
S: DP - 668 : 53 m3 ( +11.1 | x 1.27) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 42 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 29 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 0 m3 - 1 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.4 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 31 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
VTRA ’15: Cal. Case
Draft
Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (= 2.5 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 32 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3 Draft
Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.4 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 33 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case S: DP - 668
Draft
Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (= 2.5 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 34 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case R: KM - 348
Draft
8%
39%
1%
62%
100%
15%
79%
79%
96%
100%
95%
72%
36%
47%
99%
7%
43%
1%
63%
100%
19%
81%
83%
96%
100%
98%
74%
32%
43%
99%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%
Sar/Skagit : -0.1% | x 0.99SJ Islands : +3.3% | x 1.08
ATBA : 0.0% | x 1.00Tac. South : +0.7% | x 1.01
Islands Trt : +0.1% | x 1.00Buoy J : +4.1% | x 1.27
Georgia Str. : +2.1% | x 1.03WSJF : +4.6% | x 1.06
PS North : 0.0% | x 1.00PS South : +0.0% | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +3.3% | x 1.04ESJF : +1.8% | x 1.03
Saddlebag : -3.6% | x 0.90Rosario : -4.4% | x 0.91
Guemes : +0.1% | x 1.00
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons
S: DP - 668 : 100.0% ( +0.0% | x 1.00) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 100.0%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 35 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
0.7
2.4
0.2
1.0
0.5
1.6
1.4
0.5
0.9
0.3
4.4
2.8
9.9
26.8
11.0
2.7
3.6
0.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.5
0.5
0.9
0.3
3.9
1.6
7.3
26.2
12.2
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Sar/Skagit : +1.9 | x 3.60SJ Islands : +1.2 | x 1.51
ATBA : -0.2 | x 0.14Tac. South : +0.1 | x 1.11
Islands Trt : +0.5 | x 2.16Buoy J : -0.4 | x 0.76
Georgia Str. : +0.1 | x 1.09WSJF : -0.1 | x 0.83
PS North : 0.0 | x 0.99PS South : +0.0 | x 1.03
Haro/Boun. : -0.6 | x 0.88ESJF : -1.2 | x 0.58
Saddlebag : -2.6 | x 0.74Rosario : -0.6 | x 0.98
Guemes : +1.1 | x 1.10
Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons
S: DP - 668 : 2.5 gallons ( +0.1 | x 1.03) VTRA '15: Cal. Case : 2.4 gallons
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
6/7/2016 36 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: All Spill Sizes
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 ANY SIZE
Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 39.8% 12.2% 47.4% 0.6% 100.0%
Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.01% 0.01% 1.7% 98.2% 100.0%
Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 5,745 1,627 42.0 0.01 1.5
Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.05% 0.05% 7.3% 98.7% 98.8%
Probability of at least one accident in 10 years by spill size 0.47% 0.50% 53.2% 100.0% 100.0%
Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 1.16% 1.25% 85.0% 100.0% 100.0%
OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 ANY SIZE
Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 38.1% ( -1.7%| x0.96 ) 12.7% ( +0.5%| x1.04 ) 63.0% ( +15.7%| x1.33 ) 0.6% ( +0.04%| x1.07 ) 114.5% ( +14.5%| x1.15 )
Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.01% ( 0.00%| x0.93 ) 0.01% ( +0.00%| x1.05 ) 1.8% ( +0.1%| x1.05 ) 102.1% ( +3.9%| x1.04 ) 104.0% ( +4.0%| x1.04 )
Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 5886 ( +141.2 | x1.02 ) 1618 ( -9.3 | x0.99 ) 53.0 ( +11.1 | x1.26 ) 0.01 ( +0.0 | x1.03 ) 1.7 ( +0.2 | x1.10 )
Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.04% ( 0.00%| x0.93 ) 0.05% ( +0.00%| x1.05 ) 7.7% ( +0.4%| x1.05 ) 98.9% ( +0.2%| x1.00 ) 99.0% ( +0.2%| x1.00 )
Probability of at least one accident in 10 years by spill size 0.43% ( -0.03%| x0.93 ) 0.53% ( +0.02%| x1.05 ) 55.1% ( +1.9%| x1.03 ) 100.0% ( 0.0%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.0%| x1.00 )
Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 1.08% ( -0.08%| x0.93 ) 1.31% ( +0.06%| x1.05 ) 86.5% ( +1.4%| x1.02 ) 100.0% ( 0.0%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.0%| x1.00 )
VTRA
'15
CAL.
CAS
EVT
RA '1
5 CA
SE S
: DP
-668
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Summary Relative Risk and Absolute Risk Comparison
Draft