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transcript
3/5/2009
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A. Limsakul, S. Khakrua, B. Suttamanuswong
Environmental Research and Training Center (ERTC)Department of Environmental Quality PromotionMinistry of Natural Resources and Environment
Vulnerability and Adaptation to Droughts/Floods in Thailand
Greater Mekong Subregion –Core Environment Program : Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Yunan and Guangxi Provinces of PR China, Thailand and Viet Nam, 24-26 Feb. 2009, Viet Nam
• Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns
• Observed climate changes & variability in Thailand
• Change in extreme climate events in Thailand
(CU & ERTC funded by TRF)
• Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood study (On-going project of ERTC)
• Future plan & direction
Outline of presentation
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Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns
Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns
Monsoon system
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Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
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Indian Ocean Dipole
Thailand is located near the center of ‘Tipping Points’ of the Earth Climate System.
Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns
It is highly prone to hydro-meteorological disasters.
Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns
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Examples of severe tropical cyclones causing large economic damage.
Typhoon ‘GAY’ (1989) Typhoon ‘LINDA’ (1997)
Typhoon ‘CHANTHU’ (2007) Typhoon ‘XANGSANE’ (2009)
Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns
Observed climate change & variability in Thailand
Max. temp.
Mean temp.
Min. temp.
Change in mean state of temperature(long-term)
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Observed climate change & variability in Thailand
-3
MEI
Tmin (62%)
Tmean (61%)
Tmax (60%)Change in mean state of temperature
(short-term & ENSO)
Source: Limsakul et. al.,2008
Observed climate change & variability in Thailand
98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105
Latitude
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Lon
git
ud
e
CH IANG RAI
CHIANG MAI
PHARE
NA N
UTTARADI T
PHITSAN ULOK
PHETCHABUN
NAKHON SAWAN
UDON THANI
KHO N KAEN
ROIET
SURIN
NA KHON RATCHAS IM A
LOP BURI
SUPHAN BU RIKANCHANA BUR I
BANGKOK ARANYA P RATHET
CH ANTHA BURISATTATHIP
PRA CHU AP KHIRIK HAN
CHUMPHON
RANONG
NAKHON SI THAM MARAT
PHUKET
TRAN G
SON GKHLA
NA RATHIW AT
Change in mean state of rainfall (leading mode of PCA)(long-term)
(40%)
(31%)
Source: Limsakul et. al.,2007
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Observed climate change & variability in Thailand
98 99 100 101 10 2 1 03 104 10 5
L atitude
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Lon
gitu
de
CHI ANG RAI
CHIAN G M AI
PHARE
NAN
UTTARADIT
PHITSAN ULOK
PHETC HABU N
NAKHON SAWAN
UDON THA NI
KHON KAEN
R OIET
SURIN
NAKHON RATCHASIMA
LOP BURI
SUPHAN BURIKANCHANA BURI
BANGKOK ARANY A PR ATHET
CHANTHA BURISATTATHIP
PRACH UAP KHIRIK HAN
C HUMPHON
RAN ONG
NAKHONSI THAMMARAT
PHUKET
TRANG
SONGKHLA
NARATHIW AT
Change in mean state of rainfall (leading mode of PCA)(short-term & ENSO)
Source: Limsakul et. al.,2007
During the 6 strong La Niña years (1975,1985, 1988, 1995, 1996 and 1999), Rtotal and Rday were higher than normal.
PCA1 of Rtotal and Rday in Thailand tended to be greater than normal during negative (La Niña condition) MEI.
Observed climate change & variability in Thailand
98 99 100 101 10 2 1 03 104 10 5
L atitude
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Lon
gitu
de
CHI ANG RAI
CHIAN G M AI
PHARE
NAN
UTTARADIT
PHITSAN ULOK
PHETC HABU N
NAKHON SAWAN
UDON THA NI
KHON KAEN
R OIET
SURIN
NAKHON RATCHASIMA
LOP BURI
SUPHAN BURIKANCHANA BURI
BANGKOK ARANY A PR ATHET
CHANTHA BURISATTATHIP
PRACH UAP KHIRIK HAN
C HUMPHON
RAN ONG
NAKHONSI THAMMARAT
PHUKET
TRANG
SONGKHLA
NARATHIW AT
Change in mean state of rainfall (leading mode of PCA)(short-term & ENSO)
Source: Limsakul et. al.,2007
During the 6 recent El Niño years (1972,1977, 1983, 1987, 1992 and 1997), Rtotal and Rday were lower than normal.
PAC1 of Rtotal and Rday in Thailand tended to be lower than normal during positive (El Niño condition) MEI.
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Observed climate change & variability in Thailand
Change in mean state of vapor pressure
Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008
Change in extreme climate events in Thailand
Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of climate events
Statistical-based extremes(warm days/nights)
Event-driven extremes(Flood/Drought)
(Assessment of Extreme Weather Events : Risk & Vulnerability Analysis, CU and ERTC funded by TRF)
(Vulnerability Analysis and Risk Assessment of flood/drought in Thailand, ERTC)
Representing the events in the tail of distribution that occur infrequently.
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Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of temperature and rainfall
Cool nights and days (Tmax and Tmin <10th percentile)Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008
Change in extreme climate events in Thailand
Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of temperature and rainfall
Warm nights and days (Tmax and Tmin >90th percentile)
Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008
Change in extreme climate events in Thailand
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Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of temperature and rainfall
Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008
Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII)
Change in extreme climate events in Thailand
Hotspot of temperature extreme
Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008
Trend significant at 95% 1Trend no significant 95% 0
Hotspot values =∑(all score)
0 157
Change in extreme climate events in Thailand
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Hotspot of rainfall extreme
Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008
Change in extreme climate events in Thailand
Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Goals:
Expected outcomes:
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Methodology
Provincial level
National level
Grassroots level
Flood/Drought Hotspot Mapping
Flood/Drought Index Analysis (SPI)Flood/Drought Data Collection
Socio-Economic Vulnerability Indices
Vulnerability & Risk Analysisin hotspots
Biophysical Vulnerability Social Vulnerability
Community-based adaptation(Indigenous knowledge + Sufficiency Economy Philosophy)
Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Vulnerability-based (bottom-up) approach
Past Present Future
Adaptation Options/means
VulnerabilityAdaptive capacity
based onhuman, socio-economic dimensions
(Equity, Technology, Infrastructure, Institutions, Education, Health, Environments)
Human Development Index (HDI)Environmental Vulnerability Index (ENI)Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)Water Poverty Index (WPI)
Understanding of past and present vulnerability/sensitivityIncrease in future adaptive capacity
Food/Drought Hazards and Disasters
Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
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Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Historical records of drought/flood-affected areas in Thailand
Source: Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation
Hotspot mapping of drought/flood based on the records complied from the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Provincial Office
Flood frequency (2005-2007)
(2005)
(2006)
(2007)
Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
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Hotspot mapping of drought/flood based on the records complied from the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Provincial Office
Drought frequency (2005-2007)
Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
‘Drought Hotspot’Human Achievement Index (HAI)
HAI is composed of 8 indices-Health-Education-Employment-Income-Housing & Living Environment-Family & Community Life-Transportation & Communication-Participation
Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
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Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Source Types of Indices
1. United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI), Human Achievement Index (HAI)
2. South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission (SOPAC)
Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI)
3. Global Leaders of Tomorrow Environmental Task Forces and the Universities of Yale and Columbia
Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)
4. Center for Ecology and Hydrology in Wallingford Water Poverty Index (WPI)
5. United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) Disaster Risk Index (DRI)
6. Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research Indicators of risk, vulnerability and adaptive capacity
A suite of vulnerability indices(community, provincial levels)
Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Community-based adaptation to drought/flood(Kula Ronghai Field)
Source: Kerdsuk, V., Khon Kean University
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Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Community-based adaptation to drought/flood(Kula Ronghai Field)
Source: Kerdsuk, V., Khon Kean University
Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Community-based adaptation to drought/flood(Kula Ronghai Field)
Source: Kerdsuk, V., Khon Kean University
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Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Community-based adaptation to drought/flood(Kula Ronghai Field)
Source: Kerdsuk, V., Khon Kean University
Previous study carried by Khon Kean University under START Capacity Building
Action plan of community-based adaptation for flood-affected, drought-affected and flood-drought affected villages
ERTC
Khon Kean University
Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Villagers Local governments
ERTC & KKU
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Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood in Thailand
Future plan & direction
Socio-economic-human-environment vulnerability assessment of climate extreme
in ‘Hotspot Areas’
Hotspot mapping of drought/flood disasters in Thailand
Hotspot mapping of rainfall/temperatures extreme events in Thailand
Climate-related Extreme
National level
Provincial level
Community level
Community-based adaptation/Climate resilient communities
Villager Volunteer Network
Indigenous knowledgeSufficiency Economy Philosophy
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Past Present Future
Vulnerability
Adaptive capacitybased on
human, socio-economic dimensions(Equity, Technology, Infrastructure,
Institutions, Education, Health)
Bottom up (Vulnerability-based) approach
World development
GHG
Global climate models
Impacts
Vulnerability
Global
Local
Top down (Impact-based) approach
Climate adaptation policy &Strategies
Future plan & direction
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