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Water availability
Stefan Kaden & Michael KaltofenWASY GmbH, Institute for Water Resources Planning and Systems Research, Berlin, Germany
GLOWA-ElbeGLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne
Water resources management and water availability in the Elbe river basin under conditions of
global change W
Bal
Mo
Elb
e
Water availability
te
Project I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA)
Regional actors, decision bodies
Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change
Glo
ba
lC
ha
ng
eM
ana
gem
ent
lev
el
Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis
Management-options
Impact-analysis
Evaluation
Project IV:
Surface Water Quality
Nutrient entry
Cost-efficiency analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socio-economic Indicators
Project III:
Surface Water Availability
Run off regulation
Multi-criteria analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socio-economic Indicators
Pro
ject adviso
ry bo
ard
Development of wateravailability under conditionsof global change (climate andsocio-economics)?
Management strategies / policy options to solve arising problems of water availability?Socio-economic and ecological consequences of those strategies?
Water availability
ConstraintsObjectives
• Satisfaction of water demand (municipalities, agriculture, industry, navigation, etc.)• Minimum discharge• Flood protection
• Water quality and ecological objectives ….
• Water resources (availability and usability)• Capacity of reservoirs• Hydro-morphology of rivers• Capacities of water transfers
• State of aquatic ecology ……
Goals & basic methodologies
FuturePast
Water yield
Water use
Uncertain and stochastic changing water yield
Uncertain water demand
Water management
Water availability
ConstraintsObjectives
• Satisfaction of water demand (municipalities, agriculture, industry, navigation, etc.)• Minimum discharge• Flood protection
• Water quality and ecological objectives ….
• Water resources (availability and usability)• Capacity of reservoirs• Hydro-morphology of rivers• Capacities of water transfers
• State of aquatic ecology ……
Goals & basic methodologies
Interest groups Decision makers /Institutions
Stakeholder
Managementalternatives
• Reservoirs, • Ranking of water supply• ....Stochastic long-term simulation of
water management in river basins
Water management
Multi-criteria, stochastic, uncertain, multiple decision maker
Water availability
Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes
Simulation P, PET
DeterministicP-Q-Model
Q(t)
Stochasticgenerated
climate series
Goals & basic methodologies
Water availability
Precipitation
Runoff STG 1
2003 bis 2007, R1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 11 21 31 41 51 mon
Precipitation [mm/mon]
2003 bis 2007, R2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 11 21 31 41 51 mon
runoff [m³/s]
Goals & basic methodologies
Water availability
Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes
Simulation P, PET
DeterministicP-Q-Model
Q(t)
Stochasticgenerated
climate series
Balancing of water yield and water demand withinsocio-economic context
Deterministic Simulation of Water Use
Management Rules, Ranking Rules
Goals & basic methodologies
Water availability
simulation software WBalMo®
Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes
Simulation P, PET
DeterministicP-Q-Model
Q(t)
Stochasticgenerated
climate series
e.g. certainty of water supply
or minimum flow
Balancing of water yield and water demand withinsocio-economic context
Deterministic Simulation of Water Use
Management Rules, Ranking Rules
Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events)
Goals & basic methodologies
Water availability
Probability of satisfaction of demand (stream flow/ filling duration/ water deficit ...) at a defined indicator level
example: Indicator: Berlin-inflow (Große Tränke/Spree: demand 8 m3/s)
2003-20075-year-period
80
85
90
95
100
prob
abili
ty [
%]
values calculated for each m onthScenario X
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12month
values show n for low -flow month J ULYScenario X
but
Goals & basic methodologies
Water availability
Indicator: Berlin-inflow (Große Tränke/Spree: minimum flow 8 m3/s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
stre
am flo
w [
m3/s
]
03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods
long-term low-flow conditions/ JulyReference
B2-BasisB2-Filling
Reservoir system Lohsa II/ BärwaldeDams Bautzen/ Quitzdorf
Reservoir lake "Cottbuser See"
Barrage Spremberg
Goals & basic methodologies
Water availability
Socioeconomicdevelopment
Climate change
WBalMoBalancing water demand
and water resources
Water demand
Water resources
IMA andWater availability
Goals & basic methodologies
Wat
er m
anag
emen
t, ec
olog
ical
, soc
ioec
onom
ic
Water availability
GLOWA I WBalMo model development and application for Spree river basin (about 10.000 km2)
GLOWA II WBalMo model development and application for Elbe river basin (about 150.000 km2)
Goals & basic methodologies
WBalMo Spree:Standard planning toolof water authorities in the basin
GRMSTEU:Control model for daily management
Water availability Goals & basic methodologies
Methodological problems
Dimension of problem: more than 5000 users, 500 sub-areas, 50 years, 100 realizations
Combination of existing and new models
Scale:Length of Elbe river about 1000 km
Concept of “active modules”
Balancing considering travel time
Parallelization of modeling
Water availability
Czech RepublicMuldeSaale
Spree-Havel
Elbe River
(Spreewald)
Goals & basic methodologies
Water availability
Modular structure of the WBalMo model - „active modules“ -
Water demand x
Reservoir release
Goals & basic methodologies
Water availability
Water demand x
Active module y
Bidirectional interface
Server module
Goals & basic methodologies
Water availability
Berounka
Havel
Bode
Weiße Elster
Lower Elbe
Saale
SpreeSchw. Elster
Main Elbe
MuldeUpper and
Middle Labe
Lower Vltava
Ohře and Lower Labe
Upper Vltava
Main working steps
1 Structuring of the WBalMo system for the river basin
Water availability
Rau
sche
n-
fluß
17
16
Kl. B.
ELBE
Ver
ein.
Mul
de
Ver
ein.
Mul
de
Flöha
Gim
mli
tz
Gr.
Mit
t-
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da
Pöh
lwas
ser
Pöh
lbac
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önit
z
Würschnitz
Lungwitz- bach
Bob
ritz
sch
Lossa Leine
Lober
Sch
war
ze
Poc
kau
12
14
13
16
15
17 18
19
20
11
10 9
Nat
zsch
ung
8
7 6
5 4
3
2
1
Gr.
Pyr
a
Thümmlitz-bach
Rauschen-bach
Fla
jsk
Saiden-bach
Zw. Mulde
Gr.
Boc
kau
Seh
ma
Sch
ade-
ba
ch
15
8 2
7
3 6
4
13
11
10
9
12
14
1
Zw. Mulde
Frbg. Mulde
Frb
g. M
ulde
Che
mni
tz
Flö
ha
Zsc
hopa
u
Sch
war
zwas
ser
Gr.
Str
iegi
s
Zsc
hopa
u
Wil
zsch
Pre
ßnit
z
5
Speicher/ Talsperren: 1 TS Muldenberg 2 TS Carlsfeld 3 TS Eibenstock 4 TS Sosa 5 TS Cranzahl 6 u.n. Prisecnice 7 u.n. Flaje 8 TS Rauschenbach 9 TS Saidenbach 10 TS Neunzehnhain II 11 TS Kriebstein 12 TS Lichtenberg 13 TS Kössern 14 SB Schadebach 15 Muldestausee 16 Großhartmannsdorfer
Teich 17 TS Stollberg
Schema WBalMo-Mulde Pegel:
1 Sachsengrund/ Große Pyra 2 Aue 1/ Schwarzwasser 3 Zwickau-Pöblitz/ Zw. Mulde 4 Wechselburg/ Zw. Mulde 5 Göritzhain/ Chemnitz 6 Annaberg/ Sehma 7 Streckewalde/ Preßnitz 8 Hopfgarten/ Zschopau 9 Rothenthal/ Natzschung 10 Rauschenbach 2/ Rauschenfluß 11 Pockau 1/ Flöha 12 Zöblitz/ Schwarze Pockau 13 Borstendorf/ Flöha 14 Lichtenwalde/ Zschopau 15 Berthelsdorf/ Frbg. Mulde 16 Nossen 1/ Frbg. Mulde 17 Niederstriegis 1/ Striegis 18 Erlln/ Frbg. Mulde 19 Golzern/ Verein. Mulde 20 Bad Düben/ Verein. Mulde
Großer Goitsche See
Seelhausener See
See Golpa Nord
Werbeliner See
Gröberner See
Talsperre Eibenstock
údolni nádrz Prísecnice
Bergwitzsee
Schladitzer See
Talsperre Kriebstein
Talsperre Saidenbach
Kiesgrube Eilenburg
Industrieabsetzanlage Helmsdorf
Talsperre Carlsfeld
Talsperre Sosa
Stausee Glauchau
Langer Rodaer See
Speicherbecken Schadebach
Talsperre Kössern
Neuhauser See
Wörlitzer See
Muldestausee
Talsperre Muldenberg
Talsperre Neunzehnhain II
Talsperre Cranzahl
Talsperre Lichtenberg
Talsperre Rauschen-bach
údolni nádrz Fláje
Pump-speicherwerk Markersbach
10 0 10 Kilometers
Staedte MuldeElbeSeen MuldeFluesse Mulde2 Active modules
Main working steps
Mulde
Water availability
Basic data
Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning
Losses / releases of wetland areas
• selection of relevant areas (larger 1000 ha)
• digital elevation model
• soils and land use
Main working steps
Water availability
Basic data
Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning
Losses/releases of wetland areas
Other types of losses / demands:
Water transfers, evaporation from large water surfaces, areas of groundwater draw-down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users
Main working steps
Water availability
Basic data
Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning
Other types of losses/demands:
Water transfers, evaporation from large standing waters, areas of groundwater draw-down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users
Reservoirs, dams, managed lakes / remaining pits from lignite mining
• maximum capacity
• monthly size of active storage capacity
• monthly division of storage capacity with respective beneficiaries (users)
• ranking order for water supply
• monthly storage capacity for replenishment, ranking order for replenishment
• specifications regarding combined reservoir operation
Losses/releases of wetland areas
Main working steps
Water availability
3 Specific modules
Main working steps
Socioeconomic evaluation functions
Consideration of water quality aspects in water allocation
Consideration of wetlands
Water availability
Selected wetlands in the Elbe lowland for integrationIn WBalMo
Main working steps
Water availability
Modell WBalMo Spreewald I Modell WBalMo Spreewald II
Example: WBalMo Spreewald
Main working steps
Generalization
Water availability
4 Implementation and testing the overall model
Main working steps
5 Conflict analysis, development and analysis of management alternatives
Water availability main working steps
water resources water use
water availability
Considerations of socio-economic development and climate change
Implementation of the long term water management model according to status quo
water management
Bo
tto
m u
p
actors
Water availability main working steps
water resources water use
water availability
Implementation of the long term water management model according to different frameworks of development
water management
Scenario of socio-economic development and climate changeScenario of socio-economic development and climate changeScenario of socio-economic development
and climate change
To
p d
ow
n
scientists
Water availability
water managementwater management
water availabilitywater availability
main working steps
water resources water use
water availability
Developing water management strategies
water management
Scenario of socio-economic development and climate changeScenario of socio-economic development and climate changeScenario of socio-economic development
and climate change
Water availability
Basic data
Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning
Other types of losses/demands:
Water transfers, evaporation from large standing waters, areas of groundwater draw-down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users
Reservoirs, dams, managed lakes
Losses/releases of wetland areas
main working steps
Water availability
Basic data
Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning
Other types of losses/demands:
Water transfers, evaporation from large standing waters, areas of groundwater draw-down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users
Reservoirs, dams, managed lakes
Losses/releases of wetland areas
Scenario of socio-economic development
main working steps
Water availability
water uses
Legal water supply permits / Water requirement as specified by water resources management planning
Other types of losses/demands:
Water transfers, evaporation from large standing waters, areas of groundwater draw-down, minimum environmental flow, seepage, flow rate to sustain water quality, flow rate to support users
Reservoirs, dams, managed lakes
Losses/releases of wetland areas
Scenario of socio-economic development
water resources
Hydrological structure of Elbe river basin
Scenario of climate change
main working steps
Modeled with SWIM (Sub-project II)
Water availability
6 Evaluation of management alternatives, multicriteria analysis
Main working steps
see Presentation Project V
Water availability Conclusions
Project III – essential component of GLOWA IIProject I: Integration und -coordination Integrative Methodological Approach GLOWA-Elbe (IMA)
Regional actors, decision bodies
Frame of Development Project II: Regionalisation of Global Change
Glo
ba
lC
ha
ng
eM
ana
gem
ent
lev
el
Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis
Management-options
Impact-analysis
Evaluation
Project IV:
Surface Water Quality
Nutrient entry
Cost-efficiency analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socio-economic Indicators
Project III:
Surface Water Availability
Run off regulation
Multi-criteria analysis
Eco-hydrological Indicators
Socio-economic Indicators
Pro
ject adviso
ry bo
ard
Water quantity(availability)Requirements
of water quality
Requirementsof flood mangagement
Water availability
• Stochastic long-term water management modeling (WBalMo) is the adequate basis to analyze the impact of global change on water availability and for the development of sustainable management strategies.
• The model structure enables the inclusion of socioeconomic evaluation ( Project V!).
• The modular concept guaranties high acceptance by water authorities (important for cooperation in model development).
• Methods and tools developed are helpful for implementing the EU Water Framework Directive.
Water availability
Contributors:
WASY Institute for Water Resources Planning and Systems Research Ltd.
Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus
Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape and
Land Use Research Federal Institut of Hydrology
Partners for socio-economic evaluation:
UFZ Environmental Reserch Centre
Technical University Berlin
WB
alM
o E
lbe
Water availability
Laufzeit 1Gleichzeitigkeit aller Prozesse
t0 t0t0
Exemplarisch durchflußaufhöhende Prozesse
Effekte treten sofort und vollständig bis zum Wirkungsknoten des nächsten Prozesses auf
In allen Profilen gilt dieselbe Zeit
Water availability
Laufzeit 2Laufzeitproblem im Bilanzmodell
t0 t0t0
dt2 > 0 dt1 > 0
? ?
In allen Profilen gilt dieselbe Zeit
Fließzeit Das Ergebnis der historischen Prozesse ist unbekannt
Water availability
Laufzeit 3Lösung des Laufzeitproblems
t2=f(dt1+dt2) t0t1=f(dt1)
dt2’ = 0 dt1’ = 0
Berücksichtigung der historischen Prozesse zu den Zeitpunkten t2, t1, …
Transformationen der Fließzeiten
Effekte treten (im Modell) sofort und vollständig bis zum Wirkungsknoten des nächsten Prozesses auf