Post on 11-Oct-2020
transcript
The 6th Scientific PhD Seminar of
the WISDOM project
WATER BALANCE AND
TRANSBOUNDARY IMPACTS
IN THE MEKONG DELTA
SOUTHERN INSTITUTE OF WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
658 Vo Van Kiet Blvd, District 5, HCM City, Vietnam Tel: +84 8 38380989 Fax: +84 8 39235028
Website: www.siwrr.org.vn
Contents
Overview the Mekong River basin
Water balance in the Mekong Delta
Transboundary Impacts
Impacts to Water requirements
Impacts to hydrology regime in Kratie
Impacts to salinity Intrusion in Mekong Delta
Impact assessment
Considerations
Overview of the Mekong River Basin
No Country Area in the
MK river
basin (km2)
% of the
MK river
basin
% of the
country area
% of water
flow
1
2
China
Myanmar
165.000
24.000
21
3
-
-
16
2
3
4
5
6
Laos
Thailand
Cambodia
Vietnam (MD
& CH)
202.000
184.000
155.000
65.000
25
22
20
9
97
36
86
20
35
18
18
11
Total area
(km2)
795.000 100 Total
annual flow
475 km3
% contribution of water flow in MRB
Dry season
Wet season
The Mekong Delta
Total area of 39,700 km2 or 12.% of
area of Vietnam with 700 km sea lines,
Cultivated area is about 2.4 million
hectares with 7 crops per 2 years,
The population is about 18 million
peoples,
The Mekong Delta contributes 20%
of GDP,
Rice production is at 24.3 millions
tons (55% of country).
Month
Issues
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Flood
Salinity intrusion
Acid sulfate soil
and acid water
Drought
Bank Erosion
Sediment
Pollution
Water-related problems in Mekong Delta
Addition threat: upstream development, CC & SWLR
Rainfalls in the Mekong Delta
Rainfalls isoline in the Mekong Delta
River network in the MD
• The Mekong and Bassac rivers flow to the
East Sea via nine river mouths as Tieu, Dai,
Ba Lai, Ham Luong, Co Chien , Cung Hau,
Dinh An, Ba Thac and Tran De.
• Vaico River system runs parallel to the east
of the Mekong River.
• Cai River, My Thanh, Ganh Hao, Ong Doc,
Bay Hap are tidal rivers flow to the West
and East Sea.
• The canal systems have a high density, with
a total of 30,000 - 40,000km of primary and
secondary canals in the Mekong Delta.
Hydrology regime in the MD
Seasonal flooding in the Mekong Delta begins
in months Jun-Jul and ends in months Nov -
Dec, with an average peak flow entering the
delta of around 28,000-30,000 m3/s. The
seasonal average dry flow is about 3,000-5,000
m3/s. Both high and low flood regimes prevail
for about 6 months.
Total average annual river flow in the MD is
~408 billion m3 (2000 - 2008 at Tan Chau and
Chau Doc stations). Flooding over the border
region accounts for 14-18% of the total flood
into the territory of Vietnam (estimated 57
billion m3) and surface water by rain on the
plains accounts for 11% of the whole water
volume (estimated 45 billion m3).
Month Q-Tan Chau
(m3/s)
Q-Chau Doc
(m3/s)
Jan 6.258 1.325
Feb 4.028 741
Mar 2.580 478
Apr 2.244 410
May 3.032 567
Jun 7.391 1.344
Jul 12.756 2.826
Aug 17.849 4.673
Sep 19.907 5.862
Oct 18.234 5.534
Nov 13.358 3.720
Dec 9.212 2.228
Qmax 19.907 5.862
Qtb 9.737 2.476
Qmin 2.244 410
Qavg dry season 4.559 958
Qavg wet season 14.916 3.993
Year Tan Chau Chau Doc
1998 7,184 1,819
2000 12,093 3,323
2001 11,540 3,134
2003 8,905 2,047
2004 9,166 2,183
2005 9,435 2,422
2006 10,055 2,463
Max 12,093 3,323
Mean 9,768 2,484
Min 7,184 1,819
Water level & Discharge of high floods at Tan Chau and Chau Doc
Year Tan Chau Chau Doc
Hmax (m) Qmax (m3/s) Hmax (m) Qmax (m3/s)
1961 5,11 28.800 4,94 7.840
1978 4,94 25.600 4,50 7.160
1991 4,80 24.300 4,31 7.660
1994 4,67 23.920 4,27 7.290
1996 5,03 23.200 4,60 8.560
2000 5,06 25.500 4,90 7.660
2011 4,86 26.200 4,23 8.170
Using IQQM model to analyze the water requirements in the
Mekong Delta
• Time series of hydrological data from 1985-2007
• Irrigated areas of 2000, 2030 and 2060
Water requirements
Industry and domestic use
Irrigation
Water demands in Mekong Delta
Min
Tbinh Max
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12
(m3/s
)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Min 864 923 454 167 360 283 95 36 19 43 100 469
Tbinh 1142 1111 586 568 714 363 271 71 54 72 284 778
Max 1291 1196 710 778 1214 619 606 130 108 117 500 1000
(Data from 1985 - 2007)
Max water demands in the MD
-
500,00
1.000,00
1.500,00
2.000,00
2.500,00
3.000,00
2007
2030
2060
Max water requirement for Irrigation
Legends
Months in
m3/s
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007
2030
2060
Water requirements for domestic use
Legends
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007
1,568.45
1,818.55 765.84
1,733.89 511.61 220.48 184.24 131.78 66.18 24.78
1,143.09
1,610.43
2030
1,903.65
2,207.37 942.95
1,781.04 529.23 236.13 201.55 148.80 83.69 42.28
1,383.12
1,936.57
2060
1,417.69
1,635.92 720.62
2,789.12 901.93 419.13 354.60 265.51 150.49 77.61
1,010.44
1,466.20
POPULATION INCREASE
IRRIGATED AREA INCREASE
HYDROPOWER DAMS INCREASE
DSF (Decision Support Framework)
SWAT
IQQM
MIKE 11
Tool for analyzing
Timeseries spatial
DA
TA
BA
SE
SWAT and IQQM
SWAT IQQM-
Tonlesap lake
MIKE 11
Models using for assessement
Population development in the LMB
Countries National
population
in 2000
(millions)
Rural
area
(%)
The rate of
population
growth(%)
Population and projected
population in LMB
2000 2010 2020
Cambodia 13.1 84 2.3 9.8 13.0 16.5
Lao PDR 5.3 76 2.6 4.9 5.2 7.6
Thailand 62.8 78 1.0 23.1 24.5 28.2
Vietnam 78.1 80 1.4 16.9 17.3 21.8
Total 159.3 54.7 60 74.1
Irrigated areas in Lower Mekong Basin
Locations Numbers of
Irrigation
systems
Wet
season
areas
(ha)
Dry
season
areas
(ha)
Three crops
- areas (ha)
Irrigated
areas
(ha)
Laos 2.532 224.232 151.940 224.232
Thailand 8.764 (840.425) (100.000) 941.425
Cambodia 1.012 248.842 181.506 392.117
Vietnam MD* 85 1.683.094 1.417.549 351.506 1.683.094
Vietnam CH 76 36.008 7.290 36.008
Total 12.469 3.276.876
Source: MRC 2001
Potential suitability land for agricultural
development in LMB
Countries
Suitability land
(million ha)
Irrigated area in
the dry season
(1,000 ha)
Cultivated
existing
(%)
Irrigated area
in the wet
season (%)
Laos 2.7 131.8 2 17
Vietnam CH 0.4 37.0 10 30
Vietnam
MD*
3.3 3,302.2 100 22
Thailand 12.2 155.9 1 12
Cambodia 11.2 250.0 2 11
Total 29.8 3.976.9 13.4 14
Existing and potential Hydropower in
the Mekong River Basin
Existing Hydropower Potential Hydropower
Existing Hydropower in the entire basin is about 53,000 MW, in
which Upper Mekong Basin (China & Myanmar): 23,000MW;
Lower Mekong Basin: 30,000 MW
Hydropower in main stream: 13,000 MW
Hydropower in tributaries: Laos 13,000 MW, Cambodia 2,200 MW,
Vietnam 2,000 MW
Hydropower dams in China
Projects Designed
Capacity
(MW)
Power
(GWh)
Volume
(Million m3)
Basin Area
(km2)
Qtk
(m3/s)
Planned
Gongguoqiao 750 1,670 510 97,300 985
Xiaowan 4,200 18,540 15,130 113,300 1,220 2010-12
Manwan 1,500 7,780 920 114,500 1,230 1993
Dachaosan 1,350 7,090 880 121,000 1,230 2001
Nuozhadu 5,500 22,670 24,670 144,700 1,750 2013-16
Jinhong 1,500 8,470 1,040 149,100 1,840 2012-13
Ganlanba 150 1,010 151,800 1,880
Mengsong 600 3,740 160,000 2,020
Total 15,550 74,060
Total designed water heights of hydropower
dams in China equal the differences of
normal water level of two reservoirs, more
than 700 Km length of Lancang River (the
Upstream of Mekong River) could not be
natural river