Post on 08-Jul-2015
description
transcript
What doshippers and carriers
think?
Monthly trend survey
for November 2011
© Zsolt Kosinszky
Summary for Nov 2011 (vs Oct 2011)
© Zsolt Kosinszky
Shippers expect Carriers
5+% increase volumes 5+% increase
58% expect more transport capacity 53% expect less
up to 5% increase transport rates up to 5% increase
2.32% rise diesel prices 3.21% rise
up to 5% increase cost for carriers up to 2% increase
Survey methodology and base data
• anonymous survey
• between October 19-28, 2011
• 516 respondents with activities on all
continents
• participants: buyers (shippers) and
sellers (carriers) of transport services
and other supply chain players
(e.g. infrastructure providers,
consultants, media, education)
• about 50% of respondents are high
level decision makers
• base data: October 2011
© Zsolt Kosinszky
445
182243
121 111
0
100
200
300
400
500
Europe The Americas
Asia Africa Australia and
Oceania
46%53%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
shipper carrier other
51%
39%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
shipper carrier other
Current supply chain challenges
© Zsolt Kosinszky
Challenge Problem
Find the right carriers (spot and long term)
Rates not competitive, insufficient quality of service, long tendering process, complicated spot sourcing
Operationalefficiency
Processes not in place or not working, long lead times, suboptimal and costly operations, low visibility (information), decreasing service level, high inventory
Capacity management
Insufficient load and manufacturing optimization, backup providers unknown, jammed supply chain
Getting greener while saving
Most solutions are costly/take long time to put in place and/or take effect
KPIs No or bad data supporting decision making, no analysis, lack of benchmarks
42%38%
27%23% 23%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Shippers
Current supply chain challenges
© Zsolt Kosinszky
Challenge Problem
Operational efficiency Highly manual processes, insufficient visibility, short term actions
Find new customers Huge competition, extremely resource intensive structures
Financing/payment Complex rating systems, numerous extra cost types, credit issues, insufficient collaboration
Find the right subcontractors (spot and long term)
Highly resource intensive processes, outdated applications (freight exchange/loadboard)
Capacity management Insufficient network optimization, insufficient visibility, short term view, collaboration issues
47%
40% 40%
33%
27%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Carriers
Root causes of supply chain problems
• most of the major issues (finding the right carrier, improving operational efficiency, capacity management and finding new customers) are due to insufficient knowledge/choices and information in the supply chain
• getting greener while saving costs is only possible if an instant solution is found
• KPIs are only useful if they are based on a central approach/application and are potentially shared with industry peers
• financing is partly problematic due to credit issues, partly there is an underlying concern: only more equipment is the way forward?
• payment issues need a legal framework
The above issues will be focused on in upcoming surveys and white papers.
© Zsolt Kosinszky
Expected diesel price in Nov 2011
© Zsolt Kosinszky
2.32%
3.21%
1.39%
2.04%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
shippers carriers others all
What they expect
3.55%
2.40%
-0.47%
2.06%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
shippers carriers others all
What they think the market expects
While shippers (2.32%) believe that the market (2.06%) expects a somewhat higher price than them (2.55%), carriers (3.21%) think that the market (2.06%) expects a significantly lower price than them (2.40%).
The base price is the September 2011 average diesel fuel price per litre in Germany: 1.41 EUR. (source: http://www.theaa.com/onlinenews/allaboutcars/fuel/2011/september2011.pdf)
Transport rate changes in Nov 2011
• 54% expect higher rates
• 35% expect no change
• 35% expect an increase
of up to 5%
• both shippers and carriers
believe the market expects
a rate increase of up
to 5%
© Zsolt Kosinszky
15%
8%
15% 15%
35%
4%8%
0% 0%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
What shippers expect
67%
27%
40%
65%
19%
35%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
rate increase no change rate increase of up to 5%
What shippers and carriersthink the market expects
Changes in carriers’ costs in Nov 2011
• 60% expect higher costs
• 40% expect no change
• 41% expect an increase
of up to 2%
• while carriers foresee a
cost increase of only up to
2%, shippers expect one of
up to 5%
© Zsolt Kosinszky
7% 5% 7%
41% 40%
0% 0% 0% 0%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
What carriers expect
80%
13%
60%
81%
19%
54%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
cost increase no change cost increase of up to 2%
cost increase of up to 5%
What shippers and carriersthink the market expects
Transport capacity in Nov 2011
• while shippers rather
expect more capacity
(58% of respondents),
carriers believe it will
be less than in October
2011 (47% of respondents)
• conversely, carriers think the market expects an increase in transport capacity (53% of respondents)
© Zsolt Kosinszky
58%62%
47%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
What they expect What they think the market expects
Volumes in Nov 2011
• both shippers and carriers
are rather positive about
business expectations
• both shippers and carriers
foresee that the market will
grow, although opinions about
no growth are also strong
© Zsolt Kosinszky
60%
13%34%
54%
23%33%
0%20%40%60%80%
volume increase no change volume increase of 5+%
What shippers and carriersexpect
48%
31% 28%
42%
31% 27%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
volume increase no change volume increase of 5+%
What shippers and carriersthink the market expects
Thank you, sharing, next survey, contact
Firstly, if you are one of the 516 respondents who took this survey, thank you for your time!
In case you found this survey useful and/or interesting, please feel free to share it with anyone.
If you were so kind to participate in the November 2011 survey, please take max. 5 minutes to answer some questions here:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dExSNE5hUF9wNUlnZlZ5cXlWeWVzTFE6MQ
If you would like to get in touch with me, please write to kosinszky.zsolt@gmail.com or contact me via LinkedIn http://be.linkedin.com/in/zsoltkosinszkyor feel free to join the Collective Transport Sourcing group on LinkedIn:http://www.linkedin.com/groups?about=&gid=4128642
© Zsolt Kosinszky