What’s in an A?Pest Violations in NYC RestaurantsMichael JohnsMetis, Project Luther10/28/16

“Cronut-Loving Mouse Frolics Inside Dominique Ansel Bakery”

NYC Restaurant Inspections

Program began in 2010

Point System

‘A’: 0-13 points

‘B’: 14-27

‘C’: 28+

Inspection Checklist

NYC Restaurant Inspections

Grades improving over time

Over 80% of restaurants received an A

NYC Restaurant Inspections

Grades improving over time

Over 80% of restaurants received an A

Can we predict Pest Violations?

Target Data

NYC Restaurant Inspection Data- 10/20/15 to 10/20/16

- Indicator of any pest violations during last inspection

- 24,000 restaurants- 85% A grades- 45% pest violations

Neighborhood Factors

Rodent Inspection:- “Active Signs”

- “Bait laid”

% Living in Poverty

311 Complaints:- Rodents

- Overflowing trash bins

- Unsanitary conditions

Restaurant Factors

Food Type: Top 20- “American”

- “Chinese”

- “Cafe”

- etc.

Date of Inspection:- Quarter

- Month

- Day of week

311 + Poverty

311 + Poverty + Food Type

311 + Poverty + Food Type + Inspection Date

Best Model:

Accuracy: 70%

Precision: .62

Recall: .67

F1: .64

Feature Importances

Conclusion

Predicting pest violations seems plausible

Timing effects are curious

More data or more model?

Thank You!Questions?