Post on 23-Feb-2016
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Updating the IOOS-NCEP-MARACOOS Interaction: The Partnership is Working!
“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”
Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction
Director
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MARACOOS MeetingBaltimore, MD
November 1, 2012
Outline
• “The Weatherman is not a Moron”• NCEP Enables Bay Forecasts and
Regional Coastal and Great Lakes Models• Extending Prediction Models into “Non-
Traditional” Areas• Ongoing Discussions with Regional
Associations• Summary
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THE WEATHERMAN IS NOT A MORON
IN THE HOCUS POCUS REALM OF PREDICTING THE FUTURE, WEATHER FORECASTING STANDS OUT AS AN AREA OF GENUINE, MEASURABLE PROGRESS. YOUR OWN EXPERIENCE MAY DIFFER. BY NATE SILVER
September 9, 2012
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From the inside, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction looked like a cross between a submarine command center and a Goldman Sachs trading floor.
Quoted from “The Weatherman is not a Moron” New York Times Magazine, September 9, 2012
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• Weather prediction has progressed when most other predictions have failed
• Progress can be “measured”/verified in a quantitative way
• Prediction capabilities include uncertainty and have already been integrated into key decision support
• Actually goes as far as stating the NWS does the best job in conveying uncertainty in forecast products
“The Weatherman is not a Moron” - Nate Silver, New York Times
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Hurricane Sandy
Day 7 ForecastValid 8AM Monday Oct 29
Verifying AnalysisValid 8AM Monday Oct 29
Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Saturday, October 27, 2012
Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Sunday, October 28, 2012
Wave Watch III model output valid 8PM Mon Oct 3036 hour Wave height forecast (ft)
72 hour Precipitation Forecast: 8AM Saturday Oct 27 – 8AM Tuesday Oct 30Issued 6AM, Sat Oct 27, 2012
Probability of 48 hour snowfall > 12 inchesIssued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012
Valid 8PM, Sunday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30
3 day Snow Accumulation (inches)Issued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012
Valid 8PM Saturday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30
Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System
(ESTOFS)Total Water Level (feet)
30 hour forecastInitial time: 2PM Sunday, Oct 28
Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System
(ESTOFS)Storm Surge relative to MSL(feet)
30 hour forecastInitial time: 2PM Sunday, Oct 28
ESTOFS Surge Guidance from 2AM Sunday Oct 28
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NCEP Enables Bay Forecasts and Regional Coastal and Great Lakes Models
NOAA Response to 2004 SAB NCEP Ocean Modeling Review Panel
• Major Recommendation #1: Integrate Ocean Modeling– NCEP will provide a comprehensive
operational national backbone ocean and coastal ocean modeling capability across time-scales of a few hours to a year or more.
– NOAA will integrate appropriate ocean, coastal ocean, estuarine and Great Lakes models, including NOS Regional operational models, into NCEP’s operational modeling system.
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Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMNMMBGFS, Canadian Global Model
Regional NAMWRF NMMB
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Refreshfor Aviation
Climate ForecastSystem
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s Model Production Suite
GFS MOM4NOAH Sea Ice
NOAH Land Surface Model
Coupled
Global DataAssimilation
OceansHYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
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Regi
onal
DA
Satellites + Radar99.9%
~2B Obs/Day
NOS – OFS• Great Lakes• Northern
Gulf of Mex• Columbia R.
Bays• Chesapeake• Tampa • Delaware
SpaceWeather
ENLIL
Regi
onal
DA
Sea Nettle
Forecast
• First global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at NOAA/NCEP.• Based on a 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) –
Community model developed under National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP)– Led by Navy/FSU
• Attributes– 1/12th degree horizontal resolution– Run once per day out six days– 32 vertical hybrid layers
• Earth System Modeling Framework compatible
• Provide boundary conditions for coastal models
• Implemented operationally on October 25, 2011
• Output: global sea surface height and three dimensional fields of temperature, salinity, density and velocity 22
Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
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Bay Models Running on NCEP’s Operational Computers
• Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System
• Columbia River Estuary Operational Forecast System
• Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System
• Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System
• Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System
Advances – over previous versions running in NOS• Increased resolution, reliability, decreased run time• Improved real time and backup input fields (winds, etc)• Coastal ocean backbone to support navigation, hazards response,
ecological User comments: value usefulness, accessibility, reliability• Outputs used by USGS, USCG, NOS/OR&R, Applied Science
Associates, etc. in real-time setting. • Web products used daily by coastal managers, maritime, navigation
and emergency response communities.• Reliability and timely delivery of products are most important.Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site:
• Water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations
• Time series plots of selected locations, contour and vector map plots, animations
Model data sets on NOAA’s WOC and CO-OPS THREDDS, NOMADS• Station/point netCDF files (6-minute output): • Time series at selected stations• Gridded model output netCDF files (hourly output)
NOS Coastal Operational Forecast System Products:
• Runs on NCEP computers to produce four times daily forecast guidance of total water level, current
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Great Lakes Operational Forecast System
speed and direction, and water temperature for each of the Great Lakes.
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• Coupled Models: Atmosphere – Ocean – Land provide opportunities for ecosystem prediction: beach/water quality, health, ”critters”
Extending Prediction Models into “Non-Traditional” Areas
Coupling modelsand linking products
Regional Earth System Modeling
An Example of Operational Ecological Forecasting (Sea Nettles)
• Global Ocean Forecasts
• Ecological Forecasts– Forecasting Sea Nettles
• Bay Forecasts
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Ecosystem Prediction
28Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on October 4, 2012
• Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 2-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay
• Generated since 2002 in a research mode
• Important for water management and recreational purposes
• Put into operational production suite April, 2012
* Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers
Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay
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Surface Water Salinity Forecast GuidanceTampa Bay Operational Forecast System
Surface Water Temperature Forecast GuidanceTampa Bay Operational Forecast System
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Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom BulletinRegion: Southwest FloridaMonday, 27 August 2012NOAA Ocean ServiceNOAA Satellite and Information ServiceNOAA National Weather Service
Satellite chlorophyll image with possible HAB areas shown by red polygon(s).
NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System
Relies on satellite imagery, field observations, models, public health reports and buoy data to assess and predict bloom conditions, location and movements.
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Ongoing Discussions with Regional Associations
NCEP interactions with IOOS, RAs, MARACOOS
• Modeling and Assimilation Steering Committee (Tolman, Ji): ~2005-2008
• HFR steering committee (Ji-NCEP, S. Glen-MARACOOS): 2009-• “Super Regional Testbed” (SURA): 2010-2012• Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed: est. 2012• MARACOOS-NCEP meeting at NCEP: June 2012• Tony Siebers: member, MARACOOS Users Council and
Inundation Working Group• “Azafran” Discussions (Uccellini, Kuska)• Meeting at Rutgers: Oct. 2012
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Rutgers Whiteboard
High Priority
• Outcomes driving the process– Water/Beach quality?– Health?– Food security?
• Public/private sector• Operational Concept – Central model enabling
local model? Connecting atmospheric and ocean/coastal models?– Model Access (NOMADS)– Data Access (gliders, HF radar)
• Computing capacity34
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HYCOM
REGIONAL
Bay Models
DelawareChesapeake
TampaN. Gulf of MexColumbia R.
Local Coastal Models
GFS NAM Work
StationWRF
DATA
DATA
NOS/NCEPConnecting Atmospheric and Ocean/Coastal Models
27 kmwind grids
4 kmwind grids
Summary
• Weather-Ocean interaction envisioned in the 2004 SAB recommendations is alive and well
• Lessons learned from weather community are applicable to emerging coastal services
• NOAA/NOS remains committed to enabling the rapid spin up of coastal and ecosystem forecasting and serving the needs of the entire community (“enable”, not control)
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